BECAUSE THE NOT SO SMART PUBLIC PLAYS FAVORITES 75% OF THE TIME NBA LINES ARE PADDED . THE MORE " PUBLIC" THE TEAM THE MORE THE LINE IS PADDED.THEY ADD AS MANY AS 4 POINTS TO THE TRUE VALUE OF THE LINE FROM THEIR ACTUARY OF HOW WELL A GIVEN TEAM IS EXPECTED TO DO. SMART PLAYERS WHO CAN FIGURE TRUE LINES MAKE MONEY ON THESE PHONY LINES. I KNOW HOW TO FIGURE THOSE LINES AND IT IS FAR MORE SIMPLE THEN I WOULD HAVE IMAGINED. THOUGH A LOT OF DATA IS COMPUTED BY LINES MAKERS IT USUALLY HAS LITTLE EFFECT ON THE ORIGINAL DATA.
I WILL BE GIVING OUT PROPER LINES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE ACTUAL LINE IS 3 OR MORE POINTS DIFFERENCE FROM THE PROPER LINE THE GAME BECOMES A VALUE PLAY. SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN 6 GAMES THIS EARLY SEASON ,WHICH IS FAR MORE THAN NORMAL. ALL HAVE COVERED. I WOULD HAVE EXPECTED IT TO BE 4-2 BUT I WILL TAKE THE GOOD STREAK. FROM TIME TO TIME I WILL POST CLUES ON HOW TO FIGURE A PROPER LINE. I CAN PREDICT SAFELY WHAT THE VEGAS LINE WILL BE WIHIN 1 POINT ON MOST GAMES. I HOPE ANYBODY READING THIS WILL USE THEIR HEAD AND AS A BASIC RULE STAY AWAY FROM PUBLIC TEAMS. THEY ARE SUCKER PLAYS IN THE LONG RUN.
OCT 28 NO PLAYS
OCT 29 ATL +5 1/2 ACTUAL LINE + 8 1/2 WIN
NY -6 -2 1/2 WIN
IND +7 1/2 +10 1/2 WIN
SAC +2 +6 WIN
DEN +4 +8 WIN
OCT 30
HOUSTON +1 +4 WIN
OCT 31
PORTLAND -1 1/2 +1 1/2
GOLDN ST +3 +7 1/2
SAC +1 +6
3 PLAYS AT THIS POSTING FOR TONIGHTS GAMES. THERE ARE AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF PLAYS EARLY IN THE SEASON. SO FAR WE ARE 6-0. UNIT PLAY IS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENCE IN SPREAD LINE. IF LINE IS OFF3 THEN IT IS A 3 UNIT PLAY. IF 4 IT IS A 4 UNIT PLAY. IF 5 OR MORE IT IS A 5 UNIT PLAY BUT NOT MORE THAN THAT. ENJOY THE PLAYS . SO FAR IT IS 19-0. ALL YEARS HAVE BEEN 100+ UNITS AHEAD .
THE BEST TO YOU
PROF K
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
BECAUSE THE NOT SO SMART PUBLIC PLAYS FAVORITES 75% OF THE TIME NBA LINES ARE PADDED . THE MORE " PUBLIC" THE TEAM THE MORE THE LINE IS PADDED.THEY ADD AS MANY AS 4 POINTS TO THE TRUE VALUE OF THE LINE FROM THEIR ACTUARY OF HOW WELL A GIVEN TEAM IS EXPECTED TO DO. SMART PLAYERS WHO CAN FIGURE TRUE LINES MAKE MONEY ON THESE PHONY LINES. I KNOW HOW TO FIGURE THOSE LINES AND IT IS FAR MORE SIMPLE THEN I WOULD HAVE IMAGINED. THOUGH A LOT OF DATA IS COMPUTED BY LINES MAKERS IT USUALLY HAS LITTLE EFFECT ON THE ORIGINAL DATA.
I WILL BE GIVING OUT PROPER LINES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE ACTUAL LINE IS 3 OR MORE POINTS DIFFERENCE FROM THE PROPER LINE THE GAME BECOMES A VALUE PLAY. SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN 6 GAMES THIS EARLY SEASON ,WHICH IS FAR MORE THAN NORMAL. ALL HAVE COVERED. I WOULD HAVE EXPECTED IT TO BE 4-2 BUT I WILL TAKE THE GOOD STREAK. FROM TIME TO TIME I WILL POST CLUES ON HOW TO FIGURE A PROPER LINE. I CAN PREDICT SAFELY WHAT THE VEGAS LINE WILL BE WIHIN 1 POINT ON MOST GAMES. I HOPE ANYBODY READING THIS WILL USE THEIR HEAD AND AS A BASIC RULE STAY AWAY FROM PUBLIC TEAMS. THEY ARE SUCKER PLAYS IN THE LONG RUN.
OCT 28 NO PLAYS
OCT 29 ATL +5 1/2 ACTUAL LINE + 8 1/2 WIN
NY -6 -2 1/2 WIN
IND +7 1/2 +10 1/2 WIN
SAC +2 +6 WIN
DEN +4 +8 WIN
OCT 30
HOUSTON +1 +4 WIN
OCT 31
PORTLAND -1 1/2 +1 1/2
GOLDN ST +3 +7 1/2
SAC +1 +6
3 PLAYS AT THIS POSTING FOR TONIGHTS GAMES. THERE ARE AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF PLAYS EARLY IN THE SEASON. SO FAR WE ARE 6-0. UNIT PLAY IS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENCE IN SPREAD LINE. IF LINE IS OFF3 THEN IT IS A 3 UNIT PLAY. IF 4 IT IS A 4 UNIT PLAY. IF 5 OR MORE IT IS A 5 UNIT PLAY BUT NOT MORE THAN THAT. ENJOY THE PLAYS . SO FAR IT IS 19-0. ALL YEARS HAVE BEEN 100+ UNITS AHEAD .
