6901 R. Nadal +236 6902 N. Djokovic +352 6903 R. Federer +267 6904 A. Murray +830 6905 J.M. Del Potro +2549 6906 R. Soderling +4021 6907 T. Berdych +5026 6908 A. Roddick +7539 6909 M. Raonic +6634 6910 J-W. Tsonga +10051 6911 R. Gasquet +12062 6912 J. Isner +10051 6913 M. Cilic +15077 6914 M. Fish +20102 6915 S. Querrey +20102 6916 G. Monfils +20102 6917 A. Dolgopolov +14072 6918 I. Karlovic +15077 6919 S. Wawrinka +20102 6920 F. Verdasco +20102 6921 N. Davydenko +20102 6922 E. Gulbis +20102 6923 D. Nalbandian +22615 6924 D. Ferrer +20102 6925 L. Hewitt +20102 6926 D. Istomin +22615 6927 J. Melzer +20102 6928 G. Simon +22615 6929 M. Baghdatis +22615 6930 M. Youzhny +22615
I just locked in Federer at +350 at another book. I won with Nadal at the French Open and now im going to ride with Federer on his best surface. Mainly because i got him at +350 which i think is great value when i think he should be around +250 plus i really liked how he played at the french. He fought hard against Nadal, those first 2 sets could of gone either way..
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Player To Win Wimbledon
6901 R. Nadal +236 6902 N. Djokovic +352 6903 R. Federer +267 6904 A. Murray +830 6905 J.M. Del Potro +2549 6906 R. Soderling +4021 6907 T. Berdych +5026 6908 A. Roddick +7539 6909 M. Raonic +6634 6910 J-W. Tsonga +10051 6911 R. Gasquet +12062 6912 J. Isner +10051 6913 M. Cilic +15077 6914 M. Fish +20102 6915 S. Querrey +20102 6916 G. Monfils +20102 6917 A. Dolgopolov +14072 6918 I. Karlovic +15077 6919 S. Wawrinka +20102 6920 F. Verdasco +20102 6921 N. Davydenko +20102 6922 E. Gulbis +20102 6923 D. Nalbandian +22615 6924 D. Ferrer +20102 6925 L. Hewitt +20102 6926 D. Istomin +22615 6927 J. Melzer +20102 6928 G. Simon +22615 6929 M. Baghdatis +22615 6930 M. Youzhny +22615
I just locked in Federer at +350 at another book. I won with Nadal at the French Open and now im going to ride with Federer on his best surface. Mainly because i got him at +350 which i think is great value when i think he should be around +250 plus i really liked how he played at the french. He fought hard against Nadal, those first 2 sets could of gone either way..
i was just thinking about Wimbledon right now, lol.
incredible drop-off in the odds after the top 4. we can only hope that we get a semis group like we had this French Open.
i keep thinking every year that Murray will finally break through to the finals, but i have given up on thinking that.
Djoko hasn't made a final either, but one would think he *might* make a great run. let's see if any injuries come up with any players the next 2 weeks before it starts
btw, FED +350 is a pretty amazing number
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i was just thinking about Wimbledon right now, lol.
incredible drop-off in the odds after the top 4. we can only hope that we get a semis group like we had this French Open.
i keep thinking every year that Murray will finally break through to the finals, but i have given up on thinking that.
Djoko hasn't made a final either, but one would think he *might* make a great run. let's see if any injuries come up with any players the next 2 weeks before it starts
Man it's so hard to make the case for anyone outside the big 4, maybe when the draws come out we'll be able to see if anyone in the draw is going to give Murray trouble because he's definitely the weak link. Definitely would be a great buy off opportunity if you can get one of those heavy dogs into the semis
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Man it's so hard to make the case for anyone outside the big 4, maybe when the draws come out we'll be able to see if anyone in the draw is going to give Murray trouble because he's definitely the weak link. Definitely would be a great buy off opportunity if you can get one of those heavy dogs into the semis
Dolgopolov is worth of a serious look here, especially if he gets a favorable draw.
Constantly getting better, and Tsonga needed extra games in 5 sets last year to take him out.
Dolgopolov has a serious chance against anyone on that list outside the top 3. It's only a matter of time before he starts handling the middle-to-top tier of that list.
Can't wait for the draw, but Dolgopolov is on the top of my radar. If he gets a couple of cake games before having to face a Roddick, or Tsonga.. i'll be on him.
A lot of worthless names on that list, though.
