To quote Armin Tamzarian: The times they are a-becoming quite different.
- New federally regulated prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket now allow legal NFL wagering nationwide, bypassing the state-regulated sportsbooks the league traditionally worked with.
- The NFL has raised concerns that these markets lack critical safeguards like information sharing and restrictions on "objectionable" bets, which could threaten game integrity.
- Despite efforts to block or limit these betting platforms, the NFL currently lacks the regulatory influence it holds over state sportsbooks, leaving it with fewer tools to control how and where bets are placed.
The National Football League didn't want more legalized sports betting. It happened. The league then learned to live with, and control, all that additional wagering.
Something else the NFL didn't want were "sports wagering contracts," and they happened anyway, too, via federally regulated "prediction markets."
But what hasn't happened yet with these prediction markets, according to the NFL, is the creation and cultivation of the same kind of regulatory systems and relationships that the league enjoys with state-regulated sportsbook operators.
Now another NFL regular season is here, and bettors across the U.S. are about to wager billions on the league's regular-season games. This will include bets made in a way that didn't exist last year and that the league currently views with skepticism.
The legality of that way, prediction markets, is still being fought over in the courts. For now, though, it's legal and happening, so: Is this going to be a problem for the NFL? And, if so, what is the league going to do?
"We're concerned that if these markets aren't properly regulated, they could be susceptible to manipulation or price distortion," said David Highhill, the league's vice president of sports betting, during a call with media last week. "So however this comes to be through the legal channels, I think it's really important that we take advantage of the robust framework that we've put in place via the legalized sports betting process, and all leagues have the same types of protections in place."
Yet the "robust framework" the NFL helped put in place is a product of state-regulated sports betting. Prediction markets are not.
Now live on Underdog, team picks! pic.twitter.com/2i4gqwGkfK
— Underdog (@Underdog) September 4, 2025
Sports event contract-offering entities like Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). And it’s these companies, offering federally licensed prediction markets, that are facilitating a form of currently legal wagering on the NFL that didn’t exist at the start of last year’s regular season.
This wagering is done using “event contracts,” wherein someone can bet “yes” or “no” on something happening, like a politician winning an election.
However, as of late last year (right around when the NFL regular season was winding down), there are sports event contracts, wherein someone can bet “yes” or “no” on a team to win a game, like the Super Bowl. These contracts are now there for bettors to use at the start of the NFL season.
At Kalshi, for example, more than $4 million in trading volume had been reported as of Thursday morning for the Dallas-Philadelphia TNF matchup. Contracts for the Eagles to win were priced at around 80 cents apiece.
The 'No Futures Contracts Tied to Sports' League
The NFL has been worried about this sort of thing for at least a year, as it warned the CFTC last August that "sports wagering contracts" could affect the integrity of and consumer confidence in its games.
According to the league, the "robust regulatory regimes" for sports betting were partly attributable to the NFL’s "ongoing efforts to ensure legalized sports betting is properly regulated to protect the interests of participants and fans."
"The NFL is concerned that if sports related gaming contracts were to be permitted, such contracts may not be used in a legitimate effort to mitigate commercial risk," a league official wrote to the CFTC in August 2024. "These contracts would mimic sports betting but seemingly without the robust regulatory features that accompany regulated and legalized sports betting and which help to mitigate threats to the integrity of our contests."
Much has changed since then. The NFL's letter was regarding proposed rule changes the CFTC was considering, and most of the buzz then was around election-related event contracts.
But now there is a new president and a new attitude and approach at the CFTC, which is hands-off when it comes to what prediction markets can offer. The regulator is not rushing to stop anyone from offering election or sports-related event contracts, and the wagering with those contracts continues.
NFL players can't use prediction markets to bet on the NFL, just as they can't use sportsbooks to bet the NFL.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) August 26, 2025
However, NFL players COULD use prediction markets for other sports, just as they can use sportsbooks for other sports:https://t.co/jlEvBbxzAA @Covers
What hasn’t changed (not yet, anyway) is the NFL’s thinking about prediction markets.
"I think for us, the key distinction is that, for now, prediction markets lack certain regulatory requirements that we know regulated sportsbooks are subject to, like information sharing, responsible betting tools, [and] the objectionable bet prohibitions," Highhill, the league’s vice president of sports betting, said last week.
