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Detecting Unpredictability using Standard Deviation (NHL)

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Posts: 16
 
Veteran
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Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1476
Posted: #1
This is something that I randomly thought of today while trying to help a friend understand standard deviation for her stats class.

The stats I incorporated into the formula were GF/G, GA/G, 5-5FA, PP%, PK%, S/G, SA/G, FO%
I use the formula by the league ranking of each stat for each team.

We all know that the higher the standard deviation is, the more unpredictable the game should be theoretically.

Well using this information, I have came up with two theories that I wish to test and track in this thread.
1) In a game with high unpredictability, you should bet the dog.
2) In a game with high unpredictability, the game might be more likely to go to OT.

I'll be betting (not real money yet) on any game that has a 15 or higher Standard Deviation combined between the two teams.

Nov. 4th
NYI/NYR (SD = 18.41)
NYI +270
OT +400

Nas/Van (SD = 15.83)
Nas +139
OT +320

Ana/LA (SD = 18.21)
LA +132
OT +320

 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 281
Posted: #2
Very interesting and very creative....
 
Veteran
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Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 1402
Posted: #3
TP you are always thinking... I will be interested on how this plays out. 
 
Veteran
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Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1476
Posted: #4
1) 1-2 +0.70u
2) 1-2 +1.2u

I'll post any games for today soon
 
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Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1476
Posted: #5
I'm gonna split the results by SD (A = 15-15.99, B = 16-16.99 etc)

A
1) 0-1 -1.00u
2) 0-1 -1.00u

D
1) 1-1 +1.70u
2) 1-1 +2.20u


Nov 5th
TB/NJ (SD = 21.29 [G])
Odd not out yet.

Stl/Ana (SD = 15.48 [A])
Stl +161
OT +350
 
Captain
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Joined: Sep, 2004
Posts: 5547
Posted: #6
Toms...I sent you an e-mail last week...did you see it?
 
Veteran
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Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1476
Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

Toms...I sent you an e-mail last week...did you see it?
I must have missed it, I'll check now and see and email you back.

I'll get todays games up soon

A
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 0-2 -2.0u

D
1) 1-1 +1.70u
2) 1-1 +2.20u

G
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 1-0 +3.2u
 
Veteran
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Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1476
Posted: #8
I know it's a bit late but I'll post them anyway for tracking purposes.

Nov 6th
Fla/LA (SD = 19.23 [E])
Fla +118
OT +300

Min/Col (SD = 18.38 [D])
Min +106
OT +300

NYI/Atl (SD = 15.08 [A])
NYI +130
OT +325

Phi/Ott (SD = 18.20 [D])
Phi +125
OT +300

Stl/Sj (SD = 15.65 [A])
Stl +255
OT +350

TB/NYR (SD = 21.51 [G])
TB +172
OT +300

Tor/Bos (SD = 17.20 [C])
Tor +155
OT +320

 
Veteran
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Posts: 1476
Posted: #9
A
1) 0-4 -4.0u
2) 1-3 +0.5u

C
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 0-1 -1.0u

D
1) 2-2 +1.76u
2) 1-3 +0.20u

E
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 0-1 -1.0u

G
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 1-1 +2.2u


November 7th, 2008
Atl/Buf (SD = 15.54 [A])
Atl +230
OT +365

Dal/Ana (SD = 15.46 [A])
Dal +145
OT +325
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1476
Posted: #10
Good day yesterday :)
A
1) 2-4 -0.25u
2) 2-3 +3.15u

C
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 0-1 -1.0u

D
1) 2-2 +1.76u
2) 1-3 +0.20u

E
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 0-1 -1.0u

G
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 1-1 +2.2u


November 8th, 2008
Buf/Bos (SD = 16.30 [B])
Buf +120
OT +325

Pit/NYI (SD = 15.70 [A])
NYI +150
OT +350

TB/Phi (SD = 19.97 [E])
TB +137
OT +340

NYR/Was (SD = 15.37 [A])
NYR +109
OT +320

NJ/Det (SD = 18.90 [D])
NJ +210
OT +365

Nas/Col (SD = 19.40 [E])
Nas +132
OT +325

Min/Van (SD = 17.12 [C])
Min +134
OT +340

Dal/SJ (SD = 16.00 [B])
Dal +182
OT +355

Stl/LA (SD = 20.21 [F])
Stl +122
OT +335
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1476
Posted: #11
A
1) 2-6 -2.25u
2) 3-4 +5.45u