BONUS SACREMENTO THIS IS MY FIRST PLAY OF THE YEAR INVOVING MY OTHER METHODS. IT IS AN 8 UNIT PLAY
I NEED TO GIVE TEAMS THAT RE ALMOST PLAYS SINCE THE LINE OFTEN MOVES IN FAVOR OF THE FAVORITE. IF MEMPHIS MOVES TO + 9 1/2 IT IS A PLAY.
YESTERDAY ONE GAME MOVED JUST ENOUGH TO BE A PLAY., WHICH WAS MEMPHIS vs ORLANDO
PORTLAND AND GOLDEN STATE WERE WINNERS , BOTH WINNING STRAIGHT UP.SAC. LOST .YESTERDAY WE WERE 9-5 .. WHEN A GAME IS OFF BY LETS SAY 4 1/2 UNITS I REAT IT LIKE A 5 UNIT PLAY. OF THE 3 PLAYS THERE WERE TWO 5 UNIT PLAYS AND PORTLAND AT+2 TURNED TO A 4 UNIT PLAY.
TOTAL UNIT WINS THRU OCT 31 28 -5
8WINS 1 LOSE
0
PLAYS FOR NOV 1
WASH +10 1/2 SHOULD BE 6 1/2
GOLDEN ST +5 1/2 SHOULD BE +1 1/2
BONUS SACREMENTO THIS IS MY FIRST PLAY OF THE YEAR INVOVING MY OTHER METHODS. IT IS AN 8 UNIT PLAY
I NEED TO GIVE TEAMS THAT RE ALMOST PLAYS SINCE THE LINE OFTEN MOVES IN FAVOR OF THE FAVORITE. IF MEMPHIS MOVES TO + 9 1/2 IT IS A PLAY.
YESTERDAY ONE GAME MOVED JUST ENOUGH TO BE A PLAY., WHICH WAS MEMPHIS vs ORLANDO
PORTLAND AND GOLDEN STATE WERE WINNERS , BOTH WINNING STRAIGHT UP.SAC. LOST .YESTERDAY WE WERE 9-5 .. WHEN A GAME IS OFF BY LETS SAY 4 1/2 UNITS I REAT IT LIKE A 5 UNIT PLAY. OF THE 3 PLAYS THERE WERE TWO 5 UNIT PLAYS AND PORTLAND AT+2 TURNED TO A 4 UNIT PLAY.
THAT I WILL KEEP AS A SECRET. IT IS BEST THAT I DO NOT GIVE TO MUCH INFO. HERE IS WHY. IN THE 70'S I WROTE ARTICLES IN A GAMBLING MAG. ONE OF THE ARTICLES WAS THAT HOME DOGS WERE GOOD PLAYS IN THE NFL. LINE MAKERS SHADED PLAYS BY AS MANY AS 3 -4 POINTS ON FAVORITES I THOSE DAYS. AFTER THE ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN THE PUBLIC STARTED PLAYING HOME DOGS MORE AND MORE OFTEN. AS MORE AND MORE MONEY WENT ON THEM, THE LINE MAKERS STARTED GIVING OUT MORE "HONEST" SPREADS. THE EDGE WAS ALL BUT LOST. I KNEW ONE OF THE GEEKS WHO DID THE MATH ESTABLISHING THE LINE. THE BASIS FOR DOING SO IS RATHER SIMPLE. BACK IN THOSE DAYS THEY USED ANOTHER 7 OR 8 MODELS AND MATH FORMULAS BUT IT ALMOST NEVER CHANGED THE SPREAD VERY MUCH EXCEPT FOR 1 THING.!!!BETTORS PLAYED THE FAVORITE ABOUT 70% OF THE TIME. PUBLIC TEAMS SUCH AS THE COWBOYS WERE PLAYED 80% OF THE TIME. THE BETTING LINE WAS SHADED ACCORDINGLY. IT STILL IS TODAY. THE PUBLIC STILL PLAYS FAVORITES OVERWHELMINGLY AND VEGAS STILL SHADES GAMES. I THINK THE PUBLIC LOSES FAR MORE THAN THE 10% JUICE. WHAT KEEPS THE LINES SOMEWHAT HONEST IS THE SMART MONEY FINDS VALUE ON MANY TEAMS THAT THE PUBLIC PAYS LITTLE ATTENTION . I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND MY REASONING
PROF K
0
THAT I WILL KEEP AS A SECRET. IT IS BEST THAT I DO NOT GIVE TO MUCH INFO. HERE IS WHY. IN THE 70'S I WROTE ARTICLES IN A GAMBLING MAG. ONE OF THE ARTICLES WAS THAT HOME DOGS WERE GOOD PLAYS IN THE NFL. LINE MAKERS SHADED PLAYS BY AS MANY AS 3 -4 POINTS ON FAVORITES I THOSE DAYS. AFTER THE ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN THE PUBLIC STARTED PLAYING HOME DOGS MORE AND MORE OFTEN. AS MORE AND MORE MONEY WENT ON THEM, THE LINE MAKERS STARTED GIVING OUT MORE "HONEST" SPREADS. THE EDGE WAS ALL BUT LOST. I KNEW ONE OF THE GEEKS WHO DID THE MATH ESTABLISHING THE LINE. THE BASIS FOR DOING SO IS RATHER SIMPLE. BACK IN THOSE DAYS THEY USED ANOTHER 7 OR 8 MODELS AND MATH FORMULAS BUT IT ALMOST NEVER CHANGED THE SPREAD VERY MUCH EXCEPT FOR 1 THING.!!!BETTORS PLAYED THE FAVORITE ABOUT 70% OF THE TIME. PUBLIC TEAMS SUCH AS THE COWBOYS WERE PLAYED 80% OF THE TIME. THE BETTING LINE WAS SHADED ACCORDINGLY. IT STILL IS TODAY. THE PUBLIC STILL PLAYS FAVORITES OVERWHELMINGLY AND VEGAS STILL SHADES GAMES. I THINK THE PUBLIC LOSES FAR MORE THAN THE 10% JUICE. WHAT KEEPS THE LINES SOMEWHAT HONEST IS THE SMART MONEY FINDS VALUE ON MANY TEAMS THAT THE PUBLIC PAYS LITTLE ATTENTION . I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND MY REASONING
