START OF SEASON NBA

 The NBA "investment plays officially starts today. I will show my playsif I have time, in chart form each day. Enjoy the plays. In the long term I am confident they will become investments. I was about 16 units ahead for the first 10% of the season. I did nothing during this period of time up until yesterday, when I got Chicago at +120. Of course teams are forming character in the first part of the season. It is a bad time to do anything until the evidence unfolds. Teams like Atlanta and Miami are much better this year. Teams like San Ant. and Dal. are worse. As I said you have to let the season unfold to tell who's who. The chart I am using will show the following; the  1-actual spread   2- the value spread. The value spread is what the spread should be before I add or subtract power points. In many case the line makers have already adjusted to certain knowledge that causes teams to play differently from their norm  thus the power spread is tilted usually to the linemakers favor. Therefore the actual spread has changed somewhat. 3- The point spread consistency rating. I gave out the info on this in my last listing. This is not a primary factor but rather it makes a play either stronger or weaker using primary factors  4-  I give power points to teams. These are weighted values. I have a 20,000 game data base that brings up situations that have shown teams will either play better or worse than their norm when certain factors happen. I call this situational handicapping. Just like the stock market ,a stock go's through cycles. The key is to measure the likelyhood of what direction the stock will be headed. Such indicators are not infallible but good indicators predict a stock's fate  a good majority of the time. We use that same logic in predicting games. What I do is mechanical and no emotion gets into the way. That is important!

  How to use.In the first game Ind opened at - 6 1/2.Ind has a 69% consistency rating. Phil has a 39%.That is good for Ind. The value spread without adding anything else should be -6. The power points has Ind getting 8 points Add that to the -6 and you get 14. The actual spread is -6 1/2. Ind is 7 1/2 units to the good. I round this off to 8. Bankroll% should be 1/2 the difference or 4%

                            Todays Card

teams spread- consistency%- value spread-powerpoints -final#

PHIL-IND-6 1/2  39%P 68%IND   -6IND      +8IND  +14IND(+7 1/2)

UTAH-6 CHAR   44U-39C           -3U         +10U    +13U (+7)

ATL-2 1/2NJ      82A-39NJ     CONTRADITORY DATA NO PLAYS

WA-MIA-6 1/2   38W-45M           -5M        +6M      +11M(+4 1/2)

OKLA- NY-8 1/2 62O-56NY           NO PLAY

MIL-MEM-4 1/2  71 MI-47 MEM     NO PLAY

DEN-BOS -9 1/2                          NO PLAY

PORT-N ORL-7   61P-21NO         -4N          +2P       -2P (+5)

HOU -5-SAN ANT 44H-22D           NO PLAY

ORL-DAL-1          62O-17D           P          +3 O      +4 ORL(+4)

PH-6 SAC           44P-62S           -1          +10P      +11P(+5)

DET-LAK-10        50D-89 LA        -7LA      +6d        -1 DET( +9)

 

UNIT STRENGTH  9 DET 8 IND 7 UTAH 5 PHOE,PORT,MIA 4 ORL

 

    7 VALUE PLAYS. THAT IS A LOT BUT THAT IS WHAT I CAME UP WITH. I AM LIKELY TO WIN TODAY.

 GOOD FORTUNE.

  

                            

im keeping an eye on your prof, thanks for the info, for the records your picks are:

 

det +10indy -6.5utah -6pho -6port +7mia  -6.5orl +1

 I am not in position to know when there are key players with possible injuries who will not play in a game I recommend. When that happens the game is to be passed if the injury is on the side we want to win. I will post games as early as possible but on occasions a key player may be injured and it may be announced late before a game . Such a game is occuring tonight. Williams for Utah is not playing.It was announced after I posted my picks. He is a key player. Key players are starters who are usually one of the teams 3 best players or  the starting point guard . We can expect this to happen about 10-15 times a year. We will not count such games whether they win or lose. I can not do anything about this. You must be alert and and look for annoucements. Usually there  is ample warning that such a possibility exists. Wait until the end to see if the player is playing. If not pass. This is fair since I will post many cards early. This game is a pass.

No Caps. Thanks

When I release my games early I can not tell if a key player is going to play when an injury might keep him out. When a player is a key player and can not play that would call for a pass . As I said later yeasterday  the Utah game was a pass. Williams did not play and that was announced late. Also because of my brutally busy schedule while trying to handicap college and pro basketball and football and hiring some people for my business I did not realize that Nash was suspended for the Phoenix game. I count that as a lose because that information was readily available long before the game. If you look at my picks, remember that I do not play on a team that is losing a key member if that player played in the game before. If he did not play in a series of games it would be a play because I am basing my data accordingly.  It is important to look at the injured and suspension list. If you see one of my recommended plays that has a key player on this list and that player played in the last game but not today then pass.

