I like to check out the posts on here when I have time. I’ll contribute when I feel like I have something to contribute. I don’t know if it’s always appreciated. On that note, I am starting my own thread.
In this thread, I will mostly publish thoughts. Feel free to post yours too. If I land on something that I really like then I may post some picks. I do find that writing these things out and discussing them with others can sometimes provide clarity in picks. BOL basketballers.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I like to check out the posts on here when I have time. I’ll contribute when I feel like I have something to contribute. I don’t know if it’s always appreciated. On that note, I am starting my own thread.
In this thread, I will mostly publish thoughts. Feel free to post yours too. If I land on something that I really like then I may post some picks. I do find that writing these things out and discussing them with others can sometimes provide clarity in picks. BOL basketballers.
LA feels like the right side to me. 3rd game in five nights for GSV, which is significant for the W. On the road. 1-1 season series. Sparks haven’t beaten anyone good. 3-6. Those 3 wins against Dallas, Chicago, and this very same Valks team. The biggest factor is probably the emotional letdown for Valks after crushing the Aces (where their current coach used to coach).
What I find most interesting (line-wise) is the total of 163.5 because as I said earlier these teams have already played twice. First game was 162.5 and went to 151. Second game was 160.5 and went to 155. Two straight unders in the season series and we’re getting the highest total yet.
Some players have been in and out. Jackson, Allemand, Salaun, Zandalasini. They should all be available tonight which could explain the line, but I think it also speaks to GSV getting a bit more comfortable, especially on O, and this being their third meeting in 10 games there shouldn’t be too many defensive surprises in a regular season match between two bottom half teams.
Speaking of records, I think Golden State has every right to feel good about a 3-5 franchise start considering not one player on this team averaged 10+ points last year and their most decorated player (Hayes) hasn’t been all that available. Conversely, I think LA and Plum are both disappointed by a 3-6 start. Kelsey didn’t come here to miss the playoffs and rather than looking ahead at LV, my hope is that they will be focused on picking up the easier win tonight against a team they have already beaten but most recently beat them (on the same floor tonight’s game will be played, I might add)
Concerns:
- Sparks have the Aces on deck and travel to LV in two days. Aside from the usual draw of playing the Aces, we also have the Plum angle. It helps that they’ve played once already. It hurts that LA got crushed and Plum didn’t play very well.
- Valks don’t play til Saturday after this game. Will they dig deep on a Monday and can the tired legs keep up for 40 minutes? I think we learn a lot about Natalie’s abilities tonight.
1
LA feels like the right side to me. 3rd game in five nights for GSV, which is significant for the W. On the road. 1-1 season series. Sparks haven’t beaten anyone good. 3-6. Those 3 wins against Dallas, Chicago, and this very same Valks team. The biggest factor is probably the emotional letdown for Valks after crushing the Aces (where their current coach used to coach).
What I find most interesting (line-wise) is the total of 163.5 because as I said earlier these teams have already played twice. First game was 162.5 and went to 151. Second game was 160.5 and went to 155. Two straight unders in the season series and we’re getting the highest total yet.
Some players have been in and out. Jackson, Allemand, Salaun, Zandalasini. They should all be available tonight which could explain the line, but I think it also speaks to GSV getting a bit more comfortable, especially on O, and this being their third meeting in 10 games there shouldn’t be too many defensive surprises in a regular season match between two bottom half teams.
Speaking of records, I think Golden State has every right to feel good about a 3-5 franchise start considering not one player on this team averaged 10+ points last year and their most decorated player (Hayes) hasn’t been all that available. Conversely, I think LA and Plum are both disappointed by a 3-6 start. Kelsey didn’t come here to miss the playoffs and rather than looking ahead at LV, my hope is that they will be focused on picking up the easier win tonight against a team they have already beaten but most recently beat them (on the same floor tonight’s game will be played, I might add)
Concerns:
- Sparks have the Aces on deck and travel to LV in two days. Aside from the usual draw of playing the Aces, we also have the Plum angle. It helps that they’ve played once already. It hurts that LA got crushed and Plum didn’t play very well.
- Valks don’t play til Saturday after this game. Will they dig deep on a Monday and can the tired legs keep up for 40 minutes? I think we learn a lot about Natalie’s abilities tonight.
I like it... That's what Covers forum is supposed to be about. I remember those days when people use to share thoughts, systems, have good dialogue discussions and it benefited everybody.