OF COURSE I KNOW THAT. WHAT I DO IS WHOLELY MECHANICAL. WHAT MATTERS IS WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. THIS WORKS ALL YEAR. I AM NOT TRYING TO SELL ANYTHING SO IT DOES NOT MATTER. IF I WERE TO TEACH THIS MTHOD ANYBODY WOULD HAVE COME UP WITH THE SAME PLAYS. I DO NOT PROMOE UNFOUNDED WINNERS. IF YOU SAW MY ARTICLE ABOUT MY FOOTBALL PICKS WHICH I GAVE OUT NFL GAMES AND 2 COLLEGE (THEY BOTH WON) GAMES I ALSO SAID THAT I HAD A LOSING WEEK OVERALL IN COLLEGE THOUGH I GAVE OUT NO GAMES. I TELL IT AS IT IS. WHAT I AM DOING WILL EVOLVE SOMEWHAT. I USE THE LINES THAT COVERS STARTS WITH EARLY ON.THOSE LINES CAN CHANGE AND USUALLY IN MY FAVOR. I WILL GIVE OUT SPREADS WHEN THEY ARE AS MUCH AS 2 POINTS OFF. THE LINE CAN CHANGE MAKING SOME GAMES PLAYS. I ALSO USE MATCHBOOK BECAUSE THE ORIGINAL LINE IS ALWAYS AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT. IN BASKETBALL USING THE METHOD I AM GIVING OUT I FIND IT BEST TO WAIT. THE LINE USUALLY MOVES IN MY FAVOR. YESTERDAY(OCT31) PORTLAND MOVED TO +2 AND MEMPHIS MOVED 1/2 POINT QUALIFING THEM AS A PLAY. I DID NOT INCLUDE THIS AS A PLAY THOUGH I PLAYED IT MYSELF. IN THE FUTURE I WILL GIVE OUT GAMES THAT ARE CLOSE TO PLAYS. IF THRE LINE MOVES THEN THE GAME BECOMES A LISTED PLAY.GAMES HAVE TO 3 POINTS OFF.OR MORE AS I STATED. THIS METHOD WORKS EVERY YEAR. AFTER ALL IF GAMES ARE SHADED BY 3 OR MORE POINTS IT CAN NOT HELP BUT WIN. BE CONCERNED WITH THE TOTAL SESON RESULTS. I INCLUDED THOSE FIRST GAMES BECAUSE I WANT THE WHOLE SEASON RESULTS.
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OF COURSE I KNOW THAT. WHAT I DO IS WHOLELY MECHANICAL. WHAT MATTERS IS WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. THIS WORKS ALL YEAR. I AM NOT TRYING TO SELL ANYTHING SO IT DOES NOT MATTER. IF I WERE TO TEACH THIS MTHOD ANYBODY WOULD HAVE COME UP WITH THE SAME PLAYS. I DO NOT PROMOE UNFOUNDED WINNERS. IF YOU SAW MY ARTICLE ABOUT MY FOOTBALL PICKS WHICH I GAVE OUT NFL GAMES AND 2 COLLEGE (THEY BOTH WON) GAMES I ALSO SAID THAT I HAD A LOSING WEEK OVERALL IN COLLEGE THOUGH I GAVE OUT NO GAMES. I TELL IT AS IT IS. WHAT I AM DOING WILL EVOLVE SOMEWHAT. I USE THE LINES THAT COVERS STARTS WITH EARLY ON.THOSE LINES CAN CHANGE AND USUALLY IN MY FAVOR. I WILL GIVE OUT SPREADS WHEN THEY ARE AS MUCH AS 2 POINTS OFF. THE LINE CAN CHANGE MAKING SOME GAMES PLAYS. I ALSO USE MATCHBOOK BECAUSE THE ORIGINAL LINE IS ALWAYS AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT. IN BASKETBALL USING THE METHOD I AM GIVING OUT I FIND IT BEST TO WAIT. THE LINE USUALLY MOVES IN MY FAVOR. YESTERDAY(OCT31) PORTLAND MOVED TO +2 AND MEMPHIS MOVED 1/2 POINT QUALIFING THEM AS A PLAY. I DID NOT INCLUDE THIS AS A PLAY THOUGH I PLAYED IT MYSELF. IN THE FUTURE I WILL GIVE OUT GAMES THAT ARE CLOSE TO PLAYS. IF THRE LINE MOVES THEN THE GAME BECOMES A LISTED PLAY.GAMES HAVE TO 3 POINTS OFF.OR MORE AS I STATED. THIS METHOD WORKS EVERY YEAR. AFTER ALL IF GAMES ARE SHADED BY 3 OR MORE POINTS IT CAN NOT HELP BUT WIN. BE CONCERNED WITH THE TOTAL SESON RESULTS. I INCLUDED THOSE FIRST GAMES BECAUSE I WANT THE WHOLE SEASON RESULTS.
