Coming off of Selection Sunday and the reveal of the NCAA Tournament bracket, top prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket reported more than $60 million in March Madness future champion market trades.
Duke and Michigan are fighting tooth and nail for the highest probability to win the tournament, according to users of both platforms.
Key Takeaways
- Michigan was the favorite or co-favorite at Kalshi and Polymarket on Sunday.
- FanDuel has Arizona as its favorite to win the National Championship.
- Prop markets for underdog upsets, seed combinations, and player performances are available at Kalshi.
As of the morning of Monday, March 16, Kalshi showed nearly $60 million in trades in its future champion market. Polymarket also reported $4.4 million in contract purchases.
Prediction market prices are determined by real-time supply and demand, meaning that consumers are responsible for the value of each outcome.
Kalshi users have Duke at a 22% chance to win the NCAA Tournament with contracts going for $.22 each. Michigan is close behind at 18%, although it had the highest probability (21.6%) of all contenders as of 8:00 a.m. ET on Sunday, March 15.
Polymarket has Duke and Michigan at 21% and 19% chances to win the tournament, respectively. Its consumers also had Michigan as a co-leader with Duke on Sunday.
Arizona is the consensus third-favorite, claiming a 17% probability at Kalshi and 16% at Polymarket. Defending champion Florida is the fourth of four teams with double-digit probabilities at both platforms (11% at both).
Here’s how those probabilities compare to the implied probabilities of March Madness odds at FanDuel.
| Team | Kalshi Probability | Polymarket Probability | FanDuel Probability (implied odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 22% | 21% | 20.8% |
| Michigan | 18% | 19% | 20.4% |
| Arizona | 17% | 16% | 22.7% |
| Florida | 11% | 11% | 11.1% |
OG.com, which is powered by Crypto.com, has the same top three (Duke 23%, Michigan 20%, Arizona 18%) as Kalshi and Polymarket. However, it interestingly has 16-seed Long Island University, Arizona’s first-round opponent, at a 14% chance. Florida is behind them at 12%.
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March Madness prop markets
Prediction markets aren’t limited only to contracts related to the eventual winner of the 68-team bracket. There are also a plethora of prop markets related to player and team performances.
Last year’s tournament was disappointing for underdogs nearly across the board in a historic year for the chalk. Kalshi users may purchase contracts related to the number of upsets that occur across 32 first-round matchups, including 6+ (77%), 7+ (55%), 8+ (36%), all the way up to 20+ (<1%).
On the flip side, Kalshi also has a market for the number of first seeds that will reach the Elite Eight. While all four (Houston, Florida, Auburn, Duke) qualified a year ago, Kalshi says there’s only a 31% chance the same happens this time around.
However, there is a 66% chance that a first seed wins March Madness, according to Kalshi. That number drops to 19% for a second seed and 10% for a third seed.
More March Madness prediction markets that are available to customers include:
- Player to record a triple-double (Yes 21%)
- #14 seed or higher to win a game (Yes 36%)
- Highest numerical seed to qualify for the Final Four (Three 62%)
- Sum of seeds in the National Championship game (Two 54%)
- Biggest upset seed margin (9+ 75%)
- First seed to lose in the first round (Yes 4%)
- And more…
March Madness history and outlook
As mentioned above, last year was historically unkind to underdogs. Four first seeds and three second seeds qualified for the Elite Eight, and the only vacant spot was filled by third-seed Texas Tech.
While Duke and Michigan are the favorites at different prediction platforms, the two wouldn’t be able to face off unless both reached the National Championship game.
That said, the two powerhouses already met at a neutral venue in Washington D.C. on Feb. 21. Duke won as a 2.5-point underdog, 68-63, behind 18 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists from National Player of the Year contender Cameron Boozer.
