Here are the stats so far for the -1.5 puck line. I did it for all series so far. You can delete bottom teams or such as you see fit, but these stats are for all 3 games plus home series. Ex Pit had a 4 game series at home. The W4 means they won by -1.5 in their 4th game. So you could of faded them +1.5 and won in their first 3 games.... Something to look into as well... For the 4 series, the TB one, they had 5 home games and the L5 means they did not cover the -1.5 in all 5 games....
October
Team - Date - #Games
Pit 11 4g W4
Ott 11 4g W2
Flo 11 3g W3
TB 11 5g L5
Cal 11 3g L3
LA 12 4g W2
NYr 13 3g W1
Atl 14 3g L3
Mon 15 5g W2
Ana 15 3g W2
StL 16 7g W1
Nas 18 3g W1
Chi 19 3g W1
NYi 23 3g L3
Min 23 3g L3
Pho 23 4g W3
Buf 27 3g W3
LA 27 7g W6
NJ 29 4g W2
Ana 29 3g L3
November
Team - Date - #Games
Bos 1 3g W1
Van 2 6g W2
Chi 3 5g W1
SJ 4 3g W1
Ana 5 6g W1
Col 5 4g W3
Was 6 3g W2
Car 7 3g L3
Pit 13 3g W2
NYr 15 3g L3
NJ 15 3g W2
Car 16 4g W3
Tor 17 3g L3
TB 18 4g W2
Ott 20 3g W2
Min 20 5g W5
Buf 21 4g L4
Flo 24 3g L3
Pho 28 4g W2
Mon 29 7g W3
Car 30 4g W4
December
Team - Date - #Games
Det 1 4g L4
Min 1 4g W2
SJ 2 5g W1
Ott 3 3g W1
StL 5 3g W3
Dal 5 3g W3
Col 7 3g W2
Phi 9 4g W3
NJ 10 3g W1
Edm 11 3g W2
LA 11 4g W1
Bos 13 3g W1
Van 14 4g W1
Det 15 4g W2
Mon 18 3g W1
Atl 18 3g L3
Cal 19 5g W3
NJ 19 4g W1
Flo 21 3g W1
NYr 23 3g L3
Col 23 3g W3
Van 26 3g W2
Car 27 3g W2
StL 27 3g L3
Dal 27 3g W3
Pho 27 3g W2
Tor 30 4g W3
Ana 31 4g W3
January
Team - Date - #Games
Bos 1 6g W2
Was 1 4g W1
Nas 1 5g W4
Edm 3 5g W1
Det 6 3g W1
Cal 6 3g W1
Pho 6 3g L3
Phi 8 3g W1
Flo 8 3g W1
LA 8 4g
Van 9 5g
Ana 9 3g
Col 10 3g W1
Chi 11 3g W1
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Here are the stats so far for the -1.5 puck line. I did it for all series so far. You can delete bottom teams or such as you see fit, but these stats are for all 3 games plus home series. Ex Pit had a 4 game series at home. The W4 means they won by -1.5 in their 4th game. So you could of faded them +1.5 and won in their first 3 games.... Something to look into as well... For the 4 series, the TB one, they had 5 home games and the L5 means they did not cover the -1.5 in all 5 games....
