Need help in regards to my logic of taking favorites

Hello everyone,

 

First of all I would like to start by saying this is a serious post by me even if it may not sound serious. I was wondering if anyone could help me correct my way of thinking about taking favorites. Basically I always feel like the higher the favorite, the higher disadvantage you are at. My way of thinking is based on a number line and the amount of possible outcomes with each outcome the number of points that either team wins by.

 

So basically, 0 is in the the middle (a tie for say...NFL) then the numberline goes both ways to lets say...80 for football. So while unrealstic we'll say that either team can in theory win by 80. So on my imaginary numberline, either team can win by 80 making a total of 161 (counting 0) possible outcomes. If you have a favorite, say  -20.5 on my numberline, that makes a total of 59 favorable outcomes for the favorite and 100 favorable outcomes for the underdog.

 

My way of thinking started on a much smaller scale after seeing teams win but not cover or having double digit dogs win SU against me:

 

Favorite possible favorable outcomes:

Needs to win by "x" amount of points

 

Dog possible favorate

Can win SU

Can lose but can still cover

 

Can someone point out any flaws in my way of thinking and my attitudes during games, because I find that this train of thought affects my willingness to take favorites, which may hurt my strategy.