huge favorite college football moneyline question

I haven't posted in a long time, but when I have, I was usually very pleased with the feedback I got. I got an interesting question. (at least I think it is) I'm relatively new to sports betting, I really only started last year mid-way through football season. I have learned some of the basics, money management is EVERYTHING, and parlays are for suckers. My question stems from going against these two basic principles. I have thought about laying a 500-1000$ 5-team parlay on the moneyline for college football teams that -1100 (ohio state game, wvu game, nebraska game, oklahoma game, florida game, or the washington game) or better. From various parlay calculators, I would get paid about half of what I bet. (for instance, if I put forth $1000, I would potentially get back about 500 or so.) Now, before you guys start ripping me, I'm sure I have not thought of all the angles of this and I'm sure there are some flaws, but on the surface, it seems like a relatively good play. I mean, what are the odds, OSU loses to no. illinois outright at home? I'm just curious as to what you guys think. Also, does anybody maybe have the exact numbers as to how often faves of -1000 or more win? I am extremely hesitant about pursuing this idea, just becasue i realize all it would take is one of those teams to blow it and there goes a significant portion of my bankroll. everyone says that the key to success in sports betting is winning straight wagers consistently over time and not trying to win it all in one bet, but really, how much of a risk would it be? If I were to place this bet, would I just be another sucker? Any thoughts would be appreciated. thanks ||moneybag.gif' border=0> ||an_burn_money.gif' border=0>

DONT DO IT

Yes Don't do it.......

I have been betting for several years now and have learned a lot the hard way. This was one of them. It seems like a beautiful system - you get to root for huge favorites, just to win. But every week there is one "what the fuck" game that blows you out of the water. Every time. Besides, some of the HUGE favorites don't have a money line.

I don't keep money lines, but I have data for all CFB games using point spreads. Since the REALLY BIG spreads don't usually have money lines, I checked for any spread over 7 points where the dog won. Here are just the first two weeks. Any one of these games could have sunk your parlay. WEEK 1 TCU at Oklahoma (-26) .....TCU 17 Oklahoma 10 Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (-8) .....Vanderbilt 24 Wake Forest 20 WEEK 2 Iowa (-9.5) at Iowa St .....Iowa St 21 Iowa 3 Missouri (-9) at New Mexico .....New Mexico 45 Missouri 35 Pitt (-14) at Ohio .....Ohio 16 Pitt 10 TCU (-14) at SMU .....SMU 21 TCU 10 Notre Dame at Michigan (-8) .....Notre Dame 17 Michigan 10

thanks for the feedback I've been thinking about it, and the more I do, the more I see another TCU-Oklahoma game that could potentially put a noticeable dent in my betting bankroll in the first week. I'm thinking about it this way, if last year I tried this type of parlay, i'd be out $1000 in week 1, probably on that tcu-ok game. Could this year's letdown be nebraska, washington, or west virgina against in-state rival marshall? unlikely, but why put so much on the line and put out such a big risk when you could make a smaller play and be guaranteed to play another day. again, thanks for the feedback, advice, and for opening my eyes to a potentially catastropic first NCAAF week of the season

A -1000 ML is about an 18 point favorite in NCAA football. From 1983-present, the straight up record for big favorites is: home fav (-18 to -20): 294-26-2 home fav (-20.5 to -30): 1133-50-6 home fav (-30.5 or more): 445-5-1 away fav (-18 to -20): 119-15-2 away fav (-20.5 to -30): 431-30-1 away fav (-30.5 or more): 111-4-0 the combined record is 2533-130-12, for a little better than 95% winning percentage. A 5-team parlay where each leg wins at 95% should win about 77.4% of the time, which is fair odds of about -342. You say you would pay -200 to play it, so it therefore seems like a good bet. The problem is that the moneylines on the -4000 favorites is going to be a lot higher than -1000, and you can't really find those moneylines everywhere. You would need to figure the odds on each game and see how they did individually. It is probably better to look at all games from -17.5 to -21 and assume an average ML of around -1300. Those kind of moneylines should usually be available to bet at more than a handful of sportsbooks. home favs -17.5 to -21: 546-47-4 away favs -17.5 to -21: 227-25-2 total: 773-72-6 That is overall 91.5% winners and a 5-team parlay would come it at 64.1%, for a fair moneyline of around -215. A 5-team parlay at an average of -1300 per leg will pay out at about -225. So it is not a terrific bet, but it is about break-even. Home favorites only are about 92% winners, and your 5-team parlay should win about 65.9% of the time, a fair line of -193. Assuming you can get this bet at -225, that should be a playable bet. Don't expect to make a lot of money on these, but this bet is better than a lot of other ones you can make. You are probably only at a slight disadvantage (or even an advantage) right off the bat, and if you do a little "handicapping" you probably can grind out some winners. You can find an article on big moneyline favorites here: BLOG

2 team moneyline thats the way to go!

look at auburn last week against arkansaw 15 point favorite getting beat by almost 15||an_burn_money.gif' border=0>

To Bloody: it's damn true that there is always one of HUGE favorites blow up the parlay. That's just how Vegas dont let u win parlay. It's true not only for FB but for evey sports betting, MLB, NHL, NBA ... and even soccers. the point is you dont know which will be that fucking team to void. So, just dont try.

BETTER Parlay two or 3 dogs ML then the Chalks MUCH Beter suscess with fewer teams involved way MORE Profit ! think of Baseball Games it the same thing YOU have seen Huge favorites lose all the Time in Baases why not the same thing in NFL and NBA I dont do it often but once in whwile when see the payout on a 3 team DOG ML paraly for only a $100 WAGER I GET $$$$ sIGNS IN MY EYES Look at it this way YOU like these Dogs to Cover right ? SO Be TWO paqralys one with the points ONE without IF all 3 DOGS WIn The Game YOUR FILTHY RICH IF They all Cover you still made 6-1 on your money lets do the math ok? 3 DOGs ML +150 + 130 +190 =+470 3 teamer pays 6-1 470 X 6 = $2820 per $100 bet ok say one dosent win game but covers YOu Lose $100 WIN $600 still PROFIT $500 and YOu Only risked $200 in stead of $330 to WIn $300 YOU just have to belive in your handicapping skills and go for it once in a while ! ||an_clap.gif' border=0>