OK now here are the stats if you faded the home teams for all the home series... So your taking Visitor +1.5 Only 2 teams so far covered in a home series.. Boston and Detroit each covered in all 3 games... So the record is 73-2 and we have 5 series still in play. So for the NYR on Oct 13 you see they won their 1st game by W1 and X2 means they did not cover on their second game... Boston and Detroit series are marked with *******
October
Team - Date - #Games
Pit 11 4g W4 Ott 11 4g W2 Flo 11 3g W3 TB 11 5g L5 Cal 11 3g L3 LA 12 4g W2 NYr 13 3g W1 X2 Atl 14 3g L3 Mon 15 5g W2 Ana 15 3g W2 StL 16 7g W1 X2 Nas 18 3g W1 X2 Chi 19 3g W1 X3 NYi 23 3g L3 Min 23 3g L3 Pho 23 4g W3 Buf 27 3g W3 LA 27 7g W6 NJ 29 4g W2 Ana 29 3g L3
November
Team - Date - #Games
Bos 1 3g W1 W3***** Van 2 6g W2 Chi 3 5g W1 X3 SJ 4 3g W1 X2 Ana 5 6g W1 X2 Col 5 4g W3 Was 6 3g W2 Car 7 3g L3 Pit 13 3g W2 NYr 15 3g L3 NJ 15 3g W2 Car 16 4g W3 Tor 17 3g L3 TB 18 4g W2 Ott 20 3g W2 Min 20 5g W5 Buf 21 4g L4 Flo 24 3g L3 Pho 28 4g W2 Mon 29 7g W3 Car 30 4g W4
December
Team - Date - #Games
Det 1 4g L4 Min 1 4g W2 SJ 2 5g W1 X2 Ott 3 3g W1 X2 StL 5 3g W3 Dal 5 3g W3 Col 7 3g W2 Phi 9 4g W3 NJ 10 3g W1 X3 Edm 11 3g W2 LA 11 4g W1 X3 Bos 13 3g W1 W3****** Van 14 4g W1 X3 Det 15 4g W2 Mon 18 3g W1 X2 Atl 18 3g L3 Cal 19 5g W3 NJ 19 4g W1 X2 Flo 21 3g W1 X3 NYr 23 3g L3 Col 23 3g W3 Van 26 3g W2 Car 27 3g W2 StL 27 3g L3 Dal 27 3g W3 Pho 27 3g W2 Tor 30 4g W3 Ana 31 4g W3
January
Team - Date - #Games
Bos 1 6g W1 X2 Was 1 4g W1 X2 Nas 1 5g W4 Edm 3 5g W1 X2 Det 6 3g W1 W3****** Cal 6 3g W1 W2 SP Pho 6 3g L3 Phi 8 3g W1 W2 SP Flo 8 3g W1 W2 SP LA 8 4g Van 9 5g Ana 9 3g Col 10 3g W1 SP Chi 11 3g W1 SP
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OK now here are the stats if you faded the home teams for all the home series... So your taking Visitor +1.5 Only 2 teams so far covered in a home series.. Boston and Detroit each covered in all 3 games... So the record is 73-2 and we have 5 series still in play. So for the NYR on Oct 13 you see they won their 1st game by W1 and X2 means they did not cover on their second game... Boston and Detroit series are marked with *******
October
Team - Date - #Games
Pit 11 4g W4 Ott 11 4g W2 Flo 11 3g W3 TB 11 5g L5 Cal 11 3g L3 LA 12 4g W2 NYr 13 3g W1 X2 Atl 14 3g L3 Mon 15 5g W2 Ana 15 3g W2 StL 16 7g W1 X2 Nas 18 3g W1 X2 Chi 19 3g W1 X3 NYi 23 3g L3 Min 23 3g L3 Pho 23 4g W3 Buf 27 3g W3 LA 27 7g W6 NJ 29 4g W2 Ana 29 3g L3
November
Team - Date - #Games
Bos 1 3g W1 W3***** Van 2 6g W2 Chi 3 5g W1 X3 SJ 4 3g W1 X2 Ana 5 6g W1 X2 Col 5 4g W3 Was 6 3g W2 Car 7 3g L3 Pit 13 3g W2 NYr 15 3g L3 NJ 15 3g W2 Car 16 4g W3 Tor 17 3g L3 TB 18 4g W2 Ott 20 3g W2 Min 20 5g W5 Buf 21 4g L4 Flo 24 3g L3 Pho 28 4g W2 Mon 29 7g W3 Car 30 4g W4
December
Team - Date - #Games
Det 1 4g L4 Min 1 4g W2 SJ 2 5g W1 X2 Ott 3 3g W1 X2 StL 5 3g W3 Dal 5 3g W3 Col 7 3g W2 Phi 9 4g W3 NJ 10 3g W1 X3 Edm 11 3g W2 LA 11 4g W1 X3 Bos 13 3g W1 W3****** Van 14 4g W1 X3 Det 15 4g W2 Mon 18 3g W1 X2 Atl 18 3g L3 Cal 19 5g W3 NJ 19 4g W1 X2 Flo 21 3g W1 X3 NYr 23 3g L3 Col 23 3g W3 Van 26 3g W2 Car 27 3g W2 StL 27 3g L3 Dal 27 3g W3 Pho 27 3g W2 Tor 30 4g W3 Ana 31 4g W3
January
Team - Date - #Games
Bos 1 6g W1 X2 Was 1 4g W1 X2 Nas 1 5g W4 Edm 3 5g W1 X2 Det 6 3g W1 W3****** Cal 6 3g W1 W2 SP Pho 6 3g L3 Phi 8 3g W1 W2 SP Flo 8 3g W1 W2 SP LA 8 4g Van 9 5g Ana 9 3g Col 10 3g W1 SP Chi 11 3g W1 SP
Thx for sharing this info SRTZEE....interesting, especially if you refine and incorporate a "no play" against the top 5 home teams (based on AS break season stats.
