Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg met with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour in 2025 to explore a possible acquisition, NPR reports.
Instead, Meta now has a team of developers working on its own prediction market app.
Key Takeaways
- Meta and Kalshi CEOs reportedly met last year to discuss a possible acquisition.
- Sources say talks stalled due to Kalshi’s reluctance to sell and/or Meta's concerns about Kalshi's ongoing legal issues.
- Meta is currently developing its own “play money” prediction market app.
Meta was reportedly looking into acquiring the prediction market operator, but Kalshi’s legal entanglements may have prevented discussions from proceeding.
The abundance of lawsuits involving Kalshi and state regulators has dominated prediction market news. Kalshi’s legal issues primarily center on the prediction market operator’s sports event contracts, which launched in January of last year. In many ways, Kalshi’s contracts mimic sports betting, raising questions about their legality and regulation.
Prediction markets are currently regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The fledgling sector feels that its federal affiliation puts it above state gambling laws. States disagree.
Legal issues may not have been the only acquisition stumbling block. Mansour, who has overseen Kalshi’s substantial growth from the outset, may not have wanted to move forward on a deal with Zuckerberg, according to NPR.
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Meta moving forward
Instead of acquiring an existing prediction market company, Meta ultimately decided to develop its own product. Zuckerberg currently has a small team developing a “play money” prediction app. The app, currently dubbed Arena, would use AI to identify trending questions and topics, which would subsequently be used to launch contracts.
Meta has excess data storage capacity and AI computing power and is looking to lease some of it, according to Bloomberg. So, a new AI-driven app like Arena may be an easy fit. It might be a synergistic fit with Meta’s existing social media apps, which include Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Threads.