Money Management and discipline is the key to success in sports investing
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@LippyLeans
I like it... That's what Covers forum is supposed to be about. I remember those days when people use to share thoughts, systems, have good dialogue discussions and it benefited everybody.
I find it very odd that you have 6 total posts and 3 of them are today preaching Valks win outright. Would you like to share your thinking with this pick?
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@Moe_beatches13
I find it very odd that you have 6 total posts and 3 of them are today preaching Valks win outright. Would you like to share your thinking with this pick?
The Val’s are equalized. They don’t get most of the production with one player. They are veteran enough and they put forth a lot of effort. if plum has an off night so go the sparks. Plum had one good outing against the Val’s and I think she has an average or worse night tonight. +7 is a nice amount of points for two teams that are of the same caliber. Val’s outright as they build momentum.
0
@LippyLeans
The Val’s are equalized. They don’t get most of the production with one player. They are veteran enough and they put forth a lot of effort. if plum has an off night so go the sparks. Plum had one good outing against the Val’s and I think she has an average or worse night tonight. +7 is a nice amount of points for two teams that are of the same caliber. Val’s outright as they build momentum.
A lot of general talk here and not a lot about tonight specifically, but I still thank you for your response.
"If Plum has an off night, so go the sparks" ^ Golden State's leading scorer is Kayla Thornton at 13 a game. In addition to Plum, both Azura Stevens (14.6ppg) and Dearica Hamby (17.9ppg) easily clear this. Rickea Jackson is working through some stuff to start the season but averaged 13.4 as a rookie. Golden State has a more balanced attack, but the idea that LA can't win if Plum doesn't score simply isn't true. She had 11 in their most recent win and was only 4/9 from the floor, 1/4 from deep.
I also don't see any reason to think that Plum will struggle tonight:
As PNR Ball Handler, 7.5 points (28%), OPP D rank: 10th Transition, 4.3 points (16%), OPP D rank: 11th Spot Up, 3.1 points (11%), OPP D rank: 10th
Not to mention, 46% of her points scored from the field this season have been above the break 3s. Golden State is dead last in the league defending that space. She's had 3 straight below avg scoring games, especially from deep. Seems like a pretty good get right opportunity to me, playing at home against a very familiar opponent.
1
@Moe_beatches13
A lot of general talk here and not a lot about tonight specifically, but I still thank you for your response.
"If Plum has an off night, so go the sparks" ^ Golden State's leading scorer is Kayla Thornton at 13 a game. In addition to Plum, both Azura Stevens (14.6ppg) and Dearica Hamby (17.9ppg) easily clear this. Rickea Jackson is working through some stuff to start the season but averaged 13.4 as a rookie. Golden State has a more balanced attack, but the idea that LA can't win if Plum doesn't score simply isn't true. She had 11 in their most recent win and was only 4/9 from the floor, 1/4 from deep.
I also don't see any reason to think that Plum will struggle tonight:
As PNR Ball Handler, 7.5 points (28%), OPP D rank: 10th Transition, 4.3 points (16%), OPP D rank: 11th Spot Up, 3.1 points (11%), OPP D rank: 10th
Not to mention, 46% of her points scored from the field this season have been above the break 3s. Golden State is dead last in the league defending that space. She's had 3 straight below avg scoring games, especially from deep. Seems like a pretty good get right opportunity to me, playing at home against a very familiar opponent.
Val’s outright! Better luck next time. Also, I’ve been around since Lou created covers but one moderator KJOA was a complete tool. So I left. I’m 53, been at this since I’m 15. Sometimes post count is deceptive. when the Val’s got beat by the sparks, plum was on fire. She through up brick after brick in the second half tonight, not everything can be explained with a stat. If it could, nobody would have to work.
1
@LippyLeans
Val’s outright! Better luck next time. Also, I’ve been around since Lou created covers but one moderator KJOA was a complete tool. So I left. I’m 53, been at this since I’m 15. Sometimes post count is deceptive. when the Val’s got beat by the sparks, plum was on fire. She through up brick after brick in the second half tonight, not everything can be explained with a stat. If it could, nobody would have to work.
@LippyLeans Val’s outright! Better luck next time. Also, I’ve been around since Lou created covers but one moderator KJOA was a complete tool. So I left. I’m 53, been at this since I’m 15. Sometimes post count is deceptive. when the Val’s got beat by the sparks, plum was on fire. She through up brick after brick in the second half tonight, not everything can be explained with a stat. If it could, nobody would have to work.
