Perception in sport betting

I've been betting mostly hockey, both NHL and european hockey and I observed that the biggest surprises and consequently the biggest money rise from the biggest differences between the teams. The only explanation might be the way the teams perceive their opponents, the way the bookies perceive the situation and the way the bettors perceive both aspects (team stats and the odds from the bookies).

I have in mind some recent games in NHL and european leagues:

Look at Blues@Bruins last night. You are Bruins, #1 in Eastern, 17-3-2 at home and you face on your home ice the St.Louis Blues who plays 7-14-1 and the stands on the last place in the Western. Do you fear them enough to enter the ice focused enough? Don't think so. On the other hand, the Blues had nothing to lose, nothing to defend or nothing to win. They feared because they played against the most succesful team and that made them more careful. The truth is the bad teams don't beat themselves just because they're the last in the standings. They are entering the ice to play the game as they usually do.

Think about Minnesota who defeated Blackhawcks 4-1 on their home ice.

Going back friday think at Atlanta who defeated 7-2 Nashville.

I think that if the difference between the team's value and their stats is little and the teams fear one each other the better team (accordingly to the stats) wins. But if the difference of value is bigger and if the better teams are playing on their prefered environment that makes them feel confident and sure about the result many surprises can come up. And the difference between the teams is made bigger when it comes to sport betting, thanks to the bookies, the oddsmakers and the betting public.

So, if we want to make money we got to learn to love the big road dogs and the small home and road favourites.

I didn't do any statistical research to support my theory, but I'll try to prove it the next days in this topic.

I'll start with tonight's NHL games:

1. Anaheim @ NY Rangers - home win (teams focused, equal value, Rangers play better at home).

2. Montreal @ Atlanta - road win (Montreal plays better and are not playing on their home ice so they got to be careful with Atlanta who embarassed the Predators lately)

3. Washington @ Ottawa - home win ( Sens playing better at home and focused because they'll face Ovechkin)

4. Carolina @ Pittsburgh - home win (Pens play better).

5. LA Kings @ Minnesota - away win (Minnesota will underestimate the Kings)

6. Columbus @ Edmonton - home win (Edmonton playing better)

7. Detroit @ Phoenix - away win (Red Wings playing better)

8. Vancouver @ San Jose - away win ( San Jose underestimate Vancouver, Canucks desperate for a win, off the pressure of home crowd they'll play better and score a lot).

Excellent situational strategy. Will follow.

I think the nba is the toughest to figure out,but the easiest as far as strategies.Most teams play 3 games per week,but everyone has a few weeks where they have to play 4 or just 2.The teams that play 4 usually play 2 back to back games,so i would say if they play their 4th game on sun after playing the night before,and especially if they are heading back home or on the road the next day....i would fade fade fade them.I don't care if it's the best team playing the worst,you never know how these guys are going to play and who will show up,especially if they were out partying the night before.A successful nba gambler once told me to bet the     house against the team who leaves for a long roadtrip after they have been at home for the week.He said they lose the first road game 80% of the time.He was right when i kept up on it,but stopped tracking it a few weeks ago.The problem is,you only get to make 1 or 2 bets per week using this system,so you have to be really diciplined and bet BIG in order to make money.

And let's see the money balance for tonight (50% hits is not good).

I usually play flat, same amount on each game. Every play has alocated just 1 unit, no matter what.

I'll make the balance using the decimal odds system, cause I'm not used to the american odds system:

 

NY Rangers  + 0.689 units

Montreal       -1.000 units

Ottawa         +1.200 units

Pittsburgh     -1.000 units

LA Kings      +1.580 units

Edmonton     +0.470 units

Detroit         -1.000 units

Vancouver    -1.000 units

 

Total = -0.06 units.

After all is not a disaster. Needs more attention at the odds when picking the plays.

Wednesday plays:

 

1. Montreal + 1.5 and New Jersey moneyline

2. NY Islanders + 1.5 and over 5.5

3. Boston -1.5

4. Atlanta @ Philadelphia over 6.0 and Atlanta +1.5

5. Buffalo @ Tampa under 5.5 and Buffalo moneyline

6. Dallas @ Florida over 5.5 and Dallas +1.5

7. Los Angeles @ Colorado over 5.5 and Colorado moneyline.

8. St Louis @ Chicago over 6.0 and Chicago -1.5

9. Columbus @ Calgary over 5.5.

Dog, don't look at all your losing plays as "stupid". Upsets happen, and if capping was that easy, the books would be out of buisness. Find angles that work for you and keep plggin along, BOL.

Thanks jhudd70!