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copied from another forum long ago last year worth reading very useful tips and stratagies
Sports Wagering 101
General Tips and Rules of Thumb of Successful Sports Wagering
Sports wagering is a unique opportunity in the gambling world.
If approached as an investment, with a cool head and disciplined manner,it can and will be profitable for you. The following points are listednumerically, but this should not be taken to mean that any one is more or less important than any other.
1. Never chase your losses. You will lose, there’s no avoiding it, but by doubling up your next bet or following some progressive scheme where the stakes constantly increase, your losses will only mount.
very important :Figure out why you lost and learn from it. Sometimes the reason can’t be determined, but often – and usually – it can.
2. Establish a fixed bankroll, unit size, and fiscal period. For example,$1000 to wager over the course of an NFL season. Your unit size should not
be more than 2% of your bankroll. In this example, unit size would be $20.
After 50 bets you would have turned over your bankroll ($20 X 50=$1000). At this point, you can either cash out any money above $1000 as profit or roll it over into your bankroll and increase your unit size accordingly.
6. Points 2-5 are what is called Money Management and it is absolutelyessential to being a successful sports wager and avoiding financial troubles.
Money Management is equally as important as studying stats and trends and making solid plays. Some would argue it is even more important.
8. Shop for odds and lines and get the best one for your pick. A point or half-point in the line can be the difference between winning your play and losing it, and a few cents here and there will add up over the years.
9. Pick solid plays, do your homework, and keep detailed records. There isno prefect way of picking a good play. I know over a dozen professional sports gamblers and each has a different method that works. Some focus exclusively on line and odds movements. Some on long-term trends, some on seasonal and situation trends, others on performance stats, and various
combinations of these methods. All have demonstrated success in their wagering. So there is no secret “system” or method. Try everything, seek new ways. Once you have demonstrated a profit over the long term, you’ve found the way to do it right.
10. Specialize. Pick one or two sports and focus exclusively. This is simply to cut down on the amount of work you’ll need to do to get
good. Learn everything you can about your specialty – its history, its trends, both long-term and short, the players, the injuries,
the mindsets, the performance stats, and everything going on in the current season. There
is no one sport more conducive to wagering than another. I couldn’t pick an NFL game to save my life, but some friends of mine make tens of thousands a year wagering NFL.
11. Avoid the two great myths: “Vegas” and “the Public”. You yourself are the public. It is made up of, yes, dweebs without the first clue, but also sharp players, decent players and players in between. It is a spectrum. “Vegas” doesn’t exist in the sense of some secret cabal of geniuses out to get your money, setting “traps”, and knowing something about a matchup that you don’t. It is simply an odds marketplace, and a worldwide one at that with the advent of this Internet thing. This
marketplace does NOT gamble. It is influenced entirely by supply and demand, like any marketplace. If there is demand for a certain product, say, Oreo cookies, its price will increase, until the demand levels off. If there is great demand, its price will increase appropriately. At the same time, Oreo’s competitor, Fig Newtons, will lower its price appropriately, until the marketplace achieves balance. That is how the lines and odds market works.
Exactly and without the least bit of difference. If the Sonics are a 5 point dog in LA, this simply means the supply of money on Seattle exceeds the
demand for money on LA. The “price” of LA will increase until demand levels off and at the same time the “price” of Seattle will fall until absolute balance is achieves between the demand and the supply. Seattle will go to +5.5 or +6 and so one. So “Vegas” is the inhuman marketplace governed by the laws of supply and demand and “the Public” are simply the millions of consumers setting the “prices” – odds and lines – by their choices. Consuming some bets (LA –5) at a higher rate than others (Seattle+5).
12. Remember, the dog is there to win the game. Don’t buy a product simply because it is more popular than another (Yankees –300, Ray-bans $700 a pair).
Perhaps another product, a much cheaper one, will work just as well (Devil Rays +190, Cheap Sunglasses $9.95).
Good luck,
Carl Baden
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