College Bowl Systems and Analysis

Over the next few weeks will be outlining some basic strategies and systems for NCAA Bowl Games, as well as making some suggested picks in our BettorStats Blog (https://blog.bettorstats.com). In addition, from now until kickoff of the first bowl game (Pointsettia Bowl, December 19th), we will be offering our NCAA Bowl database for the discounted price of $75. You can find more information on the bowl database on our Products Page (https://www.bettorstats.com/Bowl_data.htm). To recieve the discounted price, please email us at info@bettorstats.com with your preferred payment method (PayPal suggested). College Bowl Games have traditionally been great for the underdogs. Since 1998, underdogs are an amazing 124-79-4 (59.9%) against the closing line. Furthermore, underdogs on games in December are an even more impressive 89-49-3 (64.5%). College Bowl System #1 - Scheduling System This is a scheduling system. Since 1998, it is 46-24-1 (65.7%), including 6-3-1 last year. Plays for 2006: Oregon +5 Arizona State +8 Alabama +2.5 Kentucky +10 Minnesota +7 Georgia +2.5 Iowa +11 USC +1.5 Notre Dame +8.5 Florida +8 College Bowl System #2 - Big underdogs in December This system calls for playing on any underdog of 8 or more in the December bowl games. Since 1998, it is 27-9-1 (75%). Northern Illinois +13 Arizona State +8 Middle Tennessee State +10.5 Kentucky +10 Iowa +11 https://blog.bettorstats.com https://www.bettorstats.com

As part of our continuing bowl analysis, we present a favorable situation in Bowl games for totals bettors: College Bowl System #3 - January Unders In January Games with favorites of 3.5 or more points, go under games with a total of 48 or more. Since 1995, this system is 29-10-2 (74%). 2006 plays: Ga Tech/W Virginia under 48.5 Boise St/Oklahoma under 50.5 Wake Forest/Louisville under 51.5 Notre Dame/LSU under 55.5

Good points,and we must remember most chalks think they are to good for the bowl they are in so that messes with their heads,and the dog is fired up.

Please note that any moneyline plays will be tracked seperately as our tracking service does not monitor these. Our general strategy for bowl games will be to identify underdogs who match up statistically well with their opponent, with similar strength of schedule, and play them on the moneyline. We also consider a number of situational factors, some of which have been posted in our blog. Friday 12/22 - Troy State +180 - 1 unit to win 1.8 Troy is slightly below average offensively and defensively, while Rice has a strong rushing game. However, the Rice defense has been absolutely horrible, allowing 6.6 yards per play against teams averaging only 5.4 ypp, and allowing an average of 33 points per game to teams averaging 24. The weak defense makes a Troy outright win at almost 2-1 worth playing. Saturday 12/23 - San Jose State +150 - 3 units to win 4.5 units New Mexico is a below average team in all respects, while San Jose State has out-averaged their opponents both offensively and defensively. We believe San Jose State should be favored here and will make it likely our biggest bowl plays at 3 units. Saturday 12/23 - Tulsa +105 - 1 unit to win 1.05 Tulsa/Utah OVER 49 -110 - 1.1 units to win 1 unit Utah has the distinction of allowing the 3rd most yards per pass (8.0 yards per pass) of all the bowl teams. This will be exploited by a Tulsa passing game that averages almost 8 yards per pass. Tulsa should be able to turn this advanatge into a lot of points on the scoreboard. We will return next week with the next batch of bowl selections. https://blog.bettorstats.com https://www.bettorstats.com

We posted three "systems" for college bowl games in this blog starting in early December. Now that the season is over, let's take a look at how they worked out. College Bowl System #1 - Scheduling System This is a scheduling system. Since 1998, it is 46-24-1 (65.7%), including 6-3-1 last year. Plays for 2006: Oregon +5 - L Arizona State +8 - L Alabama +2.5 - L Kentucky +10 - W Minnesota +7 - W Georgia +2.5 - W Iowa +11 - W USC +1.5 - W Notre Dame +8.5 - L Florida +8 - W Although it started off slow, this system performed extremely well as we got further into bowl season. Overall, this system went 6-4 for a profit of +1.6 units. It now stands at 52-28-1 (65%) since 1998. College Bowl System #2 - Big underdogs in December This system calls for playing on any underdog of 8 or more in the December bowl games. Since 1998, it is 27-9-1 (75%). Northern Illinois +13 - L Arizona State +8 - L Middle Tennessee State +10.5 - L Kentucky +10 - W Iowa +11 - W This system put up a subpar 2-3 record for a loss of 1.3 units. Interestingly, teams that qualified in BOTH systems (Kentucky and Iowa) were 2-0 this year. College Bowl System #3 - January Unders In January Games with favorites of 3.5 or more points, go under games with a total of 48 or more. Since 1995, this system is 29-10-2 (74%). 2006 plays: Ga Tech/W Virginia under 48.5 - L Boise St/Oklahoma under 50.5 - L Wake Forest/Louisville under 51.5 - W Notre Dame/LSU under 55.5 - W This system went 2-2 for a loss of 0.2 units.

Good job, bettorstats, I followed your system, and it definitely helped me some of the times which I was undecided - do you have a system for the upcoming March Madness tournament or Triple Crown races? If you're like me, you're already working on it!