A Polymarket user known only as romanticpaul earned more than $3,100 by betting on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's engagement on the prediction markets less than 24 hours before their news was announced.
Key Takeaways
- The trader purchased 5,180 "Yes" shares for about $2,046
- The couple confirmed their engagement on Instagram at 1:00 p.m. ET Tuesday
- The position paid out $5,180, resulting in a $3,134 profit
The trader had been purchasing "Yes" shares in the engagement market since late July, but significantly increased activity on Monday, buying more than 1,700 shares priced mostly under 40 cents each. On Tuesday, less than 15 minutes before Swift and Kelce posted their announcement on Instagram, the user added nearly 1,200 additional shares at prices under 50 cents.
Polymarket users wager on outcomes through shares worth a maximum of $1, depending on whether the event occurs. In this case, each share returned $1 if the couple confirmed their engagement in 2025.
With the announcement going live on Tuesday, romanticpaul's total position of 5,180 shares purchased for about $2,046 paid out $5,180, resulting in a profit of $3,134 for a 153% return.
The win reflects Polymarket's growing role in entertainment speculation, where pop culture outcomes like celebrity relationships can become significant trading opportunities alongside politics and global events.
Swift's engagement fuels Super Bowl halftime odds
Swift and Kelce's engagement announcement generated intense online reaction, but it also influenced speculation around the pop star's potential role at Super Bowl LX.
On federally regulated exchange, Kalshi, 61% of traders backed Swift to headline the halftime show in San Francisco next February, far ahead of Post Malone at 16% and Metallica at 11%.
Clues have added to speculation. During a recent appearance on Kelce's New Heights podcast, Swift discussed sourdough baking, a theme tied to San Francisco's cultural identity. She also mentioned the number 47 twice, which fans linked to Levi's Stadium, the venue for the 47th stop of her Eras Tour and the site of this season's showpiece.
Although Swift has never performed at the Super Bowl, her presence has become closely associated with the event through her relationship with Kelce. She was on the field in Las Vegas when the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers and appeared again last February when the Chiefs faced the Philadelphia Eagles in pursuit of a third consecutive title.
Kalshi eyes football wagering expansion
The surge in attention on Kalshi following Swift's Super Bowl odds coincides with the exchange's broader plans to expand into football wagering. Documents filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on August 18 outlined new contracts that mirror sportsbook offerings, including spreads, totals, and touchdown scorer markets.
The proposed products would allow wagers on team margins, point totals, and touchdowns in both professional and college football, though restrictions apply in some states. Kalshi positioned the move as a way to bring transparency and federal oversight to markets often dominated by illegal betting, which industry estimates are valued at $84 billion.
