UEFA (U21s, WC Qualifiers (Mens)....

does someone mind telling me why this thread keeps coming back as "being flagged for spam??"     cant get anything up? 

decided to combine the two and toss up everything. spent far more time with the U21s tho.

U21s: 

Euro U21 Champs: being held in Hungary/Slovenia. Slightly different format/rules due to Covid; 4 Groups of 4 teams each, Top 2 advance. and on a side note, the Top 4 automatically qualify for the summer Olympics, so theres a sh*tload of incentive for the Qtr-Final matchups when the time comes) decided to cram all the Group Stage matches into one week with the Finals in June. what we like about this tourney is though the Power 5 leagues, for obvious reasons they usually have strong sides with rosters full of young stars. many of them have STARTING jobs locked down within theire respective club teams. spend week-in & week-out practicing, learning, understanding and going up against superstars on the Mens level Natl teams. so the skill/technical level is just simply put, considerably higher than everyone elses. however, the problem with those bigger countries.... and its a MAJOR one..... cohesion.
not only have they had limited practice time. (for THIS year nobody was able to schedule Friendlies due to the pandemic so its much more difficult to see how far along these teams are) but a lot of them have kids playing all over the place in europe; even with their own country theyre on different teams, different systems, diff styles. it can become pretty problematic for a Head Coach. (see England below). and they dont need to "impress", theyre already 'known',and already making big $$$. so those mid-tier countries as we have become accustomed to knowing from the Mens level, at the youth stage. theyve all come up together, played together, childhood friends or whatever you want to call it. and bloody tough nuts to beat at this level. i wouldnt go saying the PRIDE is more, its the same everywhere; but going up against any eastern european country is no picnic in this thing. but again, at this level, all it takes is one "gifted" player to take you all the way (see Portugal)

thoughts on the teams:
as always, right from the get-go:
Italy to win @+1050 - one of those 'loyalty' things. we actually have the quality to reach semis.

England to win @+450 - another 'donation to book'? (see below. one of these ****-ing years they are going to put it all together.

Spain - i wouldnt call them favs, but this is a pretty good spot to start with if ur going to try and figure out whom will reach Champ round. theyre always there, defending champs. and (i think), have made the semis last 5 times. THIS year, they only have two players from Real & Barca but still the favs, yet again.

England -this team is loaded. 16 of their 22 man roster pulling paychecks from the EPL. several of them holding down starting roles. pretty much says it all. and I dont know how many minutes theyve been getting but their entire midfield is EPL. (and you guys know my thoughts on the midfield position) but a buddy up there sent this my way, "Blighty always shoots their feet in this thing, cant get everybody on same page". something i wanted to touch on, its similar everywhere, but up there it seems to be magnified even more. this comes from a close friend whoms a 'lifer' Lions supporter, true & through. perhaps its cause of the size of the country, I dont know.  rivalries/derbys are deep rooted. and you can talk from here to kingdom come to a kid to drop his club loyalties for the sake of the 'better' and they still get a mental block. so when time comes to run alongside another? ehhhh.... this is why its soo bloody important to have consistency in the coaching ranks at this level. and the guy in charge for the Lions is in his 6th year.
(ill probably end up backing them again this year. did it two years ago too. they 'SHOULD' roll here. and when you look at the Mens team and the success theyve been enjoying the past few years. EDIT - hey Boll, if ur out there. gota to give my props.....looks like theyve/you finally figured things out up there and wont be going away anywhere for quite some time).

Portugal - always STRONG at the youth level, right on down to the 8 year olds (laughing); i think they had a semi finalist at the 17, 19, & 21s last time it was held. when you consider the size of the countyr and the pool size to choose from, sometimes its hard to figure out. Trincao, plays for Barca, scores goals for Barca, and Liga is the strongest in europe top to bottom IMO. if not mistaken, is also on Portugals roster for euros. gets to run alongside Lionel & Christian, theres but a handful Id imagine whom can say that in their lives..... every little kids dream. the best of both worlds ehh? at THIS level, hes head & shoulders above everyone else. a buddy says he can carry them. Port is never considered a 'darkhorse' at the youth level.