I SHOULD BE GIVING THE LINE THAT TEAMS ARE GOOD PLAYS .I WAS 2-0 YESTERDAY ON PLAYS THAT THE LINE WAS OFF. THAT MOVES ME TO 10-1 AND 36 -5.5 MY FIRST REGULAR PLAY LOST YESTERDAY. THAT IS NOT A GOOD WAY TO START. I WILL KEEP BOTH THE REGULAR PLAYS AND GOOD LINE PLAYS SEPARETED. I AM -8.8 UNITS BEHIND ON MY REGULAR PLAYS . I HAD 2 WINNERS I AM NOT TAKING CREDIT FOR. NEW ORL WAS A PLAY AT - 3 AND OKLAHOMA WAS NOT POSTED YET. .THEY WERE A PLAY AT + 13. THEY WENT OFF AT +14 ALSO NEW ORLEANS WAS APLAY AT - 3. THEY WENT ALL THE WAY TO -2 .I NEVER THOUGHT THEY WOULD GO DOWN TO -2 FROM -4. MOST OF MY GOOD LINE PLAYS ARE UNDERDOGS AND SELDOM DO FAVORITES GO IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. I WILL LIST ALL LINES IN THE FUTURE. AGAIN I AM NOT TAKING CREDIT FOR THOSE 2 GAMES BECAUSE I DID NOT POST A VALUE LINE FOR EITHER TEAM.
SUNDAYS CARD
MILW VALUE LINE+2 LINE IS +5 1/2 IT IS A PLAY.
MINN + 1 1/2 LINE IS +2 NO PLAY
MY SPELLING AND PUNCTUATION HAS NOT BEEN GOOD. I DO THESE GAMES LATE AT NIGHT AND I AM NOT SHARP. OVERLOOK THAT . IT IS NOT THAT IMPORTANT. I WANT TO REMIND ALL VIEWERS I USE 2 LINES. I USE THE COVERS LINE AND MATCHBOOKS' LINE. SINCE THE OPENING MATCHBOOK LINE IS ALWAYS!!! AVAILABLE IT IS PERFECTLY PROPER TO USE IT WHEN IT IS FAVORABLE. THE GOOD SPREAD GAMES HAVE BEEN HOT!! DURING THE YEAR THEY WILL HAVE LOSING WEEKS, BUT NOT MANY. DO NOT GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE GOOD RESULTS. HOT AND COLD STREAKS ARE ALL PART OF COMPETING. THE IDEA IS TO HAVE A GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM AND STICK WITH IT. UNFORTUNATELY MOST VIEWERS DO NOT HAVE THE DISCIPLINE AND OR THE KNOWLEDGE ON HOW TO INVEST THEIR MONEY ON GAMES. I SUGGEST PLAYING 1/2 THE UNIT STRENGTH ON EACH GAME. A 4 UNIT GAME THUS BECOMES A 2% INVESTMENT. IF YOU HAVE $2500 FOR STARTERS TO INVEST THAT WILL GO TO A MILLION AFTER BEING + 720 UNITS. THAT MIGHT TAKE TIME BUT IT CAN BE DONE. YOU DOUBLE EVERY +72 UNITS.THE LAW OF 72 IS AN ECONOMIC TERM MEANING COMPOUND INTEREST DOUBLES AT 72%. SIMPLE INTEREST DOUBLES AT 100%.
KEEP OBSERVING MY PLAYS. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK.
THE BEST TO YOU
PROF K
0
I SHOULD BE GIVING THE LINE THAT TEAMS ARE GOOD PLAYS .I WAS 2-0 YESTERDAY ON PLAYS THAT THE LINE WAS OFF. THAT MOVES ME TO 10-1 AND 36 -5.5 MY FIRST REGULAR PLAY LOST YESTERDAY. THAT IS NOT A GOOD WAY TO START. I WILL KEEP BOTH THE REGULAR PLAYS AND GOOD LINE PLAYS SEPARETED. I AM -8.8 UNITS BEHIND ON MY REGULAR PLAYS . I HAD 2 WINNERS I AM NOT TAKING CREDIT FOR. NEW ORL WAS A PLAY AT - 3 AND OKLAHOMA WAS NOT POSTED YET. .THEY WERE A PLAY AT + 13. THEY WENT OFF AT +14 ALSO NEW ORLEANS WAS APLAY AT - 3. THEY WENT ALL THE WAY TO -2 .I NEVER THOUGHT THEY WOULD GO DOWN TO -2 FROM -4. MOST OF MY GOOD LINE PLAYS ARE UNDERDOGS AND SELDOM DO FAVORITES GO IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. I WILL LIST ALL LINES IN THE FUTURE. AGAIN I AM NOT TAKING CREDIT FOR THOSE 2 GAMES BECAUSE I DID NOT POST A VALUE LINE FOR EITHER TEAM.
SUNDAYS CARD
MILW VALUE LINE+2 LINE IS +5 1/2 IT IS A PLAY.
MINN + 1 1/2 LINE IS +2 NO PLAY
MY SPELLING AND PUNCTUATION HAS NOT BEEN GOOD. I DO THESE GAMES LATE AT NIGHT AND I AM NOT SHARP. OVERLOOK THAT . IT IS NOT THAT IMPORTANT. I WANT TO REMIND ALL VIEWERS I USE 2 LINES. I USE THE COVERS LINE AND MATCHBOOKS' LINE. SINCE THE OPENING MATCHBOOK LINE IS ALWAYS!!! AVAILABLE IT IS PERFECTLY PROPER TO USE IT WHEN IT IS FAVORABLE. THE GOOD SPREAD GAMES HAVE BEEN HOT!! DURING THE YEAR THEY WILL HAVE LOSING WEEKS, BUT NOT MANY. DO NOT GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE GOOD RESULTS. HOT AND COLD STREAKS ARE ALL PART OF COMPETING. THE IDEA IS TO HAVE A GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM AND STICK WITH IT. UNFORTUNATELY MOST VIEWERS DO NOT HAVE THE DISCIPLINE AND OR THE KNOWLEDGE ON HOW TO INVEST THEIR MONEY ON GAMES. I SUGGEST PLAYING 1/2 THE UNIT STRENGTH ON EACH GAME. A 4 UNIT GAME THUS BECOMES A 2% INVESTMENT. IF YOU HAVE $2500 FOR STARTERS TO INVEST THAT WILL GO TO A MILLION AFTER BEING + 720 UNITS. THAT MIGHT TAKE TIME BUT IT CAN BE DONE. YOU DOUBLE EVERY +72 UNITS.THE LAW OF 72 IS AN ECONOMIC TERM MEANING COMPOUND INTEREST DOUBLES AT 72%. SIMPLE INTEREST DOUBLES AT 100%.
