Even in the big 2025, certain situations can still be too good to be true. Just ask one Kalshi bettor who lost nearly $10,000 when the New York Knicks improbably collapsed against the Indiana Pacers.
A Kalshi user risked $9,626 to win $77 when the Knicks had a 99% chance to win Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
LMAOOOO someone put $9.6k on the Knicks when they had a 99% chance to win to make $77
— Hater Report (@HaterReport_) May 22, 2025
RIP BOZO
via @KalshiSports pic.twitter.com/sByRLBGTtu
Key Takeaways
- The Knicks were up by 14 points with less than three minutes remaining.
- Aaron Nesmith is the first player in NBA playoff history to score 20+ points in the final five minutes of a game.
- The Knicks are larger favorites in Game 2 than they were in Game 1.
The Knicks, who have not been to the NBA Finals since 1999, opened Game 1 as a 4.5-point favorite. They appeared to have locked up a win and a cover when they had a 14-point lead with 2:51 remaining.
That was until an ending that was so unexpected that even Hollywood would scoff at it.
The Pacers went on a 20-6 run powered by four straight threes from Aaron Nesmith before Tyrese Haliburton drilled a time-expiring overtime-forcing shot from just a whisker inside the 3-point line. The dramatic shot bounced off the back rim, soared 7.23 feet straight up into the air, and ripped through the net to send the game to an extra period.
HALI DOES IT AGAIN 😱😱😱
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) May 22, 2025
INDY FORCES OT IN THE GARDEN! pic.twitter.com/WKFxuuaPYV
The young star paid homage to Pacers legend Reggie Miller, who was on the call courtside, by giving the choking symbol to the Knicks crowd, before leading his team to a 138-135 win five minutes later.
As if the loss wasn’t embarrassing enough, the Kalshi user turned a new family-sized barbecue platter into a lost Rolex watch. That’s a tough day at the office.
Destroying all logic
To say that wins such as the Pacers’ Game 1 victory don’t happen every day would be putting it mildly.
No player in NBA playoff history had scored 20 or more points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime until Nesmith, a throw-in piece in a 2022 trade for Malcolm Brogdon, did.
Unreal shot-making from @aaronnesmith24 to help the @Pacers take a 1-0 series lead 🔥 pic.twitter.com/FsOz6MZkHJ
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) May 22, 2025
NBA teams over the last 27 years were 0-970 when trailing by at least 14 points with less than 2:50 remaining in regulation. Indy changed that to 1-970.
Since 1997-98, teams are now 4-1,640 when trailing by at least seven points in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game. The Pacers have three of those four victories in this playoff run – Game 1 against the Pacers, Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and Game 5 of the first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks.
On top of all that, Haliburton is now an unprecedented 12-14 (85.7%) on shots to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes of regulation or overtime. That’s far and away the best in the league and would be the best mark all-time.
Knicks still favored to win Game 2
Despite the seismic loss, the Knicks are now 5.5-6.5-point favorites in Pacers vs. Knicks predictions in Game 2 depending on the sportsbook.
FanDuel’s betting splits show that 59% of bets and 51% of money is on the Pacers’ spread.
Forty-five percent of bets and 70% of money is on the Knicks’ spread at DraftKings. Circa Sportsbook, known for having sharp customers, has 75% of bets and 91% of money on the Pacers, both sportsbooks according to VSiN’s betting splits.