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Dolgopolov is worth of a serious look here, especially if he gets a favorable draw.
Constantly getting better, and Tsonga needed extra games in 5 sets last year to take him out.
Dolgopolov has a serious chance against anyone on that list outside the top 3. It's only a matter of time before he starts handling the middle-to-top tier of that list.
Can't wait for the draw, but Dolgopolov is on the top of my radar. If he gets a couple of cake games before having to face a Roddick, or Tsonga.. i'll be on him.
I think it's just Djokovic or Federer. Nadal didn't play that well at the French. I know he won but that level of play won't cut it at Wimbly. Murray injured so forget it. Nobody else is worth anything but hedge opportunities if you're into that thing. My pick is Djokovic. I just hope him and Fed are on opposite sides of the draw cause obviously they'll both be in the semis barring some massive upset and I hope they don't have to clash there.
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I think it's just Djokovic or Federer. Nadal didn't play that well at the French. I know he won but that level of play won't cut it at Wimbly. Murray injured so forget it. Nobody else is worth anything but hedge opportunities if you're into that thing. My pick is Djokovic. I just hope him and Fed are on opposite sides of the draw cause obviously they'll both be in the semis barring some massive upset and I hope they don't have to clash there.
Not sure how you dismiss Nadal based on his form at a grand slam that he won. He's insanely tough to beat in a best of 5 and he's won Wimbledon before. If you're basing it on level of play then how can you take Federer if he just lost to a man in subpar form?
If anything, Djokovic will have a letdown for a few weeks after failing to capitalize on a glorious chance to get his coveted #1 world ranking spot. There was no way he was going to maintain his amazing form for the entire year and this could be a slight dip in form for him as he's never even won a grass court singles title.
Murray's perplexing, if he truly does have a partial tear in the ankle tendon then I don't see how he expects to fully compete and make an honest run at Wimbledon without doping himself with painkillers before every match.
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Not sure how you dismiss Nadal based on his form at a grand slam that he won. He's insanely tough to beat in a best of 5 and he's won Wimbledon before. If you're basing it on level of play then how can you take Federer if he just lost to a man in subpar form?
If anything, Djokovic will have a letdown for a few weeks after failing to capitalize on a glorious chance to get his coveted #1 world ranking spot. There was no way he was going to maintain his amazing form for the entire year and this could be a slight dip in form for him as he's never even won a grass court singles title.
Murray's perplexing, if he truly does have a partial tear in the ankle tendon then I don't see how he expects to fully compete and make an honest run at Wimbledon without doping himself with painkillers before every match.
Do Federer and Nadal play at higher levels for the big tournaments? It appears that is the case, and might be the reason the joker won't win Wimbledon. Otherwise, I'd think after looking at Djoker's record he'd bounce back and win. That loss should really motivate him and he doesn't have to worry about keeping some streak alive anymore.
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Do Federer and Nadal play at higher levels for the big tournaments? It appears that is the case, and might be the reason the joker won't win Wimbledon. Otherwise, I'd think after looking at Djoker's record he'd bounce back and win. That loss should really motivate him and he doesn't have to worry about keeping some streak alive anymore.
seems logical until you see him play on it. He is worse on grass than Davydenko and seems to fit the surface about as much as Roddick fits clay.
I will agree with the guy who touted Dolgopolov as a potential nice longshot. He is one of the few who in my eyes has the potential to perhaps one day challenge the top 5. And with a volatile young player like him who knows when it will happen. Does not feel like his time in my mind, though.
So yes, overall it feels like it will be another one for the top three with the only question which one. I can see no way to find value in the men's slam futures odds these days when the odds for the top four are so low and it is a lock to be one of them.
Start a discussion thread on women's futures and we would have a shitload to talk about.Men's futures is boring investing in comparison. I see no opportunities at all on the men's side but due to all the unique circumstances think there might be a TON of value on the WTA side of things.
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Quote Originally Posted by daLOCKSMITH:
jmdp
seems logical until you see him play on it. He is worse on grass than Davydenko and seems to fit the surface about as much as Roddick fits clay.
I will agree with the guy who touted Dolgopolov as a potential nice longshot. He is one of the few who in my eyes has the potential to perhaps one day challenge the top 5. And with a volatile young player like him who knows when it will happen. Does not feel like his time in my mind, though.
So yes, overall it feels like it will be another one for the top three with the only question which one. I can see no way to find value in the men's slam futures odds these days when the odds for the top four are so low and it is a lock to be one of them.
