Forget just spreads, totals, and parlays. Week 15 in the NFL changed and ended several popular picks in the futures markets and gave sportsbooks an early Christmas present.
Key Takeaways
- The Chiefs’ playoff elimination in Week 15 was an early win for the books.
- Patrick Mahomes held the most money in the MVP market at BetMGM.
- The Cowboys have just a 1% chance of reaching the postseason.
The Kansas City Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention with three games remaining after a 16-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, and star quarterback Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL, ending his 2025 campaign.
Just that event alone killed off a lot of Chiefs championship and Mahomes MVP tickets. Heading into last Sunday’s slate, the Chiefs had the third-highest handle percentage (11.7%) at theScore Bet - behind the Eagles and Bills - since the Super Bowl winner market opened.
For the first time since 2014, the Chiefs were taken off the board before Christmas, and the biggest liability at BetMGM already out is a win for the book.
Mahomes entered the season listed fourth on BetMGM’s MVP market. He finished the year with 5.5% of the tickets and 14% of the money, the most of any player in the market.
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Door closes
Kansas City was a bit of a long shot at this point in the season, anyway, moving from +1,700 after Week 13 to +5,000 after Week 14’s loss to the Houston Texans. The Chargers handed the Chiefs their fifth loss in the last six weeks, ending the postseason streak that included trips to the Super Bowl in five of the last six years.
Kansas City opened the season as the +600 favorite to win the Super Bowl last January at theScore Bet and was +800 when the season began. The Chiefs were also tied with the Ravens as co-favorites to win the AFC championship in January. Before Week 1, Kansas City had over 60% of the bets and handle to win the AFC West.
Before that November and December swoon, the Chiefs were -1,000 to make the playoffs and +600 to miss the postseason. TheScore Bet reported that 64% of the tickets were on the Chiefs to miss the playoffs, but 60% of the money backed them to reach the postseason.
The Chiefs were even the favorites at BetMGM to win it all heading into Week 9 and remained there until Week 12. They’re tied for third-most tickets and fifth in money at BetMGM.
Slim chance remains
Another of the most popular teams in sports betting is on the verge of collapse as well. Following a Week 15 loss to the Minnesota Vikings that dropped them to 6-7-1, the Dallas Cowboys have just a 1% chance to make the playoffs.
The NFC East squad is listed at +5,000 to reach the postseason at BetMGM, and its odds to win the Super Bowl have moved from as low as +4,500 in the preseason to +50,000 after Week 15.
Dallas is also BetMGM’s biggest liability to win the NFC, but the Cowboys, listed at +2,000 over the summer, plummeted to +25,000. They need to win out and the Eagles to lose their final three games for Dallas to win the division and clinch a playoff spot.
The Cowboys had 2.3% of the tickets and 1.6% of the money to win it all at BetMGM.
Packers lose Parsons
Linebacker Micah Parsons, whom the Cowboys traded to the Green Bay Packers in August, tore his ACL and is out for the season. The Packers saw their odds slip from +800 after Week 14 to +1,400 after Week 15’s loss to the Broncos and the injury to one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL.
Parsons was also the second most-bet player in the Defensive Player of the Year market, with 10.6% of the tickets and 12.7% of the money at BetMGM. However, he had fallen so far behind favorite Myles Garrett, who’s closing in on the single-season sack record, Parsons wasn’t going to win the award anyway.