 I see that Covers lists Matchbook. Matchbook takes only 2%. On average I get +102 odds with them. Therefore after their 2% take I get on average, games at -100. Yesterday in football Cinc. was at +107. Also if you like live betting Cincy was +240 going into the 4th quarter. I do not like watching games when teams make bad  mental mistakes. The coach on Cincy is an idiot for going for  a 4th down play at his own 28 in the second quarter with a 7-0 lead. That almost cost our 9 unit play to lose. Their players were also doing some dumb things and the kicker decided to miss 3 field goals within decent range after missing only 1 all year. This game could have been a comfortable win instead of a grind it out win. 

                           When to bet

 Bet early -----------  All teams with a winning % that has a better winning % than opponent

 for the rest _______  home teams that are playing other sub 500 teams

Bet late__________   Visitors with a sub 500 record or home teams with a worse record than opponent

 BET LATE  If a key player may not play due to injury or suspension. PASS if player is not playing

This formula works in one's favor 75%+ of the time if there is a line change.

    With the Utah game being a no play ,my picks were 4-2. 23+units to -13 or 10 units ahead using Matchbook. It would have been better had I known about the Nash suspension. I also won on the 9 unit football game . Basketball is +10 for the official start of the seasonusing Matchbook. I am only posting plays I am interested in. All others are passes.

                               Saturday plays

teams spread consistency%  value spread powerpoints difference

 

GS Lac -3      31gs 19 lac           -1 gs         +7 Lac      +4 lac

NJ Atl  -9 1/2  53nj 63 atl             -11at        +3atl         +4 1/2at

Ind Chi-6 1/2   56i 53 c                -2ch         +5in           +9in

NOrl Hou-3     17n31h                 -2h            +4h          +3h

 The plays Ind+9(bet late) Atl+4 Lac( bet early ) Hou+3 (bet late)

There are no injury reports or suspensions      

 

 

                                        

 

 

                       There are no plays today

     Yesterday was a very frustrating day to say the least. That however is the nature of  playing games. I had 6 games and with some luck would have won all six but won only 3. The 3 wins were  comfortable wins. The other 3 were frustrating loses. Ny was covering by 12 with 3 minutes to go and covered by 2 at the end or regulation. 

Unfortunately it went into overtime and we lost. As for the Orlando game they were covering with 5 seconds to go and allowed an uncontested basket at the end to cost us a cover. Sacr. on the other hand was covering by 7 with 3 minutes to go and blew a nice lead. As a whole I was 24 points ahead when combining all 6 games. That normally would a 5-1  night. The whole day was strange ,even it football. The Pitt -San Diego game was really strange.That was the first game ever in resulting in a 11-10 score. The refs. blew the td. at the end of the game. With all their cameras and instant replay how could they have missed it as they later admitted. I learned a long time ago that slumps as well as extended winning streaks are to be expected and complaining about losing does no good. I do not get to upset with them and I prepare for them.  Winning streaks however; can be more dangerous then loses. The bettor often gets the "Messiah complex" and thinks he can do no wrong. He is doomed when that happens .I am about 10  units behind and am 8-8 in my picks. That will change. I will be over 200 units ahead at the end of the season.

 There is a place called Sportsbook Review that rates all books. It is worth looking at. I have said that Matchbook is the best place. I got odds at an average of +102. They take 2% so I get games on average at even odds. I cannot figure out why anybody would get eggs that come from the same farmer and pay 10% more from a store right next to the lower priced store. It costs a typical player over a $1000 in any given year by paying the extra money!

 My plays will take off soon and I get on big winning streaks at sometime during the year. When I post my  winning % rating of each team it is significant when one team has a 40% higher rating over the other. In itself you can expect to make money when this comes up. Be patient and you will see my picks start getting hot.

 

  I will not have too much time until thankgiving but the card is good.I do not have time to post charts but will do around thanksgiving when my schedule eases up. I should have a breakout day soon and I hope its today!

 Charlotte 4 units +5 1/2

 Cleve      5 units  -5 1/2

  Ind        5 units   -2 1/2 

Sac       10units    +5 1/2

Port       10units    -1 1/2   I got the game at +1   This is  a very good play

  In a statistical oddity I was 18 points to the good when adding and subtracting points from games yesterday I won or lose and was 24 ahead Sunday and lost both days. What I do is mechanical and has worked well for 20 years with no losing years, in fact not even close to a losing year.I am 8-9 so far and about 25 units behind. That will change. I likely will have a winning streak of 8 or 9 games or more. That happens every year. I have a 25000 game file and since what I do is mechanical and I am doing the same thing I expect a breakout soon.  Plays today are Tor 5 units, Phil 4 units, Port 7 units. My 10 unit plays are mysteriosly losing. That will change. I started doing college yesterday I had one play that was San Fran to lose. They did.Today I like Drake, Char, and Wolf to win and Butler to lose. I officially start college games Dec 1st though.

 Check out my picks for the NBA. When I get hot then do what you will with the games.Today I got Portland early at + 106 and -6. Now i could get Chi at + 114. That would be a sure middle game if I wanted to do that. I do not. As I have said winning teams then home teams should be played early unless there are possible injuries. All games I liked went my way with  point spread changes.