hi guys ive ben on covers for a few years now and mostly following your choices. Well I'm done school now and want to take it a bit more seriously.. I want to learn how to handicap football. I'm looking for some1 to mentor me for a hobby so I can learn how to make my own choices. I think its really awesome when someone says. I've handicapped it to be a (score) to (score). I bought the book Sharp Sports Betting by stanford wong. It's teaching my about "value betting". and if I feel it can hit X% of the time.. well i dont know how to handicap to allow myself to make a % call on the bet...
Covers has been awesome to me for a few years now and I would love it if some1 can help out the "smalltimer"
thanks
mike.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
hi guys ive ben on covers for a few years now and mostly following your choices. Well I'm done school now and want to take it a bit more seriously.. I want to learn how to handicap football. I'm looking for some1 to mentor me for a hobby so I can learn how to make my own choices. I think its really awesome when someone says. I've handicapped it to be a (score) to (score). I bought the book Sharp Sports Betting by stanford wong. It's teaching my about "value betting". and if I feel it can hit X% of the time.. well i dont know how to handicap to allow myself to make a % call on the bet...
Covers has been awesome to me for a few years now and I would love it if some1 can help out the "smalltimer"
Best advice I can give you is keep it simple. With all the stats out there you can easily get too caught up looking at useless details. By the time you go over all the stats you end up canceling both teams out.
--YPP margin alone will bring in some winners. (YPPO-YPPD)
-- don't get too caught up in injuries, for every starter thats out there's a back up that wants to prove he can be a starter. The injuries to watch out for is the center and the QB's throwing hand. I've seen so many games where the big name QB is out and the backup comes out firing the best game of his life.
--watch games you don't bet on, by week 4 you'll have a good feel on teams and it will help you make decisions.
--bet dogs, the value is in the dogs. Personally I don't like betting any team that's favored by more than 2.5 points. Remember, when they set the line they set it based on who they think public will bet on. Sometimes I will take a team at -6 or 5.5, if I'm going to bet a fav I want a key number.
There's more I'll think of them later.
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Best advice I can give you is keep it simple. With all the stats out there you can easily get too caught up looking at useless details. By the time you go over all the stats you end up canceling both teams out.
--YPP margin alone will bring in some winners. (YPPO-YPPD)
-- don't get too caught up in injuries, for every starter thats out there's a back up that wants to prove he can be a starter. The injuries to watch out for is the center and the QB's throwing hand. I've seen so many games where the big name QB is out and the backup comes out firing the best game of his life.
--watch games you don't bet on, by week 4 you'll have a good feel on teams and it will help you make decisions.
--bet dogs, the value is in the dogs. Personally I don't like betting any team that's favored by more than 2.5 points. Remember, when they set the line they set it based on who they think public will bet on. Sometimes I will take a team at -6 or 5.5, if I'm going to bet a fav I want a key number.
Oh I almost forgot the most important rule! bankroll management, make sure you bet within your bankroll and NEVER EVER try to make up your losses on a sunday night or monday night game.
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Oh I almost forgot the most important rule! bankroll management, make sure you bet within your bankroll and NEVER EVER try to make up your losses on a sunday night or monday night game.
sharky thanks for helping... i appreciate it bigtime. I bought the Heist football book and i got more stats to shake a stick at.. please add more info if you like.. I just want to be able to do my own dirty work instead of counting on others.
I have a question with money management.. when betting consistantly 1 unit. say $5. (theres a reason im smalltimer) whan do i look at my bankroll and reevaluate what 1 unit should be? when im down to 50% or up to 150% of my original bankroll??
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sharky thanks for helping... i appreciate it bigtime. I bought the Heist football book and i got more stats to shake a stick at.. please add more info if you like.. I just want to be able to do my own dirty work instead of counting on others.
I have a question with money management.. when betting consistantly 1 unit. say $5. (theres a reason im smalltimer) whan do i look at my bankroll and reevaluate what 1 unit should be? when im down to 50% or up to 150% of my original bankroll??
With a small roll you should be able to do 5% of your bankroll. So $5 bets would need a $100 bankroll. As your roll get's bigger like $1000+ then you can start lowering your percentage, between 1.5% and 5% is a good range.
My unit size fluctuates throughout the season, as my roll gets bigger then I stick with my % set for the season. So say you have a $100 bankroll and you go 3-0 in week one making your roll $114.70, then your unit size for week 2 would be $5.74 a game.
Then if you're losing your unit size gets smaller.
Try to narrow your selections to about 3 games a week so you don't have too much out there. That will help you make better selections too.
Don't feel like an idiot making $5 bets if you have to. Have fun with it and learn from your mistakes. I would reccomend starting with about $200 to $250 if you can, and you could drop your percentage to something like 3% if you want to be more conservative. Because most books have a $5 minimum and if you drop under $100 then your stuck with $5 bets.
Most guy's on this site that say they're betting 5k or 10k are full of shit anyway, they're probably betting $10.
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With a small roll you should be able to do 5% of your bankroll. So $5 bets would need a $100 bankroll. As your roll get's bigger like $1000+ then you can start lowering your percentage, between 1.5% and 5% is a good range.
My unit size fluctuates throughout the season, as my roll gets bigger then I stick with my % set for the season. So say you have a $100 bankroll and you go 3-0 in week one making your roll $114.70, then your unit size for week 2 would be $5.74 a game.
Then if you're losing your unit size gets smaller.
Try to narrow your selections to about 3 games a week so you don't have too much out there. That will help you make better selections too.
Don't feel like an idiot making $5 bets if you have to. Have fun with it and learn from your mistakes. I would reccomend starting with about $200 to $250 if you can, and you could drop your percentage to something like 3% if you want to be more conservative. Because most books have a $5 minimum and if you drop under $100 then your stuck with $5 bets.
Most guy's on this site that say they're betting 5k or 10k are full of shit anyway, they're probably betting $10.
Absolutely Sharkey. You think the exact same way I do when it comes to laying bets in the NFL as I pretty do the same shit with some tweaks of my own. Man, I'm getting pumped for this season to start.
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Absolutely Sharkey. You think the exact same way I do when it comes to laying bets in the NFL as I pretty do the same shit with some tweaks of my own. Man, I'm getting pumped for this season to start.
sharky thanks for the info. what formula or certain stats do you put your time into studying. Im usually betting on who ever has the better record or winning streak.
thanks for the info...
keeper comin (if you dont mind)
cheers
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sharky thanks for the info. what formula or certain stats do you put your time into studying. Im usually betting on who ever has the better record or winning streak.
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