Italy - now that we are done hosting this thing, we are darkhorses, i like this team. our changes withing the youth system is starting to pay off; building, developing and KEEPING THEM TOGETHER through the age groups. we have just 9 on Serie A rosters, several of the others are on loan from those clubs. and arguably, the best MF in the U21s with Tonali. and the bulk of this squad grew up together, this is their final time (unless they make the Mens team). and we came in 1st coming out of the toughest qualifying group.
heres the plan: 1)Azzurri win U21s. 2)Azzurri win Euros. 3) Azzurri win WC. 4) retire to small island and sip drinks with little unbrellas in them. reality? wake up and go grab some breakfast.

Holland - yeah, i know. 46 goals in 10 Qualifiers; might want to take a peek at whom was in their group (Gibraltar, Cyprus, Belarus). end of THAT discussion. they always look GREAT at this level, until they run into someone whom has an organized defense.

Germany - as always. the machine keeps running. when you can get individual talent drilled into a system at an early age, the end result is 'Germany'. and they hardly ever beat themselves, even at the youth level. dumb mistakes are just simply few & far between.

Romania - made the semis 2 years ago. had Germans level in the 90th but fell during injury time. lost their two superstars (age) but back in it again. so this shows the fall off isnt as steep and theres some quality up there in Dracula-land. yet again, these guys should be a tough out, but i am unsure with the limited practice time what we will see. a real darkhorse again as this is an exxtremely organized side perhaps not as strong individual talent.

Round 1:

Czech/Italy - last year we thumped Spain in the opener, didnt even advance & Spain went on to win the title. a little suprised this opened at '+' money, a little late but still a decent price, above average defense at this level with Frabotta & Lovato back there. Czech came out of a tough group but 12 of their 20 goals were vs San Marino. Italy to win @-115

Slovenia/Spain over 3.5 @+160
Germany -1.5 @+110
Portugal/Croatia under 2.5 @+105
Romania +1/2 @+120

Thanks for the insight spec! Best of luck as always and stay safe my friend! Best wishes to self and close one's which is the most important.. 

Mis mejores deseos para ti espécimen

Good luck Spec  Forza Italia 

Italy to win @-115 (L)
Slovenia/Spain over 3.5 @+160 (L) could have put up 6-7 easily. 
Germany -1.5 @+110
Portugal/Croatia under 2.5 @+105
Romania +1/2 @+120

Andal  good to see you around again & hope all is well
Alfha as always. espero que todo este bien 

Cody, been a while. hope all is well and tks fer stopping by

Cody, annoyed as **** never mind I forgot we didnt have the later start time. the 'L', i dont mind that tho did get a point. but cazzo! we need a HC 'in-tune' with the times and not stuck in the old ways. grab a lead and then has all midfield playing deep. give up an own goal off a free kick which was their only chance, to level and then everyone plows forward. why wait? even after Tonali gets a stupid red for stomping on the leg we still won possession. and on a side note, whats the purpose of having VAR if youre not going to reference it when someone makes a sliding tackle in the box from behind and clips the ankle? ehhh... i better get the Qualifiers cr*p up here before something happens to the keyboard.

just going to toss up what have.

UEFA WC Qualifiers: not worth the time. all we keep thinking is "cazzo!... those Conmebol boys are lucky to get time off". 3 matches crammed into 8 days? for the bigger countries? rosters stacked with players from club teams whom in UCL/UEL & fighting for table placement domestically. and dont forget this is a Euro season. they could care less about this right now and this is just bad timing to have to do. i'll even go so fr as to say its probably better that the regulars are NOT in there cause they arent going to go 100%. and you are not going to get the Kevins, Mbappes, Kanes,Lews of this planet motivated to play in Estonia or Kazak. for the smaller countries? 3-in-8 & criss-crossing europe in many cases. and havent even started talking about Covid. but at the same time we need to understand UEFA really has their hands tied because of this. and they cant do anything cause of the summer olympics which wipes out 2 possible months of scheduling. so got to cut them a little slack.
for me, this is Europa (UEL), and multiply it by 5x.
it doesnt take a genius to realize one better check the starting lineups. not even sure if some wer even released by their clubs to play and also...as well, theres travel restrictions on some.

