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Idea for a MLB chase system

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Has anybody ever tried a 1 team chase strategy?  For example, at the beginning of the year pick a team you think will win the most games in the regular season...follow them throughout by betting them ML every game.  Double the bet on a loss, triple it on two losses in a row, etc...a sort of Labouchere system.

In theory this could be profitable except the juice might start to get high for a team with a high winning %

I'm starting to like the Yankees this season with their off-season pitching acquisitions, and they are the current favorite (oddsmakers say) to win the World Series.

Any thoughts?
 
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Posted: #2
Depends on your bankroll, and how much you want to win.  Just look at Detroit last year, were supposed to be pretty good and lost their first 7 games of the year, and they also had a couple streaks of losing 6 in a row....
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Here are the lines, they were the favs in their first 6, so if you were betting to win $100 you'd be betting big bucks after a couple games...
 
04/08/08 @ BOS L 0-5 Kenny Rogers (L) Daisuke Matsuzaka (R) L 150 U 9.5 104
04/06/08 CHW L 2-13 Mark Buehrle (L) Justin Verlander (R) L -173 O 9 123
04/05/08 CHW L 3-5 Gavin Floyd (R) Dontrelle Willis (L) L -140 U 10 -125
04/04/08 CHW L 5-8 Jose Contreras (R) Nate Robertson (L) L -141 O 9 -116
04/03/08 KC L 1-4 Zack Greinke (R) Jeremy Bonderman (R) L -182 U 8.5 -121
04/02/08 KC L 0-4 Brian Bannister (R) Kenny Rogers (L) L -171 U 9 -108
03/31/08 KC L 4-5 Gil Meche (R) Justin Verlander (R) L -208 O 8.5 -103
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Right, bankroll is a key factor...long losing streaks can bankrupt you fast.  I guess those great handicappers who can find the middle or lower pre-season pick that comes out of the gate hot will get the best odds and least juice.

Thanks for the heads up...I'll probably try the Morrison sweep system in conjunction with a 1 team chase this year...can't wait for baseball season!  So many games
 
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Posted: #5
I do a Alternate RL chase system if the series qualifies.

As an example (I like the Yankees too this year) what I do is this.
If they do not win by 3 runs or more for 4 games in a row, I chase for the next 5 (if the schedule allows it) but betting the -2,5 RL.
That will help me reduce risks.

I will post my plays when season starts if it can be of any help.

Cheers!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by TennisCapper:

I do a Alternate RL chase system if the series qualifies.

As an example (I like the Yankees too this year) what I do is this.
If they do not win by 3 runs or more for 4 games in a row, I chase for the next 5 (if the schedule allows it) but betting the -2,5 RL.
That will help me reduce risks.

I will post my plays when season starts if it can be of any help.

Cheers!



Thanks for the advice TC!  How many bets would you expect using the 3 run rule?  Do you include losses as "do not win by 3 runs or more for 4 games in a row?"  What odds do you expect with a -2.5 RL?  Do you have an statistics or figures from previous years?


 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by bl0wnaway:



Thanks for the advice TC!  How many bets would you expect using the 3 run rule?  Do you include losses as "do not win by 3 runs or more for 4 games in a row?"  What odds do you expect with a -2.5 RL?  Do you have an statistics or figures from previous years?




Backtracked it for a couple of teams for the last 5 seasons.
Did well overall.
Basically in order to qualify a team must not have won a game by 3 or more for 4 consecutive games. That, added to an "easy" schedule will do the rest.

You can expect odds between +180 / +240.
That will allow you to start betting just 0.3 units on the first game to win 1. If you lose you chase and in the second you bet to win 1.3.
Even if you lose the 5 games you still come out way better than the other chase systems because you lose about 3.5/4 units.
Then again, this is sports gambling so anything can happen! ha

I like Giants, Yankees, Diamondbacks so far this season.
We'll see how it goes. I'll be here waiting for your help in case you have something to advice. Let's make some monnneeyyy!


 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Hell yes dude...so do you include a loss as one of those 4 consecutive games?  Which sports book do you use that has the -2.5 RL?

I'm pretty excited about this system...since I only do pro sports betting and baseball season is the only thing around over the summer!
 
 
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Posted: #9
I'm gonna keep my eye on this for the first month or so of the season and watch for any hot 2009 teams.
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