KEEP OBSERVING MY PLAYS. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK.
I AM AT AN IMPASSE TO GIVE YOU ADVISE ON THIS SUBJECT. THOUGH I LOVE TO SHARE KNOLEDGE BOTH AS STUDENT AND TEACHER I DO NOT THINK IT WOULD BE GOOD TO DO SO. THE PROBLM IS VERY SIMPLE. THE LINEMAKERS ALWAYS ADJUST WHEN THE PUBLIC FINDS OUT. I SAY THAT WITH MIXED FEELINGS AND I AM NOT ONE TO WITHHOLD USEFUL INFORMATION PROVIDED IT HURTS NOBODY. AS FOR PLAYING PUBLIC TEAMS. THEY DO WIN BUT LINE IS OFTEN BAD, BUT NOT ALWAYS. FROM TIME TO TIME I WILL BE GIVING OUT GAMES THAT THE TEAM IS A PUBLIC TEAM BUT THE VALUE LINE IS OK. BACK IN THE 70'S WHEN I LIVED IN LAS VEGAS THE LINE WAS ETERMINED BY 8-10 FACTORS. OF THOSE FACTORS 2 OF THEM REPRESENTED 805 OF THE FINAL NUMBER. ONE OF THEM WAS HOW THE PUBLIC PLAYED GAMES. THE OTHER WAS A VERY SIMPLE BUT POWRFUL WAY OF DETERMINING THE TRUE SPREAD. FROM THAT SUCH THINGS AS INJURIES , TRAVEL, # OF RECENT GAMES , HOW TEAMS PERFORM AGAINST EACH OTHER IN THE RECENT PAST . "NEED GAMES", MOMENTUM OF LAST GAME OR TWO, AND COACHING TENDENCIES WERE SOME OTHER FACTORS. PHYSICAL STATISTICS OF COURSE WERE A HUGE FACTOR BUT BELIEVE IT OR NOT IT WAS NOT THE MAIN ONE . I DO NOT KNOW HOW THEY FIGURE SPREADS NOW DAYS, BUT I BET IT IS NOT FAR REMOVED FROM WHAT WENT ON IN THE 70'S. ONE THING THAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE THEN IS THE GAMES ARE SHADED ABOUT ANOTHER POINT OR 2 IN THE NBA MAKING IT A PARADISE FOR SMART PLAYERS. BY THE WAY I DOUBT IF EVEN MOST SMART PLAYERS KNOW THE MECHANICS OF CREATING A SPREAD. OF COURSE; THEY DO NOT HAVE TO, THEY SIMPLY RESPOND TO A GOOD SPREAD WHE THEY SEE IT.IN THE NBA GOOD SPREADS ARE MORE OFTEN TO BE FOUND WITH UNDERDOGS.
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I AM AT AN IMPASSE TO GIVE YOU ADVISE ON THIS SUBJECT. THOUGH I LOVE TO SHARE KNOLEDGE BOTH AS STUDENT AND TEACHER I DO NOT THINK IT WOULD BE GOOD TO DO SO. THE PROBLM IS VERY SIMPLE. THE LINEMAKERS ALWAYS ADJUST WHEN THE PUBLIC FINDS OUT. I SAY THAT WITH MIXED FEELINGS AND I AM NOT ONE TO WITHHOLD USEFUL INFORMATION PROVIDED IT HURTS NOBODY. AS FOR PLAYING PUBLIC TEAMS. THEY DO WIN BUT LINE IS OFTEN BAD, BUT NOT ALWAYS. FROM TIME TO TIME I WILL BE GIVING OUT GAMES THAT THE TEAM IS A PUBLIC TEAM BUT THE VALUE LINE IS OK. BACK IN THE 70'S WHEN I LIVED IN LAS VEGAS THE LINE WAS ETERMINED BY 8-10 FACTORS. OF THOSE FACTORS 2 OF THEM REPRESENTED 805 OF THE FINAL NUMBER. ONE OF THEM WAS HOW THE PUBLIC PLAYED GAMES. THE OTHER WAS A VERY SIMPLE BUT POWRFUL WAY OF DETERMINING THE TRUE SPREAD. FROM THAT SUCH THINGS AS INJURIES , TRAVEL, # OF RECENT GAMES , HOW TEAMS PERFORM AGAINST EACH OTHER IN THE RECENT PAST . "NEED GAMES", MOMENTUM OF LAST GAME OR TWO, AND COACHING TENDENCIES WERE SOME OTHER FACTORS. PHYSICAL STATISTICS OF COURSE WERE A HUGE FACTOR BUT BELIEVE IT OR NOT IT WAS NOT THE MAIN ONE . I DO NOT KNOW HOW THEY FIGURE SPREADS NOW DAYS, BUT I BET IT IS NOT FAR REMOVED FROM WHAT WENT ON IN THE 70'S. ONE THING THAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE THEN IS THE GAMES ARE SHADED ABOUT ANOTHER POINT OR 2 IN THE NBA MAKING IT A PARADISE FOR SMART PLAYERS. BY THE WAY I DOUBT IF EVEN MOST SMART PLAYERS KNOW THE MECHANICS OF CREATING A SPREAD. OF COURSE; THEY DO NOT HAVE TO, THEY SIMPLY RESPOND TO A GOOD SPREAD WHE THEY SEE IT.IN THE NBA GOOD SPREADS ARE MORE OFTEN TO BE FOUND WITH UNDERDOGS.
