The expansion Portland Fire could be in for a rough one when they return to action next week after the WNBA All-Star break. First stop for them will be Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas where they’ll face an Aces team that has already beaten them convincingly twice in Portland and figures to be in an ornery mood.
You see, the defending champion Aces went into the break on a painful note. Finishing a 2-game road trip in Washington, D.C., the Aces led the Mystics 78-71 entering the 4th quarter. Victory seemed at hand with only 4 minutes to go holding a 91-82 lead, but the Aces wound up losing a WNBA instant classic, 100-99, after a last second 3-point attempt bounced away.
The Aces are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS following their last five losses, winning by 10, 10, 15, 8, and 26. That lone single-digit win was the only game they didn’t cover, and not only was it a misleading 88-80 final, it happened to take place in Portland.
On July 9th, the Aces were laying 8.5 and took an 86-70 lead with 2:37 to go when the Fire called a timeout and both teams emptied their benches. The Fire made back-to-back threes in the final minute to barely sneak in the back door and cover by the hook.
The Aces won’t only be stewing about the one that got away in Washington, D.C. They’ll surely still be smarting over their most recent home game, a disastrous, totally embarrassing, and nationally-televised 109-75 drubbing on July 12th to the Indiana Fever, a team that is inferior to them yet still far more popular than they are. Way back on May 9th, the Aces opened their season hosting the Phoenix Mercury, the team they’d just swept in the 2025 Finals. On that night, the Aces got their championship rings handed to them. Then the game began and the Aces got their asses handed to them, a shocking 99-66 final as 9.5-point favorites.
I’ll bet that after that happened, the Aces didn’t believe it would be possible to suffer a worse home loss the rest of the season. But then the Fever schooled them by 34 and THAT……HAS to still be sticking in their craw.
Well, next Tuesday’s home game will be their first chance to redeem themselves in front of the Aces faithful. That loss to the Fever was so jarring and so humbling that it seemed to make everyone forget that just the day before, the Aces had administered the third largest blowout in league history in a 106-58 win over the Mercury.
In addition, I have to believe that the Aces, despite owning the league’s third best record at 18-8, are totally dissatisfied with their shabby 7-5 home record. Of the seven best teams in the WNBA record-wise, the Aces own the worst home record.
Side note - three of those dozen home games were played at T-Mobile Arena, the home of the NHL’s Golden Knights, where two humbling losses took place along with one lucky overtime cover over the Chicago Sky.
The Aces will have to cover double digits over Portland next Tuesday, but at Michelob Ultra Arena, the Aces last three wins were by 19 over Golden State, 15 over Dallas, and 48 over Phoenix.
I don’t expect the sportsbooks will inflate the line on this game. They really aren’t motivated to, because although the Fire have won only 3 of their last 8 games, they’ve been competitive in all of them, going 7-1 ATS. Their only miss came by the hook in Connecticut in a 90-87 loss.
I expect the Aces to be around -13 over the Fire. As of today (7/23), FanDuel has -12.5.
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