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Thx for sharing this info SRTZEE....interesting, especially if you refine and incorporate a "no play" against the top 5 home teams (based on AS break season stats.
Even a 15 unit loss for those 2 losses would be about -30 units...against +73 units! No system can be expected to be perfect but a system that can pull off a 73-2 record is worth it as you'll end up around +40 units and even a reasonable $300 per unit would be a nice chunk of change at $12,000 and you can choose to get off the system at any time. I also would tweak this to not chase more than 3 games to help limit the amount at risk and would also remove the top 10 home teams from consideration. This would lower the 73 win total but it would also greatly reduce the risk of losing a 3 game chase. Would even consider hitting the worst teams like OTT or NYI with a multi unit bet which could make the chase large enough that you'd have to play with multiple books to lay enough dough on the team you are backing...just a few thoughts.
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Even a 15 unit loss for those 2 losses would be about -30 units...against +73 units! No system can be expected to be perfect but a system that can pull off a 73-2 record is worth it as you'll end up around +40 units and even a reasonable $300 per unit would be a nice chunk of change at $12,000 and you can choose to get off the system at any time. I also would tweak this to not chase more than 3 games to help limit the amount at risk and would also remove the top 10 home teams from consideration. This would lower the 73 win total but it would also greatly reduce the risk of losing a 3 game chase. Would even consider hitting the worst teams like OTT or NYI with a multi unit bet which could make the chase large enough that you'd have to play with multiple books to lay enough dough on the team you are backing...just a few thoughts.
Even a 15 unit loss for those 2 losses would be about -30 units...against +73 units! No system can be expected to be perfect but a system that can pull off a 73-2 record is worth it as you'll end up around +40 units and even a reasonable $300 per unit would be a nice chunk of change at $12,000 and you can choose to get off the system at any time. I also would tweak this to not chase more than 3 games to help limit the amount at risk and would also remove the top 10 home teams from consideration. This would lower the 73 win total but it would also greatly reduce the risk of losing a 3 game chase. Would even consider hitting the worst teams like OTT or NYI with a multi unit bet which could make the chase large enough that you'd have to play with multiple books to lay enough dough on the team you are backing...just a few thoughts.
The filters you mentioned would eliminate the two losses, as Boston, and Detroit would be in the top 10. Then again, Boston wasn't all that good last year, so maybe not.
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Quote Originally Posted by brad4498:
Even a 15 unit loss for those 2 losses would be about -30 units...against +73 units! No system can be expected to be perfect but a system that can pull off a 73-2 record is worth it as you'll end up around +40 units and even a reasonable $300 per unit would be a nice chunk of change at $12,000 and you can choose to get off the system at any time. I also would tweak this to not chase more than 3 games to help limit the amount at risk and would also remove the top 10 home teams from consideration. This would lower the 73 win total but it would also greatly reduce the risk of losing a 3 game chase. Would even consider hitting the worst teams like OTT or NYI with a multi unit bet which could make the chase large enough that you'd have to play with multiple books to lay enough dough on the team you are backing...just a few thoughts.
The filters you mentioned would eliminate the two losses, as Boston, and Detroit would be in the top 10. Then again, Boston wasn't all that good last year, so maybe not.
Decided to backtest this for the 07-08 season. Chased only the first three games of every series, fading the home team, taking the visitor +1 1/2. Final record was 154-4. One of those loses would have been avoided had we chased for a fourth game.
home team gm 1 gm 2 gm 3
WAS -155 -345 -310
BUF +100 +120 -125
PHI -145 -190 -185
VAN -200 -145 -190
I entered in the ml for all the failed chases if anyone wanted to figure the units lost. Great record!
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Decided to backtest this for the 07-08 season. Chased only the first three games of every series, fading the home team, taking the visitor +1 1/2. Final record was 154-4. One of those loses would have been avoided had we chased for a fourth game.
home team gm 1 gm 2 gm 3
WAS -155 -345 -310
BUF +100 +120 -125
PHI -145 -190 -185
VAN -200 -145 -190
I entered in the ml for all the failed chases if anyone wanted to figure the units lost. Great record!
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