Peach Basket and a Dream

I like to check out the posts on here when I have time. I’ll contribute when I feel like I have something to contribute. I don’t know if it’s always appreciated. On that note, I am starting my own thread. 

In this thread, I will mostly publish thoughts. Feel free to post yours too. If I land on something that I really like then I may post some picks. I do find that writing these things out and discussing them with others can sometimes provide clarity in picks. BOL basketballers. 

LA feels like the right side to me. 3rd game in five nights for GSV, which is significant for the W. On the road. 1-1 season series. Sparks haven’t beaten anyone good. 3-6. Those 3 wins against Dallas, Chicago, and this very same Valks team. The biggest factor is probably the emotional letdown for Valks after crushing the Aces (where their current coach used to coach). 

What I find most interesting (line-wise) is the total of 163.5 because as I said earlier these teams have already played twice. First game was 162.5 and went to 151. Second game was 160.5 and went to 155. Two straight unders in the season series and we’re getting the highest total yet. 

Some players have been in and out. Jackson, Allemand, Salaun, Zandalasini. They should all be available tonight which could explain the line, but I think it also speaks to GSV getting a bit more comfortable, especially on O, and this being their third meeting in 10 games there shouldn’t be too many defensive surprises in a regular season match between two bottom half teams.

Speaking of records, I think Golden State has every right to feel good about a 3-5 franchise start considering not one player on this team averaged 10+ points last year and their most decorated player (Hayes) hasn’t been all that available. Conversely, I think LA and Plum are both disappointed by a 3-6 start. Kelsey didn’t come here to miss the playoffs and rather than looking ahead at LV, my hope is that they will be focused on picking up the easier win tonight against a team they have already beaten but most recently beat them (on the same floor tonight’s game will be played, I might add) 

Concerns:

- Sparks have the Aces on deck and travel to LV in two days. Aside from the usual draw of playing the Aces, we also have the Plum angle. It helps that they’ve played once already. It hurts that LA got crushed and Plum didn’t play very well. 

- Valks don’t play til Saturday after this game. Will they dig deep on a Monday and can the tired legs keep up for 40 minutes? I think we learn a lot about Natalie’s abilities tonight. 

@LippyLeans

 I like it... That's what Covers forum is supposed to be about. I remember those days when people use to share thoughts, systems, have good dialogue discussions and it benefited everybody.

@jdukes0004

 

I don't have time every day, but I will do my best to contribute and at least this way there's a "home base" of sorts. BOL

Val’s outright! Take the 7. 

Cecilia Zandalasini is out. Contract suspended. Going to play euro basket in Italia. 

@SpartanG

 Thanks for letting us know. She is one of the only Valks capable of consistently creating her own shots. 

@Moe_beatches13

 I find it very odd that you have 6 total posts and 3 of them are today preaching Valks win outright. Would you like to share your thinking with this pick?

@LippyLeans

 The Val’s are equalized. They don’t get most of the production with one player. They are veteran enough and they put forth a lot of effort. 
if plum has an off night so go the sparks. Plum had one good outing against the Val’s and I think she has an average or worse night tonight. +7 is a nice amount of points for two teams that are of the same caliber. Val’s outright as they build momentum.

@Moe_beatches13

 A lot of general talk here and not a lot about tonight specifically, but I still thank you for your response.

"If Plum has an off night, so go the sparks"
^ Golden State's leading scorer is Kayla Thornton at 13 a game. In addition to Plum, both Azura Stevens (14.6ppg) and Dearica Hamby (17.9ppg) easily clear this. Rickea Jackson is working through some stuff to start the season but averaged 13.4 as a rookie. Golden State has a more balanced attack, but the idea that LA can't win if Plum doesn't score simply isn't true. She had 11 in their most recent win and was only 4/9 from the floor, 1/4 from deep.

I also don't see any reason to think that Plum will struggle tonight:

As PNR Ball Handler, 7.5 points (28%), OPP D rank: 10th
Transition, 4.3 points (16%), OPP D rank: 11th
Spot Up, 3.1 points (11%), OPP D rank: 10th

Not to mention, 46% of her points scored from the field this season have been above the break 3s. Golden State is dead last in the league defending that space. She's had 3 straight below avg scoring games, especially from deep. Seems like a pretty good get right opportunity to me, playing at home against a very familiar opponent.