LAS VEGAS - The launch of a federally regulated, FanDuel-branded prediction market could be close, according to comments from stock analysts and a key executive.
- FanDuel is preparing to launch a federally regulated prediction market app in partnership with CME Group, potentially by the end of 2025.
- The app will initially focus on financial and economic event predictions rather than sports, avoiding potential regulatory conflicts with state gambling authorities.
- While the technology could support sports event contracts, FanDuel seems likely to steer clear of them in the U.S. for now due to legal concerns.
Flutter Entertainment CEO Peter Jackson suggested during his keynote remarks Tuesday at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas that a U.S. prediction market is something that will be made "available for consumers soon.”
Analysts at Jefferies, an investment bank, met with Jackson at G2E. And, according to a note from those analysts Tuesday, the FanDuel owner “can thrive under all potential avenues for prediction market development; will likely enter prediction markets in specific states in (approximately the fourth quarter of 2025); sees no impact from prediction markets in regulated (online sports betting) states.”
In other words, a federally regulated FanDuel prediction market could be live in all 50 U.S. states as early as this month (the ongoing shutdown of the U.S. federal government may not help the timeline). That would give the biggest state-regulated operator of online sports betting in the U.S. another business line, albeit one that might not touch on sports, at least not at first.
The buddy system
The pieces are coming together. FanDuel and derivatives giant CME Group announced a partnership in August to “develop new fully funded, event-based contracts,” with no mention of sports or sports betting in their initial press release.
"Customers will be able to express their views multiple times a day on a wide range of markets with simple 'yes' or 'no' positions for as little as $1," a press release said. “Expected to launch later this year, the products will include benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, prices of oil and gas, gold, cryptocurrencies, and key economic indicators such as GDP and CPI, with further details of additional offerings to be determined in the coming months."
The news was followed a month later by CME CEO Terry Duffy saying on Bloomberg’s "Odd Lots" podcast that there will be a “FanDuel markets app powered” by his company. He also suggested the app will have sports event contract capabilities.
“And if in fact FanDuel wants to put sports up there, as you know, those are weekend events as well,” Duffy added.
Flutter is already in a sports prediction market-like business, given the operation of its Betfair Exchange outside the U.S. The online gambling giant just hasn’t jumped into the more controversial world of sports-related prediction markets in the U.S.
That is because, while FanDuel may have the option of adding sports event contracts to the offerings on the new app, it may not want to do so at the moment given state gambling regulators' warnings against that sort of thing.
Peter Jackson, CEO of FanDuel-owner Flutter, says Kalshi's "combos" look "suspiciously like sports betting" to him.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) October 7, 2025
The warnings come as those state gambling regulators are scrapping with Kalshi and other prediction market operators in court over the legality of sports event contracts, which the state watchdogs see as sports wagering by another name. It could take years before a definitive court ruling is reached.
Lawsuit up
In the meantime, sports event contracts make it possible for prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer users the option to bet “yes” or “no” on sports outcomes in all 50 states, not just the ones with legalized sports betting. This makes Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood competitors to state-regulated online sportsbooks and perhaps even other forms of state-regulated gambling.
How competitive prediction markets can be in a state with legalized online sports betting remains to be seen. Some in the industry, Jackson included, have doubts.
"Prediction market headlines will force a legal path to either prediction market legalization, further (online sports betting) legalization, or both," the Jefferies analysts predicted in their note. "OSB will prevail when offered beside prediction markets, in our view."
Prediction Markets are facing 18 legal challenges across more than a half-dozen states, per attorney Kevin King at today's G2E conference
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) October 8, 2025
For the moment, though, the idea of a state-regulated operator like FanDuel suddenly offering federally regulated sports event contracts may not fly. Nevertheless, FanDuel and Flutter have put themselves in a position to go there if they can and want. CME also gets something - a way to tap into FanDuel's younger customer base.
“For CME, they do want to get closer to the retail consumers, and we've got a terrific brand and lots of customers in the markets,” Jackson said at G2E. “It's a very exciting opportunity for us both.”
Prediction markets were a seemingly inescapable topic of discussion at this year's G2E, one of the major get-togethers for the gambling industry. People were discussing the upstart exchanges and their legally controversial sports event contracts in the halls and during discussion panels at the Venetian.
That is because federally regulated markets are operating outside the traditional, state-regulated model for legalized gambling in the U.S. And while FanDuel is doing brisk business in that state-regulated status quo, it is preparing to dabble in the prediction business as well.
What Jackson didn’t say during his G2E panel was that FanDuel was about to start offering sports event contracts anytime soon, mentioning instead trading of “financial,” “leisure,” and “entertainment,” products.
“Indeed, other things which might be closer to home for us,” he said. “We see that being very strong possibilities to bring our capabilities here to the U.S. market. And that's something which we’ll make available for consumers soon.”
