Lesson 2

Lesson two is as simple as it looks. Many people do the exact opposite of this and lose big time. The rule is simple: NEVER BET AGAINST A STREAK. Did you know that last year in the NFL, every team except Baltimore had a three game streak (winning or losing) of some kind ATS (Against the Spread). Did you know that 20 of the 32 teams had 4 game streaks or longer? College teams are a lot more streaky than pro teams. Teams get into modes. They get red hot or ice cold. Sure there is the occasional team that will win a game, then lose a game, and work their way to a .500 season, but they are rare. Most teams run hot or cold for weeks at a time. The problem with betting against a streak is really simple. You can only win ONCE. Then the streak is over. The most famious streak is the 9 game losing streak in Bowl games by Notre Dame. If, say after game 2, you thought the Irish were bound to cover the spread, you would have lost 7 times already. Who knows when they will finally cover? When they do, you will have one win against a minimum of 7 losses. Now the rule says not to bet AGAINST a streak. This does no mean you have to wager on a streak to continue. What it means is that if a team is on a streak, winning or losing, either wager that the streak continues, or do not wager at all. Just never wager against the streak. It is a huge money maker for the books. The old "it's bound to change sooner or later" thinking always ending up changing later, much too late for you to recoupe your losses. ||peace.gif' border=0>

Clearly you have no understanding of basic applied mathematics.

Daran T. I think you are wrong, at least for the NFL. I checked my NFL data base and found that teams slightly under performed when on a streak. For example, In my data base, teams won (or lost) a game after a loss (or a win)or to start the season 2703 times. That is 2703 teams on a one game streak. A 50% expectation would have 1351.5 teams continuing the streak. the actual number was 1237 teams continuing the streak, less that 50% expected. This trend to not continue the streak was good for all streaks except for 4 game streaks becoming 5 game streaks. If anything, that statistics would suggest beting on streaks to end...and that makes some sense because the point spreads may tend to get larger on teams that are on hot and cold streaks.