The Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, has suddenly become one of the most volatile betting markets at major sportsbooks.
Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett is now the betting favorite to claim the award at most sportsbooks over reigning winner Connor McDavid and veteran Brad Marchand.
Key Takeaways
- Connor McDavid is trying to become the fourth player to win two straight Conn Smythe trophies.
- Brad Marchand could become the second-oldest Conn Smythe winner ever.
- Sportsbooks have reported heavy movement between at least five candidates.
The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers began the Stanley Cup Final at near-coin flip odds.
Entering Game 1, McDavid was a -110 favorite to win the Conn Smythe at ESPN BET. Bennett and Marchand owned +2,500 and +6,000 Conn Smythe Trophy odds, respectively.
Bennett's odds were as long as +15,000 at BetMGM prior to the start of the Final.
Following McDavid’s two-assist performance, his odds shortened to -175 at ESPN BET following Game 1. Bennett, who scored two goals in the loss, shrunk to +1,200, and Marchand's odds moved to +10,000.
The trio also dominated the scoresheet in Game 2, with six points registered between them.
Prior to Game 3, the Conn Smythe betting market shifted dramatically.
“As far as Conn Smythe betting goes, (Oilers star Leon) Draisaitl, Marchand, Bennett, and (Oilers goalie Stuart) Skinner are bad results, while McDavid is now the best result for us," BetMGM senior sportsbook trader Matthew Rasp. "BetMGM is fine with anyone else winning the award.”
BetMGM did not get its wish in Game 3. In a game Florida won 6-1, Bennett and Marchand both came up with a goal while McDavid was blanked.
Odds coming out of Game 3 have Bennett as a +125 (44% implied probability) favorite to win the Conn Smythe at BetMGM. McDavid is second on the oddsboard at +240 (29%), and Marchand is third at +500 (16%).
Odds still on the move
At DraftKings, 25% of the money and 14% of bets are on McDavid to win the Conn Smythe. Marchand is getting 9% of the money and 13% of the bets, and 8% of the money and 7% of bets are on Bennett. Leon Draisaitl, the league’s leading goal-scorer who was listed at +1,200, also has 8% of both the money and tickets.
BetMGM reported on Monday that 14.1% of the tickets are on McDavid, but 31.4% percent of the money is on Draisaitl.
Marchand is the hot name on the board at ESPN BET, having received 37.9% of bets and 28.3% of the handle since the start of Game 3. Bennett is also in heavy contention with 27.3% of bets and 47.7% of money.
"Bennett has now moved ahead of McDavid in Conn Smythe odds after Game 3 – the first time since May 23 that McDavid is not the favorite for the award," said an ESPN BET spokesperson.
The market is still incredibly unstable. Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was +550 at FanDuel on Tuesday, fell to +450 on Tuesday night, and is back to +800 on Wednesday morning.
Some big movement in the Conn Smythe odds between Game 3 and 4
— Josh Inglis (@Covers_josh) June 11, 2025
Marchand was +450 and Bob +550 yesterday morning. They then flipped with Bob moving to +450 last night. Now Bennett has gotten shorter while Bob and Brad move to +700 and longer.... pic.twitter.com/d9Yvwrowws
Marchand also went from +450 on Tuesday morning to +550 in the evening and +700 on Wednesday morning at FanDuel.
The record books await
History is on the line for all three of the top contenders for the Conn Smythe.
McDavid could become just the fourth player in NHL history to win the trophy in back-to-back seasons, joining Bernie Parent (1974-75), Mario Lemieux (1991-92), and Sidney Crosby (2016-17). He won last year’s trophy despite the Oilers losing in seven games to their current opponent, the Panthers.
McDavid was the first player since 2003 to win the Conn Smythe in a losing effort. He could also become the first two-time losing winner and the first back-to-back losing winner.
Marchand, 37, would become the second-oldest Conn Smythe winner in league history, less than one month behind Tim Thomas when he did it in 2011. Fittingly, Marchand and Thomas were teammates on the 2011 Boston Bruins team that won the Stanley Cup.
Bennett already set an all-time NHL record for road goals (12) in one postseason. That’s despite him never making an All-Star team during his 11 years in the NHL.