B
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 0-2 -2.0u

C
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 0-2 -2.0u

D
1) 2-3 +0.76u
2) 1-4 -0.80u

E
1) 1-2 -0.63u
2) 0-3 -3.0u

F
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 0-1 -1.0u

G
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 1-1 +2.2u


November 9th, 2008
Edm/NJ (SD = 15.32 [A])
NJ -103
OT +300

SJ/Phx (SD = 15.62 [A])
Phx +137
OT +320
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1476
Posted: #12
A
1) 3-7 -1.88u
2) 3-7 +5.45u

B
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 0-2 -2.0u

C
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 0-2 -2.0u

D
1) 2-3 +0.76u
2) 1-4 -0.80u

E
1) 1-2 -0.63u
2) 0-3 -3.0u

F
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 0-1 -1.0u

G
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 1-1 +2.2u


November 10th, 2008
TB/Was (SD = 15.18 [A])
TB +155
OT +335

 
Veteran
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Posts: 1476
Posted: #13
A
1) 3-8 -2.88u
2) 3-8 +4.45u

B
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 0-2 -2.0u

C
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 0-2 -2.0u

D
1) 2-3 +0.76u
2) 1-4 -0.80u

E
1) 1-2 -0.63u
2) 0-3 -3.0u

F
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 0-1 -1.0u

G
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 1-1 +2.2u


November 11th, 2008
Phi/NYI (SD = 18.37 [D])
NYI +135
OT +320

Tor/Cal (SD = 16.64 [B])
Tor +132
OT +325

Dal/LA (SD = 17.88 [C])
LA +107
OT +300

Nsh/SJ (SD = 15.47 [A])
Nsh +200
OT +360
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1476
Posted: #14
A
1) 4-8 -0.88u
2) 4-8 +8.05u

B
1) 0-3 -3.0u
2) 0-3 -3.0u

C
1) 1-2 -0.93u
2) 1-2 +1.0u

D
1) 2-4 -0.24u
2) 1-5 -1.80u

E
1) 1-2 -0.63u
2) 0-3 -3.0u

F
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 0-1 -1.0u

G
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 1-1 +2.2u


November 11th, 2008
Mon/Bos (SD = 16.15 [B])
Bos +120
OT +300

NYI/Ott (SD = 16.57 [B])
NYI +200
OT +365

Phi/Pit (SD = 15.31 [A])
Phi +145
OT +335

Det/TB (SD = 16.42 [B])
TB +180
OT +315

Phx/Min (SD = 18.81 [D])
Phx +168
OT +300

LA/Dal (SD = 18.24 [D])
LA +162
OT +350

Tor/Edm (SD = 15.26 [A])
Tor +122
OT +325

 
Veteran
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Posts: 1476
Posted: #15
A
1) 5-9 -0.66u
2) 5-9 +10.20u

B
1) 2-4 -0.8u
2) 0-6 -6.0u

C
1) 1-2 -0.93u
2) 1-2 +1.0u

D
1) 3-5 +0.38u
2) 1-7 -3.80u

E
1) 1-2 -0.63u
2) 0-3 -3.0u

F
1) 0-1 -1.0u
2) 0-1 -1.0u

G
1) 0-2 -2.0u
2) 1-1 +2.2u


November 14th, 2008
Nsh/Ana (SD = 15.48 [A])
Nsh +173
OT +340

NJ/Was (SD = 17.88 [C])
NJ +175
OT +350

Clb/Buf (SD = 15.14 [A])
Clb +157
OT +350

Det/Fla (SD = 16.14 [B])
Fla +143
OT +325

Stl/Chi (SD = 16.41 [B]
Stl +175
OT +340
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 346
Posted: #16
How is this going Tom?
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