Posted:
#1
Is there anyone that knows where I can find out the % of straight up wins by 3pt dogs over say the last 3-5 years?
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Where to find the % of 3pt. dogs that have won SU over the last 3-5 years (nfl, ncaa)
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Posts: 15
Posted:
#4
here, just go back in the score archives. I did it for last 2 years of the NFL a few weeks back. I'll find it and post it here within the hour.
My thought process was that at the ususal +140 theyre getting on the ML, or more, I think they win these games enough to profit just taking the ML each time.
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Posted:
#7
Not sure if you were only interested in Football, but I was interested in the same thing and did some quick research a while back...I primarily looked into NBA...I found that During the months of Nov/Dec 2006-2007, Visiting Dogs went a combine 72-60 or won 54% of the time. Pretty good results considering the positive moneylines. Think I just got lazy and didn't finish out the season, so I may go back and see what I can find.
However, taking home dogs withing the same pt spread range, I found interesting in: DEC 06/07 25-23
JAN 06/07 27-22
FEB 06/07 13-20
MARCH 06/07 35-35
APRIL 06/07 2-8
So mixed results there, especially after the first few months of the season...Seems taking the away team on the moneyline provides the most value since an away team +1/+2/+3 is only the underdog because they are on the road....whereas a home team at the same spread, should really be getting more points/higher moneyline were they not home...So essentially when taking those away teams, you are getting pretty good value
Anyhow that is just my two cents and quick addition....I am definitely interested in seeing what we can come up
BOL All
However, taking home dogs withing the same pt spread range, I found interesting in: DEC 06/07 25-23
JAN 06/07 27-22
FEB 06/07 13-20
MARCH 06/07 35-35
APRIL 06/07 2-8
So mixed results there, especially after the first few months of the season...Seems taking the away team on the moneyline provides the most value since an away team +1/+2/+3 is only the underdog because they are on the road....whereas a home team at the same spread, should really be getting more points/higher moneyline were they not home...So essentially when taking those away teams, you are getting pretty good value
Anyhow that is just my two cents and quick addition....I am definitely interested in seeing what we can come up
BOL All
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Posted:
#15
Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:
Just quickly checked this season in NFL so far for dogs +1 to +3 and using Chance's +140 estimate, here are the results. (SU)
Away Dogs = 12 - 7 (63.16%) +9.8u
Home Dogs = 22 - 17 (56.41%) +13.8u
Total Dogs = 34 - 24 (58.62%) +23.6u
Just quickly checked this season in NFL so far for dogs +1 to +3 and using Chance's +140 estimate, here are the results. (SU)
Away Dogs = 12 - 7 (63.16%) +9.8u
Home Dogs = 22 - 17 (56.41%) +13.8u
Total Dogs = 34 - 24 (58.62%) +23.6u
1-3 POINT DOGS ARE 34-24 overall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW
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