for me, im sticking with the 'situations' and h*ll with lineups. would not advise to go heavy on any this week.  put tonights up first

Slovenia/Croatia under 2 @+130
Finland/Bosnia btts +O1.5 @+111

Gibraltar/Norway - in a group where Netherlands will grab one of the two slots, Round #2 is Norwegians biggie when hosting Turkey. Haal wont be in there the full 90 & Solb would be st*pid for not using all of his allotted subs. taking a shot at how feel this match will go. Norway -1.5 @-111(1st half), Gibraltar +4 @+102

Germany/Iceland - of all the big teams, Germans are usually the only ones I trust to open qualifying (be it Euros or WC) strongly. they tend to clobber opponents in the opener, that mentality. and with Iceland missing 2 key midfielders going to take a small shot with the Germans -2.5 @+104

did get the card prop in the opener as Michael got the assignment in Turkey. made all these over the wknd.  

1) Scotland
made one play already, just on "merit" alone cause its at '+' money.
3/28: (small for now) Israel to win @+210, -1 @+460 - what are the Israelis doing in the 200s? Scots host Austria, Israel hosts Denmark. but then Scots gotta fly to Tel Aviv in <3 days? you kidding me UEFA??? from the PEACHY Scottish weather clear across europe straight into a steambath? might add a little more if Israelis come out of their 1st match injury-free and no reds.

2) Iceland - huh? all roadies?? (germany to Armenia to Liech. seriously?). go play the Germans and then a 3000km flight to Armenia, laughing.

3/28:
Armenia +1/2 @-120

3) Austria/Faroe over 1.5 @+104 (1st half) 

put a gun to my head and round 3 going to be full of suprises.   and all those big teams have mass of players heading straight into sandwich spots.  then the CL.       im sure Pepe, Zidane, Flick, Poch sitting on pins & needles right now hoping nobody gets sent to treatment table.

Incredible. You nailed that Norway match in the most improbable way. Nice work. 

Spec

Spec  Belgium were not flashy, but still 3-1. KDB was the best player on the pitch by far. A lot of sloppy passes etc. by a lot of players, hope it doesn't become a habit.....

still annoyed at the U21 draw.  ehhh.     nothing new with the Lions earlier. switz a decent side yet still.... 

Whiskey    fortunate with that one but will take it. hope all is well with you

Ben    as always & tks fer stopping by

Ganda   looks like Martinez might send everyone to Czech then give everyone the day off in 3rd round. scheduling works out nicely for him.  

U21s:

Italy to win @-115 (L)
Slovenia/Spain over 3.5 @+160 (L)
Germany -1.5 @+110 (W)
Romania +1/2 @+120 (W)

WCQs:

Turkey/Holland over 5 cards (W),  Slovenia/Croatia under 2 @+130 (W)
Finland/Bosnia btts +O1.5 @+111 (W)
Norway -1.5 @-111(1st half), Gibraltar +4 @+102 (W, W)

Pending: 

U21s:

Portugal/Croatia under 2.5 @+105

3/28: (small for now)
Israel to win @+210, -1 @+460
Armenia +1/2 @-120
Austria/Faroe over 1.5 @+104 (1st half)

WCQ:

Germany -2.5 @+104

just tossing out what have.

Adding:

Africa:
Ivory Coast to win @-133 (fri)
Tunisia TT over 1 @-115, Libya/Tunisia over 2.5 @+175 (thur)

U21s:

Pending: Port/Croat U2.5 @+105

France/Denmark - many think Danes will be the 'suprise' this year. missed out on advancing 2 years ago due to pts. a very solid team, and very well-organized in the back for this level. been together for years. conceded just 9 goals in a bloody-tough Qualifying group. French side lost in semis previously, like everyone else, are spit mirror image of their Mens side. suprised its this low, France only knows one style, kitchen-sink forward. their offense is actually their defense. only the elite offensive squads teams dare push forward vs them.worth a shot at this price over 2.5 @-120

