Aaron Donald's return to the Los Angeles Rams has shook up the NFL, but could it also lead to headaches for sports betting operators down the road?
Key Takeaways
- All but one major sportsbook is listing Aaron Donald in the Comeback Player of the Year market.
- The AP advised voters of an updated award requirement in 2024.
- Donald has taken significant action in the market since Sunday.
Donald, one of the fiercest defensive tackles of the modern era and a likely first-ballot Hall of Famer, announced his retirement in March 2024. He ended it on Sunday, deciding to rejoin a defense that now boasts Myles Garrett, one of the league’s best pass rushers, and strengthening the team that’s already the Super Bowl favorite.
Months of speculation that Donald would return led sportsbooks to bake that anticipated addition into Rams’ futures odds, so there weren’t many significant changes. Donald is also among the favorites in the Comeback Player of the Year market at multiple major sportsbooks and was instantly a popular selection among bettors.
heeeeeeeee’s baaaaaccccckkkk pic.twitter.com/tP9yfp3mW6
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) August 30, 2026
There is some concern, though, about whether or not the famed defender actually qualifies for the Associated Press’ end-of-the-year honor.
That hasn’t stopped most operators from putting Donald’s Comeback Player of the Year odds out there, but what happens if he’s deemed unqualified down the road or there is contention in the voting process? How will operators handle the market?
Those were enough questions that one sportsbook told Covers on Wednesday that it removed Donald from its odds list.
“We pulled Aaron Donald and reached out to the Associated Press for clarification about his eligibility,” said Adam Landeka, theScore Bet VP of Sportsbook Trading. “We wanted to be extra safe and fair to customers as we didn’t want to offer a selection that can’t win.”
Currently, theScore Bet is the only major operator to not offer odds on Donald in the category.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Taking issue
The issues with the award, which is voted on by a panel of NFL media, stem from how it was determined after the 2023 season. Quarterback Joe Flacco won Comeback Player of the Year after joining the Cleveland Browns midseason and leading them to the playoffs, taking home the honor over Buffalo Bills defender Damar Hamlin.
Even though he was a candidate on the ballot, NFL pundits believed Flacco came back from a poor previous season, not real adversity, which had been addressed by the AP in the previous season, according to a CBS Sports report.
“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season,” the media group said. “The decision to provide this guidance was made last December but could not be implemented for the 2023 awards because the season was almost completed.”
Where does that leave Donald? He’s obviously not coming back from an injury, and the adversity would be returning to football after a two-year layoff. If the AP doesn’t put Donald on the ballot at the end of the season, could panel members still write him in and he gets enough votes to take home the honor?
That would result in a lot of payouts for operators, but there could also be disgruntled customers if he doesn’t get any votes because of the ambiguity. Injury protection promotions and common house rules don’t typically apply to futures like this.
Market breakdown
For now, that doesn’t appear to be slowing the market’s action.
BetMGM reported this week that nearly 53% of its Comeback Player of the Year Award tickets and 41% of the handle since Sunday have come in on Donald with odds of +800.
Aaron Donald +800 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year at @BetMGM
— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 2, 2026
52.6% of bets (most) are on Donald to win Comeback Player of the Year since signing with the @RamsNFL
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
The Rams star didn’t land on BetMGM’s futures market until Sunday’s signing, opening at +800 heading into Week 1, which begins on Thursday for the Rams. Donald has already received 5.2% of the sportsbook’s handle. That’s more than everyone listed except Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Vikings QB Kyler Murray.
Mahomes has dominated the futures market, receiving more than 45% of the money and 18.7% of the bets. Donald has taken 4.2% of the total action already, so a lot of bettors are counting on him to be eligible for the award, even though Donald’s status seems to fall outside of the AP criteria.
FanDuel is offering the shortest odds on the Rams defender among major operators at +700. Only Mahomes (+200) and Murray (+500) are ahead of Donald in the sportsbook’s market.
DraftKings has Donald fourth with odds of +750 to win the comeback honor. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (+400) joins Mahomes and Murray in front of Donald. Caesars lists Donald at +850.
Most sportsbooks keep their futures markets up throughout the season, so there could still be great shifts in the odds and handle, but for now, there doesn’t seem to be enough concern from the vast majority of operators. That could also change.
