Another of my MLB strategies

So I was researching some stuff and stumbled across this by accident. I vaguely remember reading somewhere in my past about the value of the underdog in Division Rivals. While looking at some more complex approaches I came across a very simple one.

This will be my system 2.

Before I explain my bet here is the starting point.

If you were to bet the underdog in every division rival game you would have the following results. (Please remember my 2001 results are slightly flawed and I have not had the chance to fix them yet).

These are the numbers if you bet on the underdog in every division rival game. No betting after September 1st.


1999    242    312     $  1,215.86     43.7%
2000    253    288     $  5,694.48     46.8%
2001    323    418     $   (144.62)    43.6%
2002    354    493     $   (914.38)    41.8%
2003    350    447     $  5,980.10     43.9%
2004    414    584     $   (940.00)    41.5%
2005    334    409     $  3,558.39     45.0%
2006    375    470     $  1,041.06     44.4%
2007    335    401     $  3,695.68     45.5%
2008    356    436     $  2,162.99     44.9%
    3336    4258     $21,349.55     
                


Nearly a 44% win percentage at an average line of +135. Definitely an upside here but with three losing seasons I decided to break it down more.


Only betting Home Dogs in Division Rival Games

1999    77    108     $(1,342.14)    41.6%
2000    89    85     $  2,847.48     51.1%
2001    118    162     $(2,245.62)    42.1%
2002    142    182     $   (352.38)    43.8%
2003    152    161     $  3,592.10     48.6%
2004    207    292     $   (470.00)    41.5%
2005    88    119     $   (833.39)    42.5%
2006    131    143     $  1,300.98     47.8%
2007    109    136     $   (660.02)    44.5%
2008    106    121     $     (52.89)    46.7%
    1219    1509     $  1,784.11     


And only betting Away Dogs in Division Rival Games

1999    165    204     $  2,558.00     2.43    44.7%
2000    164    203     $  2,847.00     2.44    44.7%
2001    205    256     $  2,101.00     2.40    44.5%
2002    212    311     $   (562.00)    2.48    40.5%
2003    198    286     $  2,388.00     2.57    40.9%
2004    207    292     $   (470.00)    2.45    41.5%
2005    246    290     $  4,391.78     2.39    45.9%
2006    244    327     $   (259.92)    2.39    42.7%
2007    226    265     $  4,355.70     2.38    46.0%
2008    250    315     $  2,215.88     2.39    44.2%
    2117    2749     $19,565.43         


Holy crap. The line makers definitely under value the Road Dog.

Do we have a bet here. I think so, but lets break it down one more time

Betting on a visiting Dog in a Division Rival Game, American League only.

1999    77    81     $  2,769.00     48.7%
2000    67    89     $     911.00     42.9%
2001    96    125     $     673.00     43.4%
2002    81    127     $   (673.00)    38.9%
2003    88    117     $  2,311.00     42.9%
2004    88    127     $   (810.00)    40.9%
2005    111    115     $  3,737.64     49.1%
2006    96    151     $(2,038.99)    38.9%
2007    93    117     $  1,558.50     44.3%
2008    105    146     $   (381.35)    41.8%
    902    1195     $  8,056.80     


And betting on a visiting dog in a Division Rival Game, National League only

1999    88    123     $   (211.00)    2.41    41.7%
2000    97    114     $  1,936.00     2.42    46.0%
2001    109    131     $  1,428.00     2.35    45.4%
2002    131    184     $     111.00     2.43    41.6%
2003    110    169     $      77.00     2.52    39.4%
2004    119    165     $     340.00     2.45    41.9%
2005    135    175     $     654.14     2.37    43.5%
2006    148    176     $  1,779.06     2.33    45.7%
2007    133    148     $  2,797.20     2.34    47.3%
2008    145    169     $  2,597.23     2.40    46.2%
    1215    1554     $11,508.63         


Not much difference. To wrap it up betting on the visiting dog in a division rival game will provide about a 44% average (about the league average) at an amazing +140.


Here is my bet

I am going to bet 1 to 1 1/2% on all visiting division rivals if they are an underdog. I am hoping for about a 10% to 15% return. I will stop betting on September 1st.


I will conduct more research to see if I can eliminate games from my System 1, or find some more filters.

Comments and thoughts please.