The NFL is hell-bent on protecting “The Shield” at all times and isn’t about to let the current legal and regulatory uncertainty surrounding prediction markets put the league’s brand in harm’s way.
But if that legal and regulatory uncertainty were to clear up - well, that may be a different story, then.
- Roger Goodell suggested the league will avoid prediction market partnerships until current legal and regulatory uncertainties are resolved.
- The NFL commissioner emphasized protecting the league's brand and game integrity, contrasting the league’s caution with the NHL’s willingness to partner with prediction market operators.
- Industry executives noted prediction markets function like European betting exchanges but remain small compared to sportsbooks, making them complementary rather than competitive.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell appeared on Wednesday at an investor event held by Genius Sports Ltd., a sports betting data technology company that is both a partner to and an investment of the league.
When asked about prediction markets, Goodell suggested his league is taking a wait-and-see approach before it does any business with the federally regulated exchanges.
“That's not something we're about to enter into,” Goodell said.
Instead, the NFL is going to “see how things play out,” the commissioner explained, noting there are currently “a lot of legal challenges going on” involving prediction markets.
Those challenges mostly center around the legality of sports event contracts, which prediction markets have begun offering over the past year, allowing the exchanges to facilitate de facto sports wagering in all 50 states.
“We'd like to be first in the market in a lot of things, but in a lot of things, we're willing to say, ‘We're going to let things play out, we're going to decide is this something we want to do,'” Goodell said. “The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously, and we won't risk that brand in something until we feel confident that we can do it and if we see it play out in a way that works for us.”
That goes for things like private-equity ownership of NFL teams, and it goes for sports betting and prediction markets as well, Goodell said.
If a friend partnered with a prediction market, would you, too?
The commissioner's comments suggest there is still a way to go before we see an “official” prediction market partner of the league. They also suggest some differences of opinion among professional sports leagues in their willingness to embrace prediction markets.
Kalshi and Polymarket, two prediction market operators, are already partners of the NHL. The commissioner of the NHL, Gary Bettman, said the arrangements give his league more control and an option to “take down any (sports event) contracts" it deems inappropriate.
Ensuring the integrity of games is a big thing for the NFL as well, particularly given recent sports betting-related scandals and the rise of nationwide sports betting via prediction markets. (The NFL has even applied its employee rules for sports betting to prediction markets.)
“(Integrity), obviously, is incredibly important to us, particularly when it comes to sports betting,” Goodell reiterated on Wednesday.
“That's the backbone of our success, is making sure that whatever you see play out on the field is not being influenced by any outside influences,” the commissioner added.
-"In any scenario, Genius wins" pic.twitter.com/29Q87iKffQ
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Partners, such as Genius, help the NFL with this, Goodell said. And Genius sees ongoing opportunities for itself in providing assistance to both state-regulated sportsbooks and federally regulated prediction markets.
Prediction market platforms, professional market makers, and sportsbooks looking to hedge risk using prediction markets are all current or potential customers for the data that Genius is selling.
“Genius is extremely well-placed to win in every single outcome,” CEO Mark Locke said during a panel with Goodell.
However, Genius, the headquarters of which are in London, also has the benefit of a European perspective on betting exchanges.
Those exchanges have been up and running alongside sportsbooks for years, including the Betfair Exchange, which is owned and operated by FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment.
“When it comes to sports, we believe there's practically no difference between Betfair and the U.S. prediction suppliers,” Genius chief commercial officer Jack Davison said during Wednesday's investor event. “The only meaningful difference is regulatory wrapper and naming. Europe calls it an exchange. The U.S. calls it a prediction market. But functionally, structurally, and economically, it's the same thing, and that matters, because the economics of exchanges have clearly understood limits.”
This is why, in the U.K., Flutter chooses to “heavily promote” sportsbooks like Paddy Power but not the Betfair Exchange, Davison added. Where there are both legal prediction markets and sportsbooks, the exchanges manage “low, single-digit market share,” he added.
“They have a place, but they’re small,” Davison said. “The economics simply can’t compete.”
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The lifetime value of an exchange customer is around 15% of a sportsbook customer, Davison explained. And while exchanges charge “low, single-digit commissions” to customers, sportsbooks are reaping double-digit margins from their product.
“So the commercial implication is clear: Sportsbooks will always outspend prediction platforms in acquisition, because their users are worth multiples more,” Davison said.
“Sportsbooks serve sports fans,” he added later. “People who want to casually enjoy the game and place a bet. They are not hyper-price-sensitive market makers.”
So, in short, Genius doesn’t see prediction markets replacing sportsbooks in the U.S., or even really acting as true competitors.
“They're a different product for a different customer,” Davison said. “And for Genius, that's good news. Prediction markets are additive. The market just got bigger.”
