I created a system last year from the "reverse line" theory that worked at an incredible rate, 84-31, 73%, netting +52 units, from Aug 30 to Oct 01, 2007. I worked on it from the All-Star break until I finally came up with this version. I've been trying it since day one and it's only breaking even. however, in the past 14 days it's 39-34, 54%,, netting +0.11 unit, an improvement over the first 2 weeks. I didn't really expect this system to work so early in the season.
When it starts to produce at a profitable level, I'll post it.
I base my picks for baseball exclusively on line movement. You have to know the betting percentages. Sportsinights provides this and covers offers it too with the same feed. Reverse line movement is a general indication of "wiseguy" money. I prefer to fade the public on all of my picks because I believe they are more wrong than right.
The books can't avoid the games, they have to post a number on everyone. And yes, even though the goal "supposedly" is to balance the action, most of the time they don't.
Many times they will post soft lines to trap the public. This issue has been debated but the books gamble too. The only way you can figure this out is to know the betting percentages and monitor line movements up until gametime. Sbrlines is a good place to see line histories on the major sportsbooks for free.
My pick today was the Nationals (even though they lost). They started as +125 dogs but by game time they were even money or even -105-110 at some places yet 70% of the bets were on the other side. Perhaps a well respected betting syndicate or group of wiseguys liked the Nationals and could explain the line move.
But how do you know that these guys are sharps? If the books respect them, than so do I. Regardless of what you do, you have to find a way to make it work for you if this is your choice. It took me awhile to figure it out. I only bet one play a day for baseball and sometimes i flat bet, sometimes i'll use some sort of calculated chase.
Money management is more important than the picks themselves. But like Jack Bauer said, you can't blindly follow it. When I see a reverse line move, I handicap the game myself and try to figure out if the public missed something. I can go on and on, but that's it for now.
Good Luck.
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