“Information sharing” is important, because that could include the reporting of suspicious wagering activity. If someone in the NFL is betting on the NFL, the NFL wants to know. But, if they are betting on the NFL using a prediction market, will the NFL know?
The league arguably wants to know, as its rules for prediction markets mirror the ones for sports betting.
There have been steps taken to try to ease the concerns of leagues like the NFL, namely Kalshi's partnership with a betting-integrity firm, IC360.
"We are committed to working with the NFL and all leagues to address their concerns, share data, and be as transparent as we are legally allowed to be," a Kalshi spokesperson told ESPN last week.
Yet the NFL's comments to media about prediction markets suggest the league feels it isn't in the same place with that wagering as they are with state-regulated sportsbooks.
What’s more, the CFTC’s own commissioners have questioned whether they can police the prediction markets they’re tasked with policing.
“As of today, we have too few guardrails and too little visibility into the prediction market landscape,” said Kristin Johnson, in a speech on Wednesday, her last day as a CFTC commissioner.
Unsportsmanlike conduct
Highhill’s mention of “objectionable” betting was important as well, because the NFL has been quietly working with the online gambling industry to limit what sports bettors can bet on the league. If you’ve ever wondered why you can’t wager on whether an NFL kicker will miss their next field goal or how many flags a referee will throw during a game, you may have the league itself to thank.
During that recent call with media to discuss sports betting-related issues, the NFL explained how the league works with sportsbook operators, regulators, and state legislators to ensure the integrity of games are protected.
Highhill also said the NFL has been focused on “proactively prohibiting” certain betting markets that they think are more susceptible to manipulation and that offer only “de minimis fan engagement.”
This means dissuading sportsbook partners or regulators from allowing bettors to wager on things like player injuries, penalty flags, and player props that are "100% controllable" by a single player on a single play.
Now, you cannot bet on someone missing a field goal on Kalshi. But player props and parlays are coming.
BREAKING: Legal sports betting on the world's largest prediction market is coming to all 50 states. https://t.co/fpOasxlEKM
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) September 3, 2025
Kalshi filed paperwork on Tuesday to offer a contract that is vaguely described as “Will <outcomes> occur in <events>?”
Those outcomes could include “game outcomes, player statistics, team statistics, championships, awards, season statistics, playoff outcomes, draft outcomes, and milestones.”
“Outcomes may resolve at different times,” the filing adds. “(e.g., Week 1 game + Super Bowl winner).”
So, in other words, a parlay.
Thus far, Kalshi and everyone else appears content to stick to what you would typically see at an online sportsbook. Nothing too objectionable, in other words.
Will everyone behave this way? Polymarket is standing by to take bets on the first NFL coach fired this year, something that is usually the domain of offshore sportsbooks. And while Polymarket remains offshore itself, it is coming back onshore to legally serve U.S. customers.
The buck stops ... there
Let’s pretend for a moment that the NFL suddenly needs the CFTC to do something about prediction markets. If it does, the league will be asking for help from a regulatory body whose commissioners are appointed by the president (albeit with the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate).
Who is the president right now? Why, it’s Donald Trump! And Trump has an ... interesting history with the NFL. To top it all off, Donald Trump Jr. is now advising two rival prediction markets. It's a pro-prediction administration.
Look, there were always ways to bet on the NFL. You could go to Vegas, you could try to find a bookie, you could bet with an offshore sportsbook, and more recently you can bet with a state-regulated sportsbook. Now, you can also bet on the NFL from basically anywhere in the U.S. with prediction markets.
That change is happening in ways the NFL didn't like and that presents it, and other leagues, with new challenges. The NFL is trying to deal with those challenges, such as with a sports betting-like policy for player use of prediction markets.
Maybe we will soon see an “official” prediction market of the NFL, just as there are official sportsbooks. Kalshi is even looking for someone to help it nail down partnerships with leagues. While the NFL may have to wait for some judges to have their say about the legality of sports event contracts first, a prediction market partnership could give the league the kind of influence it has with legal sportsbooks.
But, as another NFL season begins, the league's grip on what is now “legal” sports betting in the U.S. is not as firm as it was before Week 1 of last year. And how could it be? What's legal this season is different from what was legal last season. Oh, and it may not be legal next season.
This is, however, a powerful and controlling institution, one that issues fines for improper sock-wearing. While it learned to live with sports betting, how will the NFL live with prediction markets?
