Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour remains confident in the company's legal position as a U.S. Supreme Court showdown potentially approaches.
- States are challenging Kalshi's sports event contracts, arguing they violate state gambling laws.
- Conflicting higher court decisions point to a possible U.S. Supreme Court hearing.
- Sports event contracts now account for about 65% of Kalshi's revenue, down from 95% nine months ago.
Speaking on Reuters' Econ World podcast, Mansour discussed the legal challenges facing Kalshi and the prospect of the Supreme Court weighing in on sports event contracts.
“I think the process will play out the way it’s going to play out,” Mansour said.
Prediction market operators are embroiled with dozens of states and tribal entities over the legality of their products.
For Kalshi, its legal entanglements started soon after it launched its sports event contracts in January 2025. Sports event contracts are similar to traditional sports betting products, which are governed by state and tribal regulators. Kalshi argues that its prediction markets fall under federal commodities regulation and should not adhere to state or tribal laws.
Legal history
In March 2025, Nevada became the first of many states to issue Kalshi a cease-and-desist order, claiming the prediction market operator was violating state gambling laws. Other states soon followed suit, resulting in a number of court cases.
So far, cases involving prediction markets have made their way up to higher federal courts. The Tenth Circuit, Ninth Circuit, and Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals have ruled in favor of states and state regulators. Meanwhile, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Kalshi and against the state of New Jersey. The Garden State has since petitioned the Supreme Court to review the ruling.
The conflicting court rulings and New Jersey's petition have increased the possibility of Supreme Court review. Mansour is optimistic about Kalshi’s chances should that come to fruition.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account“Frankly, the statute and the structure is very, very clear and, you know, whether people think a sports game is a game, this commodities exchange act gave the CFTC the authority to decide what to do with the game, and to regulate it the way it sees fit, and that’s what it’s doing.”
Sports at legal epicenter
Mansour went into great depth on the role of prediction markets in sports, which are at the heart of most of the lawsuits involving Kalshi. And sports event contracts are critical to Kalshi’s business, although a little less so, lately. Sports contracts accounted for roughly 95% of Kalshi's revenue nine months ago, but Mansour said that share has fallen to about 65%.
Mansour pointed to an estimated $70 billion in private equity investment in U.S. sports as evidence of the industry's economic importance. He said, “those investments are very tied to win loss.” Mansour also cited an estimate of at least $200 million in economic benefits for New York City from the Knicks winning the NBA championship.
Despite his confidence, Mansour declined to estimate Kalshi's chances of winning if the Supreme Court hears the case.
“I’m not going to comment on that, but again, we are very confident in our legal position.”
