The frenetic fight to make the MLB postseason in the American League has left oddsmakers in a state of constant chaos.
Key Takeaways
- The Guardians saw their playoff odds jump by 33.1 percentage points over the last week.
- The Twins lost 28.5 percentage points in postseason probability over that same span.
- Oddsmakers view the White Sox as the strongest World Series contenders among the teams in in the AL wild-card picture.
The race for the AL wild card is one of the closest in recent memory. Seven teams are within 5.5 games of earning the third and final spot, which the Guardians hold entering Thursday's slate. The Guardians are also just 2.5 games behind the AL Central-leading White Sox, meaning Cleveland could overtake Chicago for the division lead and push the White Sox into the wild-card places.
Data from baseball analytics platform FanGraphs shows noticeable changes for teams over the week ranging from Aug. 19 up to and including Aug. 26.
| Team | Aug. 26 Probability | Aug. 19 Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 77.6% | 63.5% | +14.1% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 62.5% | 29.4% | +33.1% |
| Houston Astros | 44.4% | 57.5% | -13.1% |
| Seattle Mariners | 41.9% | 32% | +9.9% |
| Texas Rangers | 32.9% | 38% | -5.1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 15.8% | 9% | +6.8% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 13.4% | 22.1% | -8.7% |
| Minnesota Twins | 10.5% | 39% | -28.5% |
| Detroit Tigers | 2.3% | 14.2% | -11.9% |
These percentages are very similar to the implied probabilities of MLB betting odds listed at FanDuel.
As of Thursday morning, these are the odds for teams in wild-card picture to make and miss the postseason
| Team | Make Postseason | Miss postseason |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | -600 | +410 |
| Cleveland Guardians | -168 | +132 |
| Houston Astros | +118 | -148 |
| Seattle Mariners | +138 | -176 |
| Texas Rangers | +198 | -265 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +440 | -670 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +470 | -700 |
| Minnesota Twins | +920 | -2,200 |
| Detroit Tigers | +1,600 | -10,000 |
Who is in the best position?
The regular season ends Sept. 27, leaving teams with exactly one month to make their final postseason pushes.
Although the White Sox are heavy favorites to make the postseason, they still have two series against the Twins and battles with the Astros, Guardians, and Tigers - all of whom are in the hunt for the wild card.
The Guardians get the Blue Jays, Tigers, Orioles, Twins, and White Sox, among others. The remaining strength of schedule for the two top AL wild-card contenders rank 28th- and 26th-hardest, respectively, of 30 teams, according to Tankathon.
The Astros face a tough stretch with upcoming series against the Red Sox, White Sox, and Guardians, while their remaining schedule ranks 13th in difficulty. By contrast, the Mariners have the easiest remaining schedule, which features eight games against the Angels, seven against the Athletics, and three against the Rockies.
The Rangers have the most difficult upcoming schedule among AL wild-card contenders, ranking 10th in the category. The Orioles are 17th; the Blue Jays are 29th; the Twins are 25th; and the Tigers are 21st.
The strength-of-schedule rankings for AL wild-card contenders are as follows:
- White Sox: 28th
- Guardians: 26th
- Astros: 13th
- Mariners: 30th
- Rangers: 10th
- Orioles: 17th
- Blue Jays: 29th
- Twins: 25th
- Tigers: 21st
World Series odds
As the race to make the wild card continues, the Dodgers continue to have a comfortable lead in World Series odds. FanDuel lists the back-to-back champions at +160 (38.5% implied chance), well ahead of the closest challengers, the Brewers (+750) and Yankees (+800).
The Rays (+1,100), Red Sox (+1,300), and Cubs (+1,400) fill out the list of the next challengers. The team in the wild-card picture with the shortest World Series odds is the White Sox, at +2,500.