Dead on !! He plagiarized one of my systems and made it his own. I called him on it. Wow what an idiot.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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Quote Originally Posted by Moe_beatches13:
@LippyLeans Val’s outright! Better luck next time. Also, I’ve been around since Lou created covers but one moderator KJOA was a complete tool. So I left. I’m 53, been at this since I’m 15. Sometimes post count is deceptive. when the Val’s got beat by the sparks, plum was on fire. She through up brick after brick in the second half tonight, not everything can be explained with a stat. If it could, nobody would have to work.
Dead on !! He plagiarized one of my systems and made it his own. I called him on it. Wow what an idiot.
Did I provide some motivation ? If that’s the case that’s good. I was beginning to get the wrong impression of you.
Positing a thread gives me a more positive thought. There are a few posters, trolls that are always disputing and never/rarely contribute. Now I can say you’re not him.
anyways best wishes.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
1
Did I provide some motivation ? If that’s the case that’s good. I was beginning to get the wrong impression of you.
Positing a thread gives me a more positive thought. There are a few posters, trolls that are always disputing and never/rarely contribute. Now I can say you’re not him.
With Sloot done for the season, do we get a full effort rally from this Chicago squad? Feels like there would be so much on the shoulders of Van Lith and she has not been given many minutes this season so it's tough to assess. She was talking a big game post injury news at least. Of course Atkins can generate her own, but you have to assume they need some solid PG play tonight to stay within the number, despite the size. Sloot has been the engine. With Jones questionable, I suppose there is some opportunity for Cardoso and Reese to get busy on the boards but having a starter out tends to refocus these elite teams in games they could overlook. Nyara Sabally may not stretch the floor like Jones but she's also no slouch by my estimation. Really impressed me in her minutes last year during the Finals.
0
With Sloot done for the season, do we get a full effort rally from this Chicago squad? Feels like there would be so much on the shoulders of Van Lith and she has not been given many minutes this season so it's tough to assess. She was talking a big game post injury news at least. Of course Atkins can generate her own, but you have to assume they need some solid PG play tonight to stay within the number, despite the size. Sloot has been the engine. With Jones questionable, I suppose there is some opportunity for Cardoso and Reese to get busy on the boards but having a starter out tends to refocus these elite teams in games they could overlook. Nyara Sabally may not stretch the floor like Jones but she's also no slouch by my estimation. Really impressed me in her minutes last year during the Finals.
Dallas is definitely playing better in the 2nd quarter of this season (5-3 so far). They also just beat this PHX team as 11.5 point dogs with Sabally and Copper both playing.
The 6 point line tonight is basically the same as the line when Dallas visited Phoenix on June 11th. This was pre Li Yueru and pre Aziaha James. Arike, Carrington, and Siegrist played. Nalyssa Smith was also around. Copper was out for PHX but otherwise the team was completely healthy.
Just looking at names on the page, 6 feels a bit high especially when compared to the line from a month ago. PHX has lost back to back games for the first time all season and I’m expecting a very focused team effort from them to break that streak. Copper and Sabally out should only have them more focused. Injuries or no, losing back to back games to Dallas would be straight up embarrassing.
On the Wings side, they have 2 road wins all season and both were in Connecticut. For a team that is heavily relying on young players tonight, I could see the PHX crowd being a factor.
Clamp down on D, surround AT with undrafted shooters (plus Sami) and just let it fly.
Finally, this Dallas team is “feeling good” and probably looking ahead a bit to the game in Chicago after this because early in the season they lost back to back games to the Sky. I literally watched Courtney Williams ask Dijonai about their only win when they only had one and Court said multiple times “y’all ain’t beat Dallas? What?” While dijonai was covering her face. Dallas wants to prove something in this 2nd set of 11 games and the 5-3 record is one thing. Getting revenge on a team that beat you twice in back to back games would certainly help
Hard to stay focused on a team you just beat that will be without two starters when the next game up is a bad team that beat you twice and you’re looking for revenge. At least, I hope that’s the case.
PHX MERCURY -6 @ (-110)
risk: 1.32u
0
Dallas is definitely playing better in the 2nd quarter of this season (5-3 so far). They also just beat this PHX team as 11.5 point dogs with Sabally and Copper both playing.
