NHL Home Chase System

Hey guys. I have done allot of reading and checking stats over the past week. I started with the 05-06 (post lockout) and charted every home stand of at least 4 games. You then bet one unit on the home team in game one and chase till you win. It can get pricey but not that often. You do not play if the home team has one of the top 10 worth home records.

In 05-06 the system went 79-1 with the only loss going to St.louis. Now you would not have played that series as they were one of the leagues worst home teams. If you remove the bottom 10 teams the system goes 61-0. Plus 61 units!

In 06-07 the system went 54-2 with the losses going to Edmonton and Wash. You would not have played Washington or Edmonton as they did not meet the rules. If you take out the bottom 10 home teams you went 33-0. Plus 33 units.

In 07-08 the system is 65-0. If you take the bottom 10 home teams out you are 41-0. up 41 units.

Now if you are wondering how many times did a home team need to go to the 4th game to win the chase the answer is not that often.

05-06: NYR, Tor, and SJ each went to 4 games once and Vancouver went to six games before winning.

06-07: no series went 4

07-08: SJ and FLA each went once to a 4th game.

Seems solid. I am going to combine this with a Road team chase system that have the same if not better numbers. Chase chase chase!

Please add any good bad or ugly comments........

should read> You do not play if the home team has one of the top 10 worst home records.

First night of the system.

Plays are:

Montreal: -113 Win (in a huge fluke)
Carolina: -118 Loss (OT)


System is 1-0

Thanks for sharing your numbers juice.  One question.  Lets assume Ottawa have a 4 game home stand and lose their first game.  You would then take them in game #2?  What if they were say playing Atlanta and the line was -300 for Ottawa???  Your numbers don't include prices and since with hockey there are money lines. 60-0 doesn't mean there is always a huge profit like there would be had it been a sports with spreads.

Hey Shreks. As with all chase systems you have to include the juice you lost in the first game in your bet for the second game. Example tonight i lost with carolina at -118 (as it turns out my units are $100) so i lost $118. in Carolinas next game i will have to bet $218 at what ever the line is. This chase system can and will get expensive if you miss the first two or three games of a series. However like my numbers show, it rarely gets that far and has won each and every time.

Well i have to change one number. As i was going through all the games a second time to make sure of my numbers i found that i missed a 4 game home loss by Anaheim in 05-06. They were a top home team so this would be the only loss in the system. I calculated it would have lost 15 units. So plus 41 units for the year.

Do you cut off a losing streak if they lose the entire homestand?  How many games in row must they play at home for you to bet it?

so when do you determine who are the bottom three home teams? from the previous year or does it change as the year progresses?

bottom ten sorry....

the remaining plays for the '08 season would be
Minnesota Wild 3/26 - 4/3......and Vancouver Canucks 3/30 - 4/5
the tampa bay lightning have a 4 game homestand left but they are one the 10 worst home teams in the nhl..... bol anyone that has the bankroll to try this

Juice, when would be a good time to start this system? Mid-November? Beginning of December?

I'm going to chase Minnesota and Vancouver this year, and give it a go next year.

I did some research.  A couple of notes:

This year, NO TEAM lost 4 straight on a 4-game homestand.  88-0! 

I wouldn't worry about including the 10 worst teams at home.  Over the past 3 seasons, a team has dropped its first 4 at home only 7 times out of 224 series.  One of those teams cleared the losses but not until game 6 of the homestand.  Which leads me to my next point:

Bankroll to bet size.  I figured that in order to afford 4 games, you need at least 70 units.  Several 3 game losing streaks would have forced you to dip down to 70 units to bet the 4th game. (not that you'd bet 70 on the 4th, but adding in your losses) 

What gets tricky is whether or not you cut off after 4 losses, even if the team is at home.  I think you should, because there are so few homestands that are beyond 4 games.  If you do lose a 5 or 6 game homestand, you're really going to be stuck. Also, you're initial bankroll to bet size ratio will have to be much bigger if you're willing to bet games 5 and 6.  Like 200 to 300 units instead of the 100 units that I think will work for this. 

Assuming you bet all teams, which I recommend, and that you cut off after 4 games no matter what, this system would have returned 15.44, 6.72, and 88 units over the past 3 years.  The 88 is insane, so I think a reasonable return would be that 7 to 15 unit range. For a system that requires ZERO thought, has been profitable for 3 straight years, and requires only a 100 unit bankroll, I like it. 

Just to clarify, this year, no team lost the first 4 games of any 4 game or longer homestand. 

I guess it's on to the next season for me to try this system....