The heavyweight showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots is the unlikeliest Super Bowl matchup since odds were first tracked.
Key Takeaways
- The Seahawks (+6,000) and Patriots (+8,000) were both huge preseason underdogs.
- Only one Super Bowl champion on record had longer odds - the 1999 St. Louis Rams.
- Super Bowl MVP favorite Sam Darnold opened with +6,000 odds to win regular-season MVP.
The multibillion-dollar sports betting industry wasn’t built by sportsbooks consistently losing. That’s why it’s shocking whenever the Vegas prognosticators miss the mark to such an extreme degree.
BetMGM’s Super Bowl LX odds opened with the Seahawks at +6,000 and the Patriots at +8,000, according to Sports Odds History. The Seahawks were only +2,800 to finish atop the NFC, while the Pats were +3,000 to win the AFC title.
A Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl matchup was given +100,000 odds. That means that a $10 wager would’ve won $10,000 for anyone bold enough to go against the grain.
Preseason odds from @BetMGM
— Sports Odds History by Covers (@SOHistory) January 26, 2026
New England vs Seattle Super Bowl LX matchup 1000-1
New England to win AFC: 30-1
Seattle to win NFC: 28-1
Regardless of who wins in two weeks, the only Super Bowl champions with longer preseason odds in Sports Odds History’s database will be the 1999 St. Louis Rams, who opened at +15,000.
The second-largest underdogs to ultimately win were the 2001 Patriots (+6,000), followed by the 1981 San Francisco 49ers (+5,000), and no team longer than +1,200 has won since the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018.
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Where did this come from?
While the Seahawks and Patriots are standing tall among the rest of their competitors, neither team set the NFL ablaze early in the year.
Both lost in Week 1; in the Patriots’ case, to the Las Vegas Raiders, who finished the year 3-14. The Pats started 1-2, while the Seahawks were 3-2 after Week 5.
Since suffering their second losses, the two teams produced a combined record of 29-2, both finishing the regular season 14-3. They did not face each other during the regular season.
The Seahawks are favored by four to 5.5 points in early Super Bowl LX odds. Sportsbooks opened with the Seahawks anywhere from -3.5 to -5, but early interest has already caused the lines to move a considerable amount.
Seventy-one percent of bets and 76% of the money are on the Seahawks to cover the spread at FanDuel. DraftKings also reported 78% of bets and 82% of the handle in favor of Seattle.
Super Bowl MVP odds upset?
In a season of upsets, it’s only fitting that the Super Bowl MVP will be someone who flew completely under the radar.
Sam Darnold, DraftKings’ Super Bowl MVP odds leader at +130, opened the year at +6,000 to win regular-season MVP. Drake Maye, who is +235 for the Super Bowl MVP, was +5,000 in MVP odds at the beginning of the year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+550) had whopping MVP odds of +50,000. Nobody else who will feature in the Super Bowl was given feasible MVP odds across multiple sportsbooks.