I am assuming I won the Milw -NY game at this posting. I am 11-1 so far. 40 units vs - 5.5. or 34.5 units to the good. Yesterday I talked to a professional handicapper who has a service. He has inside information what smart money and what public money has been played. Get a load of this. Public money has been winning only 39% of all plays in football !!!! Joe Average is losing about a quarter for each dollar he bets. I am sure the same holds true in basketball. Their is a lot of soft money out there. Smart money is often big money coming from a few sources. They take the lions share. The linemakers and bookies won 5% this week according to my friend. The bookies can only shade games so much because the smart money nullifies any house advantage that Joe Average gives them. The info I have been giving you is worth much. Observe what I am doing and if I keep it up you have a decision to make. Here are the opening lines for Mon , Nov 3.Favorites are posted first.
actual line - proper line
Det- Char -6 1/2 -2 1/2
Orl-Chic -7 -7 1/2
Phil-Sacr -12 -7
GS-Memp -2 1/2 -1
Dal-Cleve -2 1/2 -5 1/2
Utah Lac ?not up -4
Sacr and Dallas are plays for me.I am passing on Detroit because they show positive features.
Also Golden State is a play using my regular method.They are a 8 unit play .
To summarize
Sacr and Dallas show good value
I am passing on Char because Detroit is showing good features
Golden State is a regular play(8 units)
Keep in mind spreads can change thus making some games plays. Since lines are available for the playable games we already include them.
The best to you
Prof k
0
I am assuming I won the Milw -NY game at this posting. I am 11-1 so far. 40 units vs - 5.5. or 34.5 units to the good. Yesterday I talked to a professional handicapper who has a service. He has inside information what smart money and what public money has been played. Get a load of this. Public money has been winning only 39% of all plays in football !!!! Joe Average is losing about a quarter for each dollar he bets. I am sure the same holds true in basketball. Their is a lot of soft money out there. Smart money is often big money coming from a few sources. They take the lions share. The linemakers and bookies won 5% this week according to my friend. The bookies can only shade games so much because the smart money nullifies any house advantage that Joe Average gives them. The info I have been giving you is worth much. Observe what I am doing and if I keep it up you have a decision to make. Here are the opening lines for Mon , Nov 3.Favorites are posted first.
actual line - proper line
Det- Char -6 1/2 -2 1/2
Orl-Chic -7 -7 1/2
Phil-Sacr -12 -7
GS-Memp -2 1/2 -1
Dal-Cleve -2 1/2 -5 1/2
Utah Lac ?not up -4
Sacr and Dallas are plays for me.I am passing on Detroit because they show positive features.
Also Golden State is a play using my regular method.They are a 8 unit play .
To summarize
Sacr and Dallas show good value
I am passing on Char because Detroit is showing good features
Golden State is a regular play(8 units)
Keep in mind spreads can change thus making some games plays. Since lines are available for the playable games we already include them.
I enjoy your posts (especially without the caps). Although you really dont give us your strategies, I still feel that you are giving us a good starting point. Ill definitely keep up with your posts and insight.
0
Professor,
I enjoy your posts (especially without the caps). Although you really dont give us your strategies, I still feel that you are giving us a good starting point. Ill definitely keep up with your posts and insight.
I am assuming I won the Milw -NY game at this posting. I am 11-1 so far. 40 units vs - 5.5. or 34.5 units to the good. Yesterday I talked to a professional handicapper who has a service. He has inside information what smart money and what public money has been played. Get a load of this. Public money has been winning only 39% of all plays in football !!!! Joe Average is losing about a quarter for each dollar he bets. I am sure the same holds true in basketball. Their is a lot of soft money out there. Smart money is often big money coming from a few sources. They take the lions share. The linemakers and bookies won 5% this week according to my friend. The bookies can only shade games so much because the smart money nullifies any house advantage that Joe Average gives them. The info I have been giving you is worth much. Observe what I am doing and if I keep it up you have a decision to make. Here are the opening lines for Mon , Nov 3.Favorites are posted first.
actual line - proper line
Det- Char -6 1/2 -2 1/2
Orl-Chic -7 -7 1/2
Phil-Sacr -12 -7
GS-Memp -2 1/2 -1
Dal-Cleve -2 1/2 -5 1/2
Utah Lac ?not up -4
Sacr and Dallas are plays for me.I am passing on Detroit because they show positive features.
Also Golden State is a play using my regular method.They are a 8 unit play .
To summarize
Sacr and Dallas show good value
I am passing on Char because Detroit is showing good features
Golden State is a regular play(8 units)
Keep in mind spreads can change thus making some games plays. Since lines are available for the playable games we already include them.
The best to you
Prof k
do you do the same for NFL?
0
Quote Originally Posted by professorkopak:
I am assuming I won the Milw -NY game at this posting. I am 11-1 so far. 40 units vs - 5.5. or 34.5 units to the good. Yesterday I talked to a professional handicapper who has a service. He has inside information what smart money and what public money has been played. Get a load of this. Public money has been winning only 39% of all plays in football !!!! Joe Average is losing about a quarter for each dollar he bets. I am sure the same holds true in basketball. Their is a lot of soft money out there. Smart money is often big money coming from a few sources. They take the lions share. The linemakers and bookies won 5% this week according to my friend. The bookies can only shade games so much because the smart money nullifies any house advantage that Joe Average gives them. The info I have been giving you is worth much. Observe what I am doing and if I keep it up you have a decision to make. Here are the opening lines for Mon , Nov 3.Favorites are posted first.
actual line - proper line
Det- Char -6 1/2 -2 1/2
Orl-Chic -7 -7 1/2
Phil-Sacr -12 -7
GS-Memp -2 1/2 -1
Dal-Cleve -2 1/2 -5 1/2
Utah Lac ?not up -4
Sacr and Dallas are plays for me.I am passing on Detroit because they show positive features.