Start a discussion thread on women's futures and we would have a shitload to talk about.Men's futures is boring investing in comparison. I see no opportunities at all on the men's side but due to all the unique circumstances think there might be a TON of value on the WTA side of things.
6901 R. Nadal +236 6902 N. Djokovic +352 6903 R. Federer +267 6904 A. Murray +830 6905 J.M. Del Potro +2549 6906 R. Soderling +4021 6907 T. Berdych +5026 6908 A. Roddick +7539 6909 M. Raonic +6634 6910 J-W. Tsonga +10051 6911 R. Gasquet +12062 6912 J. Isner +10051 6913 M. Cilic +15077 6914 M. Fish +20102 6915 S. Querrey +20102 6916 G. Monfils +20102 6917 A. Dolgopolov +14072 6918 I. Karlovic +15077 6919 S. Wawrinka +20102 6920 F. Verdasco +20102 6921 N. Davydenko +20102 6922 E. Gulbis +20102 6923 D. Nalbandian +22615 6924 D. Ferrer +20102 6925 L. Hewitt +20102 6926 D. Istomin +22615 6927 J. Melzer +20102 6928 G. Simon +22615 6929 M. Baghdatis +22615 6930 M. Youzhny +22615
Crazy odds for JDMP given how bad he is on grass and how long it has been since he has played on it. I think a ton of the guys listed underneath him would beat him on grass much like past-his-prime Hewitt did in 09 Wimbledon second round aka Del Potro's best Wimbledon performance to date!
Dude has not played on grass in years and has never been past the second round of Wimbledon yet is the fifth favorite and by a wide margin. Un-fucking-real. In 09 he was straight setted by a past it Hewitt in the second. In 08 he was straight setted in the second by Wawrinka. In 07 it was Fed in the second and you know how many sets it took that time as well. That is Del Potro's Wimbledon history and that makes it just about his grass history period, because he does not usually play grass warm up events. Shows how much he thinks of the surface, no?
Look up his grass record. Look at some footage of him playing on grass. He really really struggles on it and I think looking at both his recent super high odds and how these futures odds almost completely ignore his history on this surface that it is safe to say that he will be a golden fade in Wimbledon this year. If you fade him flat rate and he is out by the fourth round you should have profit even with no chasing because they are going to overrate him to a huge degree.
I know it is tennis regardless of surface and he is The Man outside the top four right now but these futures odds assume he has made an improvement on grass that he has NEVER shown and in my eyes there should be a lot of value in betting that he has in fact not improved on grass from where he was in 2009.
Not sure which one or anything like that, and need to see the draw obv, but it is hard for me to see any scenario other than Del Potro losing in Wimbledon this year as a favorite. He is too shitty on grass to make it far enough to fall as a dog and they will rate him very highly after his recent success. Grass court season is so short that the public does not properly perceive who is good or bad on it IMO.
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Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
Player To Win Wimbledon
6901 R. Nadal +236 6902 N. Djokovic +352 6903 R. Federer +267 6904 A. Murray +830 6905 J.M. Del Potro +2549 6906 R. Soderling +4021 6907 T. Berdych +5026 6908 A. Roddick +7539 6909 M. Raonic +6634 6910 J-W. Tsonga +10051 6911 R. Gasquet +12062 6912 J. Isner +10051 6913 M. Cilic +15077 6914 M. Fish +20102 6915 S. Querrey +20102 6916 G. Monfils +20102 6917 A. Dolgopolov +14072 6918 I. Karlovic +15077 6919 S. Wawrinka +20102 6920 F. Verdasco +20102 6921 N. Davydenko +20102 6922 E. Gulbis +20102 6923 D. Nalbandian +22615 6924 D. Ferrer +20102 6925 L. Hewitt +20102 6926 D. Istomin +22615 6927 J. Melzer +20102 6928 G. Simon +22615 6929 M. Baghdatis +22615 6930 M. Youzhny +22615
Crazy odds for JDMP given how bad he is on grass and how long it has been since he has played on it. I think a ton of the guys listed underneath him would beat him on grass much like past-his-prime Hewitt did in 09 Wimbledon second round aka Del Potro's best Wimbledon performance to date!
Dude has not played on grass in years and has never been past the second round of Wimbledon yet is the fifth favorite and by a wide margin. Un-fucking-real. In 09 he was straight setted by a past it Hewitt in the second. In 08 he was straight setted in the second by Wawrinka. In 07 it was Fed in the second and you know how many sets it took that time as well. That is Del Potro's Wimbledon history and that makes it just about his grass history period, because he does not usually play grass warm up events. Shows how much he thinks of the surface, no?