The 6 point line tonight is basically the same as the line when Dallas visited Phoenix on June 11th. This was pre Li Yueru and pre Aziaha James. Arike, Carrington, and Siegrist played. Nalyssa Smith was also around. Copper was out for PHX but otherwise the team was completely healthy.
Just looking at names on the page, 6 feels a bit high especially when compared to the line from a month ago. PHX has lost back to back games for the first time all season and I’m expecting a very focused team effort from them to break that streak. Copper and Sabally out should only have them more focused. Injuries or no, losing back to back games to Dallas would be straight up embarrassing.
On the Wings side, they have 2 road wins all season and both were in Connecticut. For a team that is heavily relying on young players tonight, I could see the PHX crowd being a factor.
Clamp down on D, surround AT with undrafted shooters (plus Sami) and just let it fly.
Finally, this Dallas team is “feeling good” and probably looking ahead a bit to the game in Chicago after this because early in the season they lost back to back games to the Sky. I literally watched Courtney Williams ask Dijonai about their only win when they only had one and Court said multiple times “y’all ain’t beat Dallas? What?” While dijonai was covering her face. Dallas wants to prove something in this 2nd set of 11 games and the 5-3 record is one thing. Getting revenge on a team that beat you twice in back to back games would certainly help
Hard to stay focused on a team you just beat that will be without two starters when the next game up is a bad team that beat you twice and you’re looking for revenge. At least, I hope that’s the case.
6 straight covers for the Sky. 2-4 over that span with wins over LAS. 3rd game in 4 nights, 2nd of a back to back at home after 4 games on the road. They played Minnesota close a couple games ago and Reese was vocal afterwards about feeling robbed by the refs. 3 of their next four games are against the Lynx, including back to back games hosting them right after today’s game.
On the wings side, as I have already said, I think they have had this game circled ever since losing back to back games to Chicago earlier this season. I’m sure they are aware of their “road woes”. This is a great opportunity to pick up a road win against someone other than Connecticut. If not tonight, it’s hard to see when it would happen. Their third and final game on this road stretch is @IND. Next few coming are @SEA, @GSV, @NYL etc… Much stiffer competition in my eyes.
I don’t love that Dallas just picked up Haley Jones, but there’s really no good reason for her to play a lot tonight. Hopefully Koclanes doesn’t ruin this opportunity. I do however like that Kamilla is returning tonight. Chicago has found some momentum without her and even if she is a positive player, I’ve always had some doubts about the two big lineup and I think the shake up will stunt Chicago a bit tonight. Either way, Dallas is well equipped at this point in the season to match up however needed downlow between Yueru, Geiselsoder, Hines-Allen, and McCowan. Kamilla was a problem for them last time. Once again, I am forced to put some faith in Koclanes. I don’t want to, but even for him this shit should be simple.
Dallas Wings ML @-110
risk: 1.32u
0
6 straight covers for the Sky. 2-4 over that span with wins over LAS. 3rd game in 4 nights, 2nd of a back to back at home after 4 games on the road. They played Minnesota close a couple games ago and Reese was vocal afterwards about feeling robbed by the refs. 3 of their next four games are against the Lynx, including back to back games hosting them right after today’s game.
On the wings side, as I have already said, I think they have had this game circled ever since losing back to back games to Chicago earlier this season. I’m sure they are aware of their “road woes”. This is a great opportunity to pick up a road win against someone other than Connecticut. If not tonight, it’s hard to see when it would happen. Their third and final game on this road stretch is @IND. Next few coming are @SEA, @GSV, @NYL etc… Much stiffer competition in my eyes.
I don’t love that Dallas just picked up Haley Jones, but there’s really no good reason for her to play a lot tonight. Hopefully Koclanes doesn’t ruin this opportunity. I do however like that Kamilla is returning tonight. Chicago has found some momentum without her and even if she is a positive player, I’ve always had some doubts about the two big lineup and I think the shake up will stunt Chicago a bit tonight. Either way, Dallas is well equipped at this point in the season to match up however needed downlow between Yueru, Geiselsoder, Hines-Allen, and McCowan. Kamilla was a problem for them last time. Once again, I am forced to put some faith in Koclanes. I don’t want to, but even for him this shit should be simple.
