Posted:
#1
howdy!
like many, I get an idea in my head, do a little research and then put money on it. As I am usually at the top end of a trend it works for a while before gravity takes over and the wins dry up and we get back to 50/50 land. Dont seem to lose, just dont win in the long run :-) luckily I am a conservative punter so I tend to hover around zero benefit.
However... I have noticed a few things on the journey...
and they relate to the idea of betting both sides of the equation.
1) I use a variety of books. I have noticed that it is reasonably common for there to be a variation of up to 2 pts in the spreads on offer in NBA at any given moment.Not on all games, but on most days there will be at least one game in this category.
If you take Team a at -2 and Team B at +4 that is being offered at different books, you will lose a little each bet.
For your 2 unit outlay you will end up .1 to .15 worse off.
But, every now and then you will win both bets - my rough back of the envelope assessment of this is that it would be about 10% of the time, maybe slightly more.
(I just know someone with all the NBA ATS stats for all time is going to press a button on their PC and say - "wrong" its only 2%, we shall wait and see)
2) I have also noticed that from time to time one can get both sides of the game in the black. e.g. a week or so ago, I was able to pick up the Utah over for $2.05 and the opposite under for $2.05 on a different book and sit back knowing I had won a few % - guaranteed.
this is my preferred method of gambling :-)
We have seen a similar example of this with Boston over the past few weeks where they were a - spread when the lines were first out and then drifted to a + spread. So you could have had them both sides of the coin if you had taken them the night before.
3) Patriotism
I noticed a few weeks ago that in a European basketball game the German team had a spread of -7 on a German book I use whilst the rest of the world had the game as a -2 or -3 bet.
I am assuming that due to local patriotism the local book had to push the price tighter on the local team.
I have never explored this kind of patriotism angle before, but I am assuming it must be quite strong in events like the Olympics and the various World Cups we get each year.
Has anyone explored this ?
Anyhow, just a few ramblings, look forward to your thoughts...
see ya
WB
like many, I get an idea in my head, do a little research and then put money on it. As I am usually at the top end of a trend it works for a while before gravity takes over and the wins dry up and we get back to 50/50 land. Dont seem to lose, just dont win in the long run :-) luckily I am a conservative punter so I tend to hover around zero benefit.
However... I have noticed a few things on the journey...
and they relate to the idea of betting both sides of the equation.
1) I use a variety of books. I have noticed that it is reasonably common for there to be a variation of up to 2 pts in the spreads on offer in NBA at any given moment.Not on all games, but on most days there will be at least one game in this category.
If you take Team a at -2 and Team B at +4 that is being offered at different books, you will lose a little each bet.
For your 2 unit outlay you will end up .1 to .15 worse off.
But, every now and then you will win both bets - my rough back of the envelope assessment of this is that it would be about 10% of the time, maybe slightly more.
(I just know someone with all the NBA ATS stats for all time is going to press a button on their PC and say - "wrong" its only 2%, we shall wait and see)
2) I have also noticed that from time to time one can get both sides of the game in the black. e.g. a week or so ago, I was able to pick up the Utah over for $2.05 and the opposite under for $2.05 on a different book and sit back knowing I had won a few % - guaranteed.
this is my preferred method of gambling :-)
We have seen a similar example of this with Boston over the past few weeks where they were a - spread when the lines were first out and then drifted to a + spread. So you could have had them both sides of the coin if you had taken them the night before.
3) Patriotism
I noticed a few weeks ago that in a European basketball game the German team had a spread of -7 on a German book I use whilst the rest of the world had the game as a -2 or -3 bet.
I am assuming that due to local patriotism the local book had to push the price tighter on the local team.
I have never explored this kind of patriotism angle before, but I am assuming it must be quite strong in events like the Olympics and the various World Cups we get each year.
Has anyone explored this ?
Anyhow, just a few ramblings, look forward to your thoughts...
see ya
WB
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