Posted:
#1
I hope this will lead to a system with a high strike rate, but, for the moment is just a theory.
The basic idea is that if we know the probability of success for each independent trial we can fairly estimate the number of successes and failures we can expect in a series of n trials.
Based on that I will try to identify situations where good teams are "due to win" or bad teams are "due to lose" a game.
Obviously the performance of a baseball team in one specific game is not an independent event (like tossing a coin). The team's performance in one particular game is related to how that team did in it's games played before. There is a factor that makes the difference between good and bad teams. If we flip the coin 9 times and get 9 heads the odds to get a tail in the 10th trial is 50%, but if Red Sox are losing 9 games in a row at home (
) in the 10th game the odds to lose again are very close to 0.00 at a home record of 13 - 4.
) in the 10th game the odds to lose again are very close to 0.00 at a home record of 13 - 4.I think the key to turn this idea or theory into a profitable baseball betting system is to be patient and wait for those situations where something is "due to happen" (win, loss, over, under).
My pick for tonight is San Francisco to win against the Nationals.
Reason:
Nationals have a 5-12 record (29%) on the road and they are coming off 5 games on the road with a 3-2 record. Pretty odd distribution of successes and failures at a 29% rate of success so far. The probability for the Nationals to have at most 3 wins in a series of 6 games on the road is 93.7% and that makes the Giants a very good bet. And that's without taking into account the Giants record at home of 10-4 (71%).
0
.
1-0.
Hot Forum Topics