Also Golden State is a play using my regular method.They are a 8 unit play .
To summarize
Sacr and Dallas show good value
I am passing on Char because Detroit is showing good features
Golden State is a regular play(8 units)
Keep in mind spreads can change thus making some games plays. Since lines are available for the playable games we already include them.
I will give you hints on what is going on. As I said before he linemakers adjust too; thus we all lose are edge if I reveal their methods. One of my friends who has an information betting sight just told me public money in the NFL has lost 61% of all plays. The public is 26-41 -1. Smart money was winning at a 60% clip though on far fewer games.The public is losing 25% of their money on average, per play. Playing live dogs as a whole but not always is the way to go. If you notice most of my value line plays are dogs. They are teams the public has no interest . 70% of all money gos on favorites. Why do you think linemakers shade the plays .Favorites are good plays when they are hot. Look at the last 2 games and if they have beaten the spread in both by 4 or more they are good plays unless they are meeting another hot team or a team that has been covering the spread with regularity lately.(7of last 10) or (4 of the last 5) or ( 2 of the last 2) I will be giving out games on a regular basis for a while. If past history is the barometer for the future then we should do well.
the best to you
Prof K
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I will give you hints on what is going on. As I said before he linemakers adjust too; thus we all lose are edge if I reveal their methods. One of my friends who has an information betting sight just told me public money in the NFL has lost 61% of all plays. The public is 26-41 -1. Smart money was winning at a 60% clip though on far fewer games.The public is losing 25% of their money on average, per play. Playing live dogs as a whole but not always is the way to go. If you notice most of my value line plays are dogs. They are teams the public has no interest . 70% of all money gos on favorites. Why do you think linemakers shade the plays .Favorites are good plays when they are hot. Look at the last 2 games and if they have beaten the spread in both by 4 or more they are good plays unless they are meeting another hot team or a team that has been covering the spread with regularity lately.(7of last 10) or (4 of the last 5) or ( 2 of the last 2) I will be giving out games on a regular basis for a while. If past history is the barometer for the future then we should do well.
I made a brutal mistake on the Sacr- Phil game. Covers had not posted the last game that Sacr had played. Because Sacr is what I call a cold team the value line moves to +11 1/2. Also Phil becomes a play. Teams perform like the stock market. There are certain indicators that dictate how a team is likely to play. Sacr is likely to lose tonight by double figures. they would average about +16 1/2. I will have many of these plays this year. Past performances suggest it will win 60%or more of all games. My computer and my electricity have been down tue to somebody hitting a power line so I am late posting the new info. i need to be careful in the future. To handicap a game when I did not have data from the last game is a sure way to lose.
Prof k
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update
I made a brutal mistake on the Sacr- Phil game. Covers had not posted the last game that Sacr had played. Because Sacr is what I call a cold team the value line moves to +11 1/2. Also Phil becomes a play. Teams perform like the stock market. There are certain indicators that dictate how a team is likely to play. Sacr is likely to lose tonight by double figures. they would average about +16 1/2. I will have many of these plays this year. Past performances suggest it will win 60%or more of all games. My computer and my electricity have been down tue to somebody hitting a power line so I am late posting the new info. i need to be careful in the future. To handicap a game when I did not have data from the last game is a sure way to lose.
Sounds like you have no clue what you are doing. Your explanations are all over the place and after Sac loses you tell us someone hit a power poll outside your house so now it's not a play . Then sac goes from a +7 to a +17 on your system. You type in all caps until we complain about it and you refuse to give out your system. Very weak.
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Sounds like you have no clue what you are doing. Your explanations are all over the place and after Sac loses you tell us someone hit a power poll outside your house so now it's not a play . Then sac goes from a +7 to a +17 on your system. You type in all caps until we complain about it and you refuse to give out your system. Very weak.
I GAVE OUT MY PLAYS ALREADY BUT I HAVE 1 REVISION.
DETROIT IS A 10 UNIT PLAY
GOLDEN ST IS A 8 UNIT PLAY
UTAH IS A 5 UNIT PLAY
SACR IS A 4UNIT PLAY
HOUSTON IS REVISED TO A NON PLAY
THE LINEMAKERS ADDED 3 1/2 TO BOSTON 2 TO HOUSTON AND CLEVELAND. I BELIEVE ONE OF THE OFF SHORE PLACES POSTS AMOUNTS BEING PLAYED BY THEIR CUSTOMERS. IF I AM NOT MISTAKEN IT WAS CARIB. THE LAST TIME I LOOKED AT THAT SITE 70% OF ALL MONEY WAS GOING ON FAVORITES. WHY DO YOU THINK THEY WERE SHOWING THE MONEY? IT WAS TO GET THE NAIVE PUBLIC TO BELIEVE THAT THOSE TEAMS WERE THE TEAMS TO PLAY.OF COURSE PUBLIC MONEY IS FOOLS MONEY. ONE SITE THAT SELLS THEIR PLAYS GIVES OUT TEAMS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF SMART MONEY. ACCORDING TO WHAT THEY TOLD ME THE PUBLIC WAS WINNING ONLY 38% 0F ALL NFL GAMES. THIS SERVICE HITS ABOUT 60% OF ALL GAMES YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT. THOUGH I DO NOT DO ANYTHING WITH THEM I KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THEM. I DO NOT CARE WHAT ANYBODY ELSE IS DOING I ONLY CARE ABOUT WHAT I AM DOING.
