Texas and Penn State, the two teams with the most money backing them to win the National Championship, were both left unranked in the latest AP Top 25 poll.
Ohio State leads all teams in National Championship odds and popularity by tickets, while Oregon has shortened to +500 to win the national title at BetMGM sportsbook.
Key Takeaways
- Texas and Penn State are responsible for more than a quarter of the money wagered in National Championship futures
- Ohio State is back below where it opened when odds were first published (+450)
- Three teams ranked in the top 10 have less than 2% of tickets and of the handle
Both Texas and Penn State suffered shocking losses as outright favorites over the weekend.
Texas fell to Florida, 29-21, as a 4.5-point favorite, while Penn State was taken down by UCLA, 42-37, in the latter’s first win of the season as an enormous 24.5-point underdog.
The resultant impact was a massive recalibration in CFB futures odds and response from bettors. With the two heavyweights down to +1700 and +3000, respectively, bettors have their eyes set on the defending champions to repeat.
“Ohio State is now the most bet team by tickets to win the College Football Playoff after losses by Penn State and Texas,” said Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager, BetMGM. “We expect the Buckeyes and other undefeated teams to continue attracting action as long as they are winning.”
The Buckeyes are now +425 in National Championship odds, below where they opened the season (+450) and down from +500 a week ago. They have a sportsbook-leading 9.8% of tickets and 10.4% of the handle (third) backing them.
Oregon is down to +500 after being +600 last week and +700 at opening. Despite that, their 5.1% of tickets and 4.2% split of the handle are just ninth in both categories.
Only three other teams have odds shorter than +1800: Alabama (+700), Miami (+800) and Georgia (+900).
The Crimson Tide has 6.2% of tickets (sixth) and 6.5% of the handle (fifth); Miami has 5.2% of tickets (eighth) and 6.3% of the handle (sixth); Georgia has 5% of tickets (10th) and 3.4% of the handle (11th).
Headed in the wrong direction
Penn State and Texas bettors still represent heavy interests for public bettors. Penn State is the third-largest liability at BetMGM and has the second-highest share of tickets (9.4%) and of the handle (12.6%), while Texas has the highest share of the handle (12.8%).
LSU is third in tickets (8.8%) and fourth in handle (9.9%), yet they’re only +2500. Clemson is also high in both categories but is just +15000 following a 2-3 start to the season.
Last year’s national runner-up, Notre Dame (+2500), is seventh in tickets (5.5%) and handle (5.4%). They’re below Ole Miss (+1800) and Oklahoma (+1800), although neither of those two has more than 2% of tickets or of the handle.
Like Clemson, Florida State is down to +15000 after they dropped back-to-back games to Virginia and Miami. They had gained significant ground following a 3-0 start and a win over Alabama in Week 1, but they’re now below the +10000 they were at when odds were published.
The only teams with more than two percent of tickets that haven’t been mentioned are Michigan and Tennessee.
UM opened at +4000, was +4000 last week, and is still +4000. They have 3.5% of tickets and 2.7% of the handle behind them.
Tennessee went from +2000 at opening to +5000 last week to +3500 currently. They have 2.3% of tickets but only 1.3% of the money.
Sleeping giants?
Three teams ranked in the top 10 of the newest AP poll—No. 5 Texas A&M, No. 7 Indiana, and No. 9 Texas Tech—are all being largely overlooked by public bettors.
Texas A&M is +2000 to win the title and has 1.4% of tickets and 1.6% of the handle. Indiana is +3000 with 1.8% of tickets and 1.5% of the handle. Texas Tech is +2500 with 1.3% of tickets and 1.5% of the handle.
Texas and Penn State, the two teams with the most money backing them to win the National Championship, were both left unranked in the latest AP Top 25 poll.
Ohio State leads all teams in National Championship odds and popularity by tickets, while Oregon has shortened to +500 to win the national title at BetMGM sportsbook.