Look up his grass record. Look at some footage of him playing on grass. He really really struggles on it and I think looking at both his recent super high odds and how these futures odds almost completely ignore his history on this surface that it is safe to say that he will be a golden fade in Wimbledon this year. If you fade him flat rate and he is out by the fourth round you should have profit even with no chasing because they are going to overrate him to a huge degree.
I know it is tennis regardless of surface and he is The Man outside the top four right now but these futures odds assume he has made an improvement on grass that he has NEVER shown and in my eyes there should be a lot of value in betting that he has in fact not improved on grass from where he was in 2009.
Not sure which one or anything like that, and need to see the draw obv, but it is hard for me to see any scenario other than Del Potro losing in Wimbledon this year as a favorite. He is too shitty on grass to make it far enough to fall as a dog and they will rate him very highly after his recent success. Grass court season is so short that the public does not properly perceive who is good or bad on it IMO.
Here I clicked on the thread with the wta in mind then thought I would get no value out of it when I saw it was a ATP discussion but actually I am very glad for this thread now and the guy who said jdmp was a good pick because it has really crystalized in my mind not a plan (yet) but an intent to fade DelPo cold on this surface that I am as of now damn sure would net profit, as one can always profit when they see a scenario ahead of time where someone is wildly overrated.
Another example would be Wozniacki on red clay this year where you could have cashed big dog tickets against her about four or five times this year from Goerges twice to Sharapova to Hantuchova; sometimes a player is flat out overrated on a surface and fading them blindly at a flat rate is a great idea, especially with some well placed chasing and bet amount increases in there.
I only faded Woz vs Goerges and some other girls but missed out on the Hantuchova and Sharapova pick. I regretted not just fading Woz in general on red clay vs decent players so will not make the same mistake with Del Potro not that there are many grass tournaments anyway.
would love to see something like a Del Potro -950 vs Youzhny type situation come up this year. If that match happened I swear on my life Youz would at least get close enough that you could buy out and lock in profit with live betting.
Can't wait to give Istomin a flyer vs Del Potro. We will see how he looks on the grass this week. I will not even have to wait to start my plan, especially since Istomin is someone who is improving slightly and rocks on grass. (see his match vs Berdych at Wimbledon last year or the one where he pushed Nadal to three and had match points before losing; Istomin is a grass court specialist)
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Here I clicked on the thread with the wta in mind then thought I would get no value out of it when I saw it was a ATP discussion but actually I am very glad for this thread now and the guy who said jdmp was a good pick because it has really crystalized in my mind not a plan (yet) but an intent to fade DelPo cold on this surface that I am as of now damn sure would net profit, as one can always profit when they see a scenario ahead of time where someone is wildly overrated.
Another example would be Wozniacki on red clay this year where you could have cashed big dog tickets against her about four or five times this year from Goerges twice to Sharapova to Hantuchova; sometimes a player is flat out overrated on a surface and fading them blindly at a flat rate is a great idea, especially with some well placed chasing and bet amount increases in there.
I only faded Woz vs Goerges and some other girls but missed out on the Hantuchova and Sharapova pick. I regretted not just fading Woz in general on red clay vs decent players so will not make the same mistake with Del Potro not that there are many grass tournaments anyway.
would love to see something like a Del Potro -950 vs Youzhny type situation come up this year. If that match happened I swear on my life Youz would at least get close enough that you could buy out and lock in profit with live betting.
Can't wait to give Istomin a flyer vs Del Potro. We will see how he looks on the grass this week. I will not even have to wait to start my plan, especially since Istomin is someone who is improving slightly and rocks on grass. (see his match vs Berdych at Wimbledon last year or the one where he pushed Nadal to three and had match points before losing; Istomin is a grass court specialist)
Did someone in this thread actually say Davy has value?
at 200-1, with hedge profit if he makes the forth round, yeah I believe he does... he has won a title this year and was runner up to fed in Doha... but once again worthless to make speculation without a draw... IF he faces Raonic in the second round there is no value
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Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:
Did someone in this thread actually say Davy has value?