WE HAD A NICE DAY WEDNESDAY, AS ALL THREE BIG PLAYS WON. THURS THERE WERE NO PLAYS. I ORIGINALLY WAS GOING TO GIVE OUT MY PLAYS IN2 FORMATS. I DECIDED TO DO IT THIS WAY INSTEAD AND MERGE THE 2. AFTER SAYING I WOULD HANDICAP IN THE MORNNG AND NOT LATE AT NIGHT I DID IT AGAIN. BECAUSE HOUSTON WAS STILL PLAYING WHEN I HANDICAPPED I USED THE PREVIOUS GAMES INFO. I HAVE SO MANY IRONS IN THE FIRE I AM SPREADING MYSELF TO THIN. I DID THAT WITH A GAME LAST WEEK. THE TEAM I LIKED ORIGINALLY WOULD HAVE BEEN ON THE COLD LIST HAD I USED THE INFO FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS LIST. I LATER REVISED THE PLAY. TODAY I REVISED THE HOUSTON PLAY EARLY ON. ALSO EVERYONE SHOULD BE OBSERVING MY PLAYS UNTIL THERE IS A TRACK RECORD. ANYBODY WANT TO BET ME HOW IT WILL TURN OUT? I WILL HAVE SOME LOSING DAYS AND SOME VERY BAD DAYS BUT I SHOULD HAVE TWICE AS MANY WINNING DAYS.
I WILL BE WRITING A PIECE ABOUT INVESTORS vs GAMBLERS BY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE INFORMATIVE. THERE ARE FEW INVESTORS OUT THERE AND MANY GAMBLERS. ONLY ABOUT 3% OF ALL PLAYERS MAKE MONEY IN THE LONG RUN.MOST PEOPLE HAVE NO CLUE AS TO WHAT DETERMINES GOOD VALUE UT CONTINUE TO PLAY GAMES USING OLD HABITS THAT HAVE LOST FOR THEM FOR YEARS.
ANYBODY WHO DOES NOT LIKE MY PLAYS AND MY LOCKED CAPS GO TO SOMEBODY ELSE. OF COURSE MY PLAYS ARE WINNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO WIN. AS FOR THE LOCKED CAPS THEY WILL STAY . I GAVE THE REASONS WHY.
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PLAYS FOR FRIDAY WITH ONE CHANGE
I GAVE OUT MY PLAYS ALREADY BUT I HAVE 1 REVISION.
DETROIT IS A 10 UNIT PLAY
GOLDEN ST IS A 8 UNIT PLAY
UTAH IS A 5 UNIT PLAY
SACR IS A 4UNIT PLAY
HOUSTON IS REVISED TO A NON PLAY
THE LINEMAKERS ADDED 3 1/2 TO BOSTON 2 TO HOUSTON AND CLEVELAND. I BELIEVE ONE OF THE OFF SHORE PLACES POSTS AMOUNTS BEING PLAYED BY THEIR CUSTOMERS. IF I AM NOT MISTAKEN IT WAS CARIB. THE LAST TIME I LOOKED AT THAT SITE 70% OF ALL MONEY WAS GOING ON FAVORITES. WHY DO YOU THINK THEY WERE SHOWING THE MONEY? IT WAS TO GET THE NAIVE PUBLIC TO BELIEVE THAT THOSE TEAMS WERE THE TEAMS TO PLAY.OF COURSE PUBLIC MONEY IS FOOLS MONEY. ONE SITE THAT SELLS THEIR PLAYS GIVES OUT TEAMS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF SMART MONEY. ACCORDING TO WHAT THEY TOLD ME THE PUBLIC WAS WINNING ONLY 38% 0F ALL NFL GAMES. THIS SERVICE HITS ABOUT 60% OF ALL GAMES YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT. THOUGH I DO NOT DO ANYTHING WITH THEM I KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THEM. I DO NOT CARE WHAT ANYBODY ELSE IS DOING I ONLY CARE ABOUT WHAT I AM DOING.
WE HAD A NICE DAY WEDNESDAY, AS ALL THREE BIG PLAYS WON. THURS THERE WERE NO PLAYS. I ORIGINALLY WAS GOING TO GIVE OUT MY PLAYS IN2 FORMATS. I DECIDED TO DO IT THIS WAY INSTEAD AND MERGE THE 2. AFTER SAYING I WOULD HANDICAP IN THE MORNNG AND NOT LATE AT NIGHT I DID IT AGAIN. BECAUSE HOUSTON WAS STILL PLAYING WHEN I HANDICAPPED I USED THE PREVIOUS GAMES INFO. I HAVE SO MANY IRONS IN THE FIRE I AM SPREADING MYSELF TO THIN. I DID THAT WITH A GAME LAST WEEK. THE TEAM I LIKED ORIGINALLY WOULD HAVE BEEN ON THE COLD LIST HAD I USED THE INFO FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS LIST. I LATER REVISED THE PLAY. TODAY I REVISED THE HOUSTON PLAY EARLY ON. ALSO EVERYONE SHOULD BE OBSERVING MY PLAYS UNTIL THERE IS A TRACK RECORD. ANYBODY WANT TO BET ME HOW IT WILL TURN OUT? I WILL HAVE SOME LOSING DAYS AND SOME VERY BAD DAYS BUT I SHOULD HAVE TWICE AS MANY WINNING DAYS.
I WILL BE WRITING A PIECE ABOUT INVESTORS vs GAMBLERS BY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE INFORMATIVE. THERE ARE FEW INVESTORS OUT THERE AND MANY GAMBLERS. ONLY ABOUT 3% OF ALL PLAYERS MAKE MONEY IN THE LONG RUN.MOST PEOPLE HAVE NO CLUE AS TO WHAT DETERMINES GOOD VALUE UT CONTINUE TO PLAY GAMES USING OLD HABITS THAT HAVE LOST FOR THEM FOR YEARS.
ANYBODY WHO DOES NOT LIKE MY PLAYS AND MY LOCKED CAPS GO TO SOMEBODY ELSE. OF COURSE MY PLAYS ARE WINNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO WIN. AS FOR THE LOCKED CAPS THEY WILL STAY . I GAVE THE REASONS WHY.
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. Then sac goes from a +7 to a +17 on your system. You type in all caps until we complain about it and you refuse to give out your system. Very weak.
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