Kamilla might still be in vacation mode. She probably had a hell of a better time playing in Brazil than playing for the Sky lol. Back to work, today is her Monday
GL lippy
Sip on that plus money honey!
1
Kamilla might still be in vacation mode. She probably had a hell of a better time playing in Brazil than playing for the Sky lol. Back to work, today is her Monday
Totally agreed. Reese questionable. If she sits the transition is a bit easier for Kamilla but Chicago loses their engine and I still feel good about the wager. BOL
0
@Digitalkarma
Totally agreed. Reese questionable. If she sits the transition is a bit easier for Kamilla but Chicago loses their engine and I still feel good about the wager. BOL
Interesting note on McBride today. Since putting on a Lynx uniform in 2021, she has played 8 games in Phoenix. She has gone over 14.5 points in 7 of those 8 games and has 4 games of 20+ in that span. So far this season she has 8 games scoring over 14.5 points and 8 games scoring under. She is on a 4 game streak to the under coming into this game. It is perhaps worth noting that she has played 6 games on the road this season and has scored over 14.5 points in 5 of those 6 games. The matchup is not phenomenal, but it could be a whole lot worse. Ladder potential here for sure.
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Interesting note on McBride today. Since putting on a Lynx uniform in 2021, she has played 8 games in Phoenix. She has gone over 14.5 points in 7 of those 8 games and has 4 games of 20+ in that span. So far this season she has 8 games scoring over 14.5 points and 8 games scoring under. She is on a 4 game streak to the under coming into this game. It is perhaps worth noting that she has played 6 games on the road this season and has scored over 14.5 points in 5 of those 6 games. The matchup is not phenomenal, but it could be a whole lot worse. Ladder potential here for sure.
Paige Bueckers has not had back to back games under 20 since May 21st&24th. She has seven games of 20+ this season and 4 of them have come on the road, including a career high 35 @PHX, 21 in both wins @CON, and 20 in Washington (a game that went to OT). She would not have hit 20 in the Washington game without the extra 5 minutes, but what stands out to me is that in road games where Dallas has been competitive, Paige has been a big offensive factor. It is also worth noting that Arike played in that Washington game. Paige's 11 points and 27% from the field in the blowout loss @PHX are both her lowest marks since May 24th. Her 3 assists is her lowest mark on the road all season. The matchup looks really good to me.
She's had 7 or more assists in 5 of 9 road games this season and Chicago gives em up at the 4th highest rate.
She has scored 12% of her points in the RZ and Sky are 11th defending that area.
She has scored 24% of her points above the break beyond the arc and Sky are 12th defending that area.
She has scored 36% of her points inside the arc and outside the paint. Sky are 10th defending that area.
>72% of points scored in areas where Chicago is bottom 4 D.
She has scored 23% of her points as the PNR ball handler. Chicago is 12th defending that action.
She has scored 14% of her points in transition. Chicago again 12th.
With another 16% coming at the line, as long as she gets a few calls tonight the 20 feels pretty inevitable.
Paige Bueckers o19.5 points @-105
risk: 1.26u
Paige Bueckers o6.5 assists @+170
risk: 0.6u
0
Paige Bueckers has not had back to back games under 20 since May 21st&24th. She has seven games of 20+ this season and 4 of them have come on the road, including a career high 35 @PHX, 21 in both wins @CON, and 20 in Washington (a game that went to OT). She would not have hit 20 in the Washington game without the extra 5 minutes, but what stands out to me is that in road games where Dallas has been competitive, Paige has been a big offensive factor. It is also worth noting that Arike played in that Washington game. Paige's 11 points and 27% from the field in the blowout loss @PHX are both her lowest marks since May 24th. Her 3 assists is her lowest mark on the road all season. The matchup looks really good to me.
She's had 7 or more assists in 5 of 9 road games this season and Chicago gives em up at the 4th highest rate.
She has scored 12% of her points in the RZ and Sky are 11th defending that area.
She has scored 24% of her points above the break beyond the arc and Sky are 12th defending that area.
She has scored 36% of her points inside the arc and outside the paint. Sky are 10th defending that area.
>72% of points scored in areas where Chicago is bottom 4 D.
She has scored 23% of her points as the PNR ball handler. Chicago is 12th defending that action.
She has scored 14% of her points in transition. Chicago again 12th.
With another 16% coming at the line, as long as she gets a few calls tonight the 20 feels pretty inevitable.
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