Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward might’ve been the first pick in the NFL Draft, but he isn’t the oddsmakers’ first pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Ward, who is +300 to win the award at FanDuel Sportsbook, is stuck behind Las Vegas Raiders running back and sixth overall pick, Ashton Jeanty (+250).
Key Takeaways
- The first overall pick in the draft hasn’t won OROY since 2011.
- Since 2019, all first-selected QBs were favored to win OROY except Bryce Young.
- Ward has consistently overcome hurdles, including being a zero-star high school recruit.
Ward’s omission by the sportsbooks is surprising for several reasons.
First, the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. The last two and four of the previous six Offensive Rookie of the Year winners were quarterbacks, as were the last 12 MVP winners.
Last year’s first-overall pick, Caleb Williams, also opened as the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. According to Sports Illustrated, his odds were as low as +135 at DraftKings Sportsbook around this time one year ago.
The last time the first pick was a quarterback and wasn’t favored to win the award was in 2023, when Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson was installed as the favorite. The award ended up going to Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud, who was third in pre-season betting odds. Robinson finished fifth in the voting.
While the Jacksonville Jaguars took defensive end Travon Walker with the first pick in the 2022 draft, quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray were picked first in the three preceding years. All opened as favorites to win OROY at +200 to +250, though only Murray managed to win the award.
Burrow was in pole position to take home the honor until he suffered a season-ending injury, paving the way for Chargers QB Justin Herbert to claim the award. Lawrence did not receive a vote, and the award went to Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase.
The top contenders for OROY
Ward is no stranger to overcoming adversity. He was a zero-star recruit coming out of high school and made stops in college at Incarnate Word, Washington State, and Miami.
His primary competition, Jeanty, is also familiar with playing the role of the underdog. He turned down prolific NIL offers from Power Conference schools to finish his college career at Boise State, where he ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns as a junior and finished second in the 2024 Heisman Trophy voting.
The player with the third-best OROY odds going into the year is the 22nd pick in the draft, Los Angeles Chargers running back Omarion Hampton (+1,000). He’s ahead of the second pick and the reigning Heisman winner, Travis Hunter (+1,100), who will take snaps on offense and defense.
Also in the mix are Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan (+1,300) and New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough (+1,800).
Green Bay Packers WR Matthew Golden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka, Chicago Bears TE Colston Loveland, and Indianapolis Colts TE Tyler Warren are all tied at +2,500, which translates to a 3.8 percent implied chance to win the award.
A troubling trend
Both of the last two OROY winners – Jayden Daniels and Stroud – were the second pick in the draft.
The first pick in the draft hasn’t won OROY since Cam Newton in 2011. Two of the last 10 winners were picked 10th overall, one (Josh Jacobs) was picked 24th, another (Alvin Kamara) was taken 67th, and the lowest winner, Dak Prescott, was selected 135th overall.
