Once a massive underdog, winger Mitch Marner is dominating Conn Smythe Trophy odds as his Vegas Golden Knights enjoy a 3-0 series lead in the Western Conference Final.
Key Takeaways
- Marner leads the entire playoffs in points scored.
- Despite being up 3-0 in the conference finals, the Golden Knights aren’t favored to win the Stanley Cup
- Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki was the favorite on prediction markets Monday morning.
Marner was a +6,600 candidate to win the Conn Smythe Trophy when the NHL Playoffs began.
The Colorado Avalanche, who now find themselves on the brink of getting swept, rostered the previous favorite in Nathan MacKinnon.
BetMGM insights shared with Covers showed that MacKinnon was a +250 leader in the award market near the end of the conference semifinals. He surged to +170 when the Avs booked their ticket to the next round, leaving Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen as the next-closest candidate (+400).
MacKinnon was also the overwhelming pick for public bettors, boasting 22% of tickets and 27.5% of all money wagered in the market. The second-highest amounts in the respective categories were 5.7% and 17.6%.
Marner, 29, has managed to completely flip the odds. After spending nine years with the Toronto Maple Leafs, the first-year Golden Knights star leads the entire playoffs in points with seven goals and 14 assists, including a trio of helpers in three games against the Avalanche.
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Prediction markets largely agree
Prediction market sites, such as Polymarket, have emerged as viable rivals to sportsbooks thanks to their sports event contracts. Users buy and sell yes/no outcomes associated with various events in sports and win or lose money depending on the accuracy of their prediction.
Marner, whose +175 odds at BetMGM carry a 36.4% implied probability, barely leads in likelihood to win the Conn Smythe at Polymarket.
While his 35% probability nearly mirrors BetMGM’s odds, he finds himself entangled with Avalanche center Martin Necas (34%) and Hurricanes center Seth Jarvis (30%).
Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki was favored as of Monday morning, although his probability wasn’t visible as of noon ET.
Polymarket’s top rival in the prediction space, Kalshi, has Marner as a dominant 50% favorite. Andersen is second at 23%, while Golden Knights center Jack Eichel is the only other player with a double-digit probability (11%) at the time of writing. Suzuki is listed at 8% after spiking as high as 67%.
Stanley Cup odds
The Avalanche were the team to beat heading into the conference finals. Not only were their +135 Stanley Cup odds the shortest of the four remaining teams, but they had leading marks with 17.7% of tickets and 23.7% of the pot. The Golden Knights were +575 with 7.3% of wagers and 11% of the handle.
The Knights still aren’t in the lead in odds to win the Stanley Cup, as their +145 value just trails the Hurricanes at +140. The Canadiens are at +425, and the Avs are down at +1,400.
Barstool founder Dave Portnoy is one of many fans who are hoping the Golden Knights defy the odds and win the championship. The well-known celebrity wagered $100,000 at +650 odds, meaning he stands to win $750,000 if Vegas cashes his ticket.
