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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Baseball Underdog System

    Rappie
    deliveryman3
    nccashman
    Redlad
    Sharkysden
    ...
    Participants:
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    Views: 3061
    Posts: 15
     
    Rappie
    Rappie
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 12:51 PM ET #1

    I found this system looking around online and wanted to see what you guys thought.  The link is https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/, but the basics of it are:

    1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.

    2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers' daily MLB standings.)

    3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team's pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin(R) on USA Today's Web site (see above for a further explanation).

    4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make $20 wagers (according to our example Bankroll) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite bookmakers for the best possible moneyline odds.

    5) Before making the next day's bets, roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your Bankroll on each game.


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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    I found this system looking around online and wanted to see what you guys thought.  The link is https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/, but the basics of it are:

    1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.

    2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers' daily MLB standings.)

    3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team's pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin(R) on USA Today's Web site (see above for a further explanation).

    4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make $20 wagers (according to our example Bankroll) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite bookmakers for the best possible moneyline odds.

    5) Before making the next day's bets, roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your Bankroll on each game.


     
    deliveryman3
    deliveryman3
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 4:23 PM ET #2

    I tracked this last yr........did not do well........fading it would have made net profit of around 5k  thru august
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    I tracked this last yr........did not do well........fading it would have made net profit of around 5k  thru august
     
    nccashman
    nccashman
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2008 - 12:46 AM ET #3

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    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 29, 2008 - 6:07 AM ET #4

    Yes=== This system SUCKS!===Save your $$$
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    Yes=== This system SUCKS!===Save your $$$
     
    Sharkysden
    Sharkysden
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    Posted: May. 28, 2008 - 1:27 PM ET #5

    I just ran a test on this from may1st to may27th.
     
    --I made the cut off at +155
    --I didn't include any juice dogs (-105) just even money dogs and up
    --I used the Sagarin ratings for 52+ innings pitched.
    -- I used the opening line as a guide. 
    -- also my money profit listed is for straight units, I did not use a percentage BR system.
     
    RESULTS
    67-63   51.50%
    straight 1 unit bets would have made a profit of 15.13 units in the month of may. 
     
    If you're a $100 bettor you'd be up $1513 for the month of May.
     
    Not a bad system if you ask me, it took me about 5 minutes to scan a day's card. 
     
    I should also note that the pitcher ratings I used were up to date, so complete accuracy here in the 1st couple weeks of may is nearly impossible. 
     
    but still if you can go 48% with this system you'd be in the black. 
     
    This system brings in a ton of road dogs.  I like the idea of this one because I can spend more time finding a good price and less time capping.   
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    I just ran a test on this from may1st to may27th.
     
    --I made the cut off at +155
    --I didn't include any juice dogs (-105) just even money dogs and up
    --I used the Sagarin ratings for 52+ innings pitched.
    -- I used the opening line as a guide. 
    -- also my money profit listed is for straight units, I did not use a percentage BR system.
     
    RESULTS
    67-63   51.50%
    straight 1 unit bets would have made a profit of 15.13 units in the month of may. 
     
    If you're a $100 bettor you'd be up $1513 for the month of May.
     
    Not a bad system if you ask me, it took me about 5 minutes to scan a day's card. 
     
    I should also note that the pitcher ratings I used were up to date, so complete accuracy here in the 1st couple weeks of may is nearly impossible. 
     
    but still if you can go 48% with this system you'd be in the black. 
     
    This system brings in a ton of road dogs.  I like the idea of this one because I can spend more time finding a good price and less time capping.   
     
    Livan33
    Livan33
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    Posted: May. 28, 2008 - 3:54 PM ET #6

    Rappie, are you going to track this? I'd be interested to know how it ends up doing.
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    Rappie, are you going to track this? I'd be interested to know how it ends up doing.
     
    Livan33
    Livan33
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    Posted: May. 28, 2008 - 3:55 PM ET #7

    I just saw that his post was in February, so I guess the answer to my question is "no".
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    I just saw that his post was in February, so I guess the answer to my question is "no".
     
    rudie
    rudie
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    Posted: May. 30, 2008 - 2:10 AM ET #8

    picking a team based on where vegas sets the line ??? doesnt sound like a system that indicates what may happen in the future. these stats are strictly backfilled. meaning looking at what already happened and setting a formula that represents the past, not predicting the future. is everybody a newbie here.
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    picking a team based on where vegas sets the line ??? doesnt sound like a system that indicates what may happen in the future. these stats are strictly backfilled. meaning looking at what already happened and setting a formula that represents the past, not predicting the future. is everybody a newbie here.
     
    GAMBLE_4heisman
    GAMBLE_4heisman
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    Posted: May. 30, 2008 - 9:05 AM ET #9

    i agree with Rudie, why did you change the parameters to +155 from +150?  Did it help the system do better?  You can't change parameters of a system and then evaluate the parameters using the data you used to set the parameters.....  think about it....
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    i agree with Rudie, why did you change the parameters to +155 from +150?  Did it help the system do better?  You can't change parameters of a system and then evaluate the parameters using the data you used to set the parameters.....  think about it....
     
    Sharkysden
    Sharkysden
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    Posted: May. 30, 2008 - 9:49 AM ET #10

    There were only 3 games at +155 and they went 1-2 so it doesn't really matter. 
     
    Also how else am I supposed to test a system if I can't use past games?  I can track it in real time for a month but as soon as the games are over they become past games. 
     
    This system is old and all over the internet, I figured it was worth a shot to test it over a month of games.   Just trying to help out and show some results, if they were bad I still would have posted them. 
     
    Remember I did not post this system I just back tested it. 
     
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    There were only 3 games at +155 and they went 1-2 so it doesn't really matter. 
     
    Also how else am I supposed to test a system if I can't use past games?  I can track it in real time for a month but as soon as the games are over they become past games. 
     
    This system is old and all over the internet, I figured it was worth a shot to test it over a month of games.   Just trying to help out and show some results, if they were bad I still would have posted them. 
     
    Remember I did not post this system I just back tested it. 
     
     
    Sharkysden
    Sharkysden
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    Posted: May. 30, 2008 - 10:44 AM ET #11

     an extra note, I am tracking this from May 28th to July 1st so I can have an accurate sample with current sagarin ratings. 
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     an extra note, I am tracking this from May 28th to July 1st so I can have an accurate sample with current sagarin ratings. 
     
    GAMBLE_4heisman
    GAMBLE_4heisman
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    Posted: May. 30, 2008 - 9:53 PM ET #12

    if you come up with a system using the stats from one year....test it against other years to see how it fits....it doesn't matter if the system is created from a prior or post year.
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    if you come up with a system using the stats from one year....test it against other years to see how it fits....it doesn't matter if the system is created from a prior or post year.
     
    deliveryman3
    deliveryman3
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    Posted: May. 30, 2008 - 10:35 PM ET #13

    I tracked this thru august last yr....lost big time....cant speak for other seasons....dog system but fading it netted over 5k (all fav bets) last yr
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    I tracked this thru august last yr....lost big time....cant speak for other seasons....dog system but fading it netted over 5k (all fav bets) last yr
     
    kjl84
    kjl84
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    Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 2:17 PM ET #14

    65-2 system. check it out here
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    65-2 system. check it out here
     
     
    19ecoboy79
    19ecoboy79
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2008 - 3:21 PM ET #15

    In other thread they said the John Morrison system sucks.
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    In other thread they said the John Morrison system sucks.
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