A massive Sunday for NFL favorites means public bettors cleaned up in Week 7.
Key Takeaways
- Favorites have a run similar to Week 1.
- Eagles, Patriots, and Browns were big winners for bettors.
- Monday night splits are looking similar to Sunday’s.
Favored teams won 11 of the 12 games outright and covered nine spreads on a day where five games had a line of 5.5 or higher. That typically leads to a lot of bettors loading up on good teams vs. bad teams, and they were heavily rewarded this week.
“With the worst five teams in the league (Raiders, Dolphins, Titans, Jets and Saints) losing a combined 132-39, the morning started perfectly for customers with every favorite winning and covering the spread,” said Joey Feazel, the head of football at Caesars Sportsbook. “Opposing the bad teams in recent years has proven to be a tried and trusted formula, and the perfect storm of all five playing the (early Sunday) slate was beneficial to the customers. In the afternoon, when we thought we had a chance, the Giants and Cardinals losing their games benefited the bettors as well.”
It was the best Sunday for bettors since Week 1, when favorites went 11-2 on the moneyline that day.
Perfect storm
According to Feazel, the Colts covering as a slight underdog against the Chargers was the sportsbook’s only notable win of the day.
“Just a tremendous day for NFL sports bettors,” Feazel said.
At BetMGM, four of the five most-bet games by tickets went the way of the public, with the Patriots, Eagles, Browns, and Bears all easily covering. The Lions are the second-most bet team, but they play on Monday night.
As for teams with the highest handle, the Eagles, Patriots, and Browns hurt BetMGM, while the Chargers’ loss was their only big win as well. Teams with at least 60% of the handle went 4-2 ATS.
Big cashes
The game of the day heading into Week 7 was Eagles-Vikings. Philadelphia fought off a late Minnesota rally to win 28-22 as a 2-point favorite at BetMGM. More than 60% of the bets and 79% of the handle backed the Eagles.
The Browns were getting over 70% of both categories as a 2.5-point favorite, and Cleveland easily routed the struggling Dolphins 31-6. Caesars paid out a $275,000 wager on the Browns.
The Patriots (-7) rolled past a bad Titans team 31-13 with 77% of the tickets at BetMGM. A Caesars bettor easily connected on a $260K bet on the Chiefs, which shut out the Raiders, 31-0. The Cowboys doubled up Washington 44-22 with 78% of the handle at BetMGM, and Caesars got hit with a massive $330K bet on Dallas -1.5.
In the wildest game of the day, the Broncos rallied from a 19-0 deficit and scored 33 fourth-quarter points to beat the Giants by a point. While Denver failed to cover a 7.5-point spread, New York actually led in ticket percentage at BetMGM, where the Giants were also a very popular moneyline underdog pick.
MNF insights
The latest NFL odds are available ahead of the Monday doubleheaders, which continue in Week 7 with a huge game and potentially a future NFC playoff showdown between the 5-1 Bucs (+6) and the 4-2 Lions, followed by the Seahawks (-3) hosting the Texans in the late game.
The public is hoping that their good fortune with favorites continues on Monday night. BetMGM reported that 81% of the money and 62% of the bets are on Detroit. DratKings, however, has seen 67% of the handle come in on Tampa Bay, while 57% of the tickets are backing the Lions.
The Seahawks are dominating both categories. BetMGM has seen 73% of the bets and 69% of the money on Seattle, while DraftKings reported 72% of the tickets and 84% of the handle are backing the home favorite.
Bettors are also locked in on over 52.5 on Bucs-Lions, with 93% backing that side of the total. Texans-Seahawks has a very low 41, and bettors are split at BetMGM.
