The house doesn’t always win. It certainly didn't when ESPN Bet users cashed in on 28 of the 30 most popular bets during the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.
The first SNF event of the 2025 NFL season saw near unanimous success for prop bettors, with a variety of hits for Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Derrick Henry.
Key Takeaways
- Bettors found lots of success in anytime touchdown scorer markets.
- The Bills were as high as +2,000 on the live moneyline at ESPN Bet on Sunday.
- Super Bowl and awards futures markets are already changing.
In a week dominated by defense, the Ravens and Bills combined to score 81 points. The Bills were as high as +2,000 live underdogs before they squeaked out a 41-40 win.
The offensive explosion was a positive for the betting public, who hit 93.3% of the 30 most-bet player props based on total tickets. The only two player props that did not cash were Derrick Henry first touchdown scorer and Mark Andrews anytime TD scorer.
Among the many successful bets were:
- Allen, Henry, Jackson, and Zay Flowers anytime touchdown scorer
- Jackson and Allen 200+ passing yards
- Khalil Shakir 30+ receiving yards
- And more
Buffalo’s home-field win moved it from Super Bowl co-favorite with the Ravens (+650 each) to standalone favorite at +550.
Despite that, the Ravens received 19.1% of bets and 27.7% of the handle to win the Super Bowl at ESPN Bet since Sunday. That’s ahead of all other teams, including the Green Bay Packers, (12.8% of bets, 15.3% handle) and Bills (12.4% of bets, 10.4% handle).
Allen is also the new MVP favorite at +375 (entered Sunday at +600), moving ahead of Jackson, who dropped from +405 to +500.
Allen received 8.1% of bets and 24.4% of the handle to win the MVP since Sunday’s encounter. Henry received 5.2% of bets and 11.5% of the handle.
Shaping the markets
Week 1 was kind to NFL prop bettors around the league. According to BetMGM’s John Ewing, “Customers found success with the anytime touchdown market. A number of popular players found the end zone in Week 1, including Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Travis Kelce, Chase Brown, Ashton Jeanty, Bijan Robinson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Derrick Henry.”
Aaron Rodgers also paid his backers in spades. He cashed +2,000 odds to throw 4+ passing touchdowns, while both the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets easily exceeded their team totals (20.5 and 17.5) in a 34-32 Steelers win. The game finished with the second-most total points Sunday despite closing with the lowest total and having the highest share of tickets and handle to go under the projected total.
It’s only been one week, but individual futures markets are already shifting. Henry moved from +1,400 to +700 for Offensive Player of the Year, overtaking Barkley, Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jahmyr Gibbs, although Robinson received 20.8% of the handle since the weekend.
Micah Parsons (+500) remained the Defensive Player of the Year favorite exiting the weekend after he recorded a sack in his Packers debut. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt received the highest share of tickets (22.2%) and handle (63.3%) of DPOY bets since Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver Emeka Egbuka went from +1,600 to +800 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year after he caught four passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut. Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren moved from +2,500 to +900 after he caught seven passes for 76 yards.
The pair are now just behind Ashton Jeanty (+250) and Cam Ward (+550).
