What's better: Aggressive short-term goal or consistency in the long run?

I've been pondering this all morning and it's really bothering me so I wanted to get everybody's take....

Some bettors -- like Vanzack -- have talked about betting to achieve aggressive goals.
For example: Maybe I have a $10,000 bankroll that I can risk losing (probably assuming that there is some other heavy cash elsewhere.) So, trusting the relative success of my handicapping, I wager 10 units or, $1000, on every bet with a goal of reaching $20,000. Obviously, I plan on making the goal but if I don't it's OK because I can start with another similar bankroll soon.

This is a sharp contrast to the way I believe many of us wager. Most of us -- I think -- would take the same $10,000 and bet one unit on every game, or $100. This way, we feel safe knowing we are minimizing risk. We also feel confident there will be consistent long-term growth.

Anyhow, there is probably a simple mathematical answer to the following question but it is still too early in the day for me to figure it out: Assuming the same handicapping success and wealth, which of the two strategies is most effective? Did anyone think one was better but tried the other and changed their mind? All comments and feedback are appreciated.

Yeah, I guess there is a direct correlation between success and using the aggressive strategy.

If you know your average win percentage and average profit, you can calculate your standard deviation (see what your highest highs and lowest lows are) and determine whether you can clean house with the aggressive approach.

But I think the interesting aspect of all this is how some of the bettors who do the aggressive approach are willing to risk the bankroll and I assume do lose it all from time to time.

I would still love to get more feedback on this...

Nice, that's exactly what we're talking about. 

Aggressive approach.  Low volume high % plays The only way for me to attain this is by only wagering from Mid November-Superbowl. By this point in time during the NFL season, team profiles have formed and my handicapping strategies revolve around recent Home/Away form of a team, together with solid power ratings By this time you know what teams are doing Offensively and Defensively. It gets more predictable as the season rolls on.   To me, the early stages of anything is a crap shoot .The  important thing for me is my experience, and record keeping on all games that have won me money in the past.This  gives me a better gauge of future games and what to look for......and also what to stay away from. I am a firm believer in history repeating itself, and when I see the same set of #'s on an underdog that has a chance of winning the game out right. I will not hesitate to pull the trigger.Confidence in my plays has a lot to do with my aggressive style of wagering.

Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

Take a look here. 

 

 

Thats exactly how I got to where I am now. By the time I became patient &disciplined enough to attain this MM strategy. I had recorded many of the plays that have won me money in the past.This strategy increased my bankroll which in turn led me to increase my % per game. Of course you have to be able tohave exp capping games and attain a positive win %.

Experience Discipline Patience Confidence

......and math 

Good stuff, wizerguy.

The consensus I have reached is this:

* For starters, don't bet period unless you have found something that works in the long run.

* Bet low to medium units on what works for a year or two to build some serious logs of what you're doing right and what you're doing wrong.

* After a while, you've been crunching your own numbers and now you really know what works. Eliminate everything but your most consistent plays and begin the aggressive approach.

you got it like white on rice my friend

 

...........like white on rice         

Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:

Good stuff, wizerguy.

The consensus I have reached is this:

* For starters, don't bet period unless you have found something that works in the long run.

* Bet low to medium units on what works for a year or two to build some serious logs of what you're doing right and what you're doing wrong.

* After a while, you've been crunching your own numbers and now you really know what works. Eliminate everything but your most consistent plays and begin the aggressive approach.