at 200-1, with hedge profit if he makes the forth round, yeah I believe he does... he has won a title this year and was runner up to fed in Doha... but once again worthless to make speculation without a draw... IF he faces Raonic in the second round there is no value
2010 - loss to Brands 2nd rnd 2009 - loss to Berdych 3rd rnd 2008 - loss to Becker 1st rnd 2007 - loss to Baghdatis 4nd rnd 2006 - loss to Falla 1st rnd 2005 - loss to Bjorkman 2nd rnd (retired) 2004 - loss to Verkerk 1st rnd 2003 - loss to Childs 1st rnd 2002 - loss to Kratochvil 1st rnd
10-17 record on grass...hard to find any value there for someone who's never had any amount of success on grass...especially when his career is on a significant downturn
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Davy's made it to the 4th round ONCE
2010 - loss to Brands 2nd rnd 2009 - loss to Berdych 3rd rnd 2008 - loss to Becker 1st rnd 2007 - loss to Baghdatis 4nd rnd 2006 - loss to Falla 1st rnd 2005 - loss to Bjorkman 2nd rnd (retired) 2004 - loss to Verkerk 1st rnd 2003 - loss to Childs 1st rnd 2002 - loss to Kratochvil 1st rnd
10-17 record on grass...hard to find any value there for someone who's never had any amount of success on grass...especially when his career is on a significant downturn
at 200-1, with hedge profit if he makes the forth round, yeah I believe he does... he has won a title this year and was runner up to fed in Doha... but once again worthless to make speculation without a draw... IF he faces Raonic in the second round there is no value
i dont think it is a good bet to put any money on him...
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Quote Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:
at 200-1, with hedge profit if he makes the forth round, yeah I believe he does... he has won a title this year and was runner up to fed in Doha... but once again worthless to make speculation without a draw... IF he faces Raonic in the second round there is no value
i dont think it is a good bet to put any money on him...
i dont think it is a good bet to put any money on him...
i love it when people think someone has no chance, depending on his warmup suxcuss i will be on davy in his first few round matchups... i know of his poor record at wimbledon, but all in all, based on his play thus far he should make it to at least the 3rd round depending on his draw....
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Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
i dont think it is a good bet to put any money on him...
i love it when people think someone has no chance, depending on his warmup suxcuss i will be on davy in his first few round matchups... i know of his poor record at wimbledon, but all in all, based on his play thus far he should make it to at least the 3rd round depending on his draw....
i love it when people think someone has no chance, depending on his warmup suxcuss i will be on davy in his first few round matchups... i know of his poor record at wimbledon, but all in all, based on his play thus far he should make it to at least the 3rd round depending on his draw....
i never said he doesnt have a chance but he doesnt have a 200 to 1 chance in my opinion but i have been wrong before... I think there are better spots to put your money on but GL AgainstDaConsen, i usually agree with your plays but dont feel insulted because we are giving our opinion..
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Quote Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:
i love it when people think someone has no chance, depending on his warmup suxcuss i will be on davy in his first few round matchups... i know of his poor record at wimbledon, but all in all, based on his play thus far he should make it to at least the 3rd round depending on his draw....
i never said he doesnt have a chance but he doesnt have a 200 to 1 chance in my opinion but i have been wrong before... I think there are better spots to put your money on but GL AgainstDaConsen, i usually agree with your plays but dont feel insulted because we are giving our opinion..
i never said he doesnt have a chance but he doesnt have a 200 to 1 chance in my opinion but i have been wrong before... I think there are better spots to put your money on but GL AgainstDaConsen, i usually agree with your plays but dont feel insulted because we are giving our opinion..
no insult, just like it when public persection is highly skewed against a player... +21000 has to be the best odds for davy coming into this championship ever... I hit it already, small, along with afew other hoping that they amke the third round... no use bets on favs until the draw comes out but as I was shopping for line I couldn't believe how good pinnacle's lines were as compared to some other books... i hit ones with the largest discrpencys... ferrer and davy are listed at 120/1 or worse at a majority of books...
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Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
i never said he doesnt have a chance but he doesnt have a 200 to 1 chance in my opinion but i have been wrong before... I think there are better spots to put your money on but GL AgainstDaConsen, i usually agree with your plays but dont feel insulted because we are giving our opinion..
no insult, just like it when public persection is highly skewed against a player... +21000 has to be the best odds for davy coming into this championship ever... I hit it already, small, along with afew other hoping that they amke the third round... no use bets on favs until the draw comes out but as I was shopping for line I couldn't believe how good pinnacle's lines were as compared to some other books... i hit ones with the largest discrpencys... ferrer and davy are listed at 120/1 or worse at a majority of books...
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