WCQ:

pending:
Germany -2.5 @+104

Adding:  

Italy/NI - and so it begins. and this is our first match since Paolos passing, something which each individual player had given mention towards in some way,shape the past week. so theres no way in h*ll they arent giving 200% on Thursday. feel bad for Mancini, talk about a HC under the microscope - yeah, yeah, yeah... they ALL are but we missed the last WC and he is under incredible pressure, no different from previous decades, but again, it feels different this time around. well, anyways, its the opener, and we need a good...solid... result. (for me? given the opponent, im smelling one of our customary 2-0 scorelines from yesteryear) Giorgio/Bonuc in there so the backline will be straight as an arrow. but that middle of ours, (Jorghino is out)  its a fairly offensive minded group. Barella(inter),Veratt(psg),Loca/Bera have turned Serie A upside down the past few years over there in Sassuolo. perhaps toss in Chiesa too when hes ready. our midfield will probably be our biggest strength in 2 years time, quite a collection of talent we've assembled, perhaps not individual skill but the cohesion is there (what every head coach strives for) downside is we will ALWAYS be one hard tackle from going down a man (Verratti) you guys know it doesnt take much to get his fuse lit. for the love of dear god Marco STOP chasing opponents clear across the pitch if he take the ball from your feet.  up front looks like Mancini might give Cirro getting the nod. and we all agree, he shouldnt. the bigger the match? the harder it is to find him. and him an Lorenzo are not a good fit. Id rather see Bellotti in there. unbeaten at 22 and counting. heres to hoping #23. NI have actually found back of net in 8 of their past 10 roadies, a list which includes Germany, Holland, Austria, Bosnia. difficult places to play in so they should get few decent looks on Thursday. but they are/used to be a tough nut to crack but are missing 4 regulars (including their GK). for fun, toss a little on Azzurri to score in both halves @-130  could care less if it ends 1-0, just get the 'w'

adding for fun:
Moldova/Faroe - not sure I get this line. in past 18 months Moldovans couldnt even beat Kosovo and lost to Andorra. We played them in a friendly back in Oct and theyre a pretty bad side, Mancini approached it with our bench squad & a defensive 'tune-up' yet we still led 5-0 at the half. Faroe nothing to write home about, but they are no longer getting blown away quickly and a much improved side whom are starting to see players getting paychecks from Power 5 leagues so theres quality developing. but this is one bloody h*ll of a long trip for a team one shoudlnt trust too much on the road. key thing is, BOTH think they can beat each other, and its realistically each's only chance of getting pts from this group. Moldova/Faroe btts + O1.5 @+134, Faroe TT over 1 @+165

England/San Marino - well, since they are 'down there', an amateur team, sending bunch of kids to Wembley too. and since its the opener (doesnt matter whom Southgate puts out there). Belgium/Russia hung 9 on them last year i think. and if Cyprus, Russia, Belgium, Slovenia & Scotland - especially SCOTLAND - .......can all bang in 3+ before the whistle @home? Southgate might slam the brakes on in 2nd half . well.......for fun, toss a little on England TT O3 @+105 (1st half), Eng/SM over 3.5 @+150 (1st half)

GL to all 

Good luck today 

Regarding Faroe Islands today,they improved so much in recent years.I remember when their first eleven was assembled from 3 fishermen, 2 electrician, mailman.......now they have 13 professional players. I think that they can get a win against Moldova.

On that Italy to score in both halves too.... BOL today. 

Ivory Coast now -300. I’m going to get banned from my locals lol

U21:

Portugal/Croatia under 2.5 @+105 (W)
France/Denmark over 2.5 @-120 (L)

UEFA:
Germany -2.5 @+104 (W)
Italy score in both halves @-130 (L)
England TT O3 @+105 (1st half), Eng/SM over 3.5 @+150 (1st half) (P, L)
Moldova/Faroe btts + O1.5 @+134, Faroe TT over 1 @+165, (W, P)

Africa:
Ivory Coast to win @-133 (W)
Tunisia TT over 1 @-115, Libya/Tunisia over 2.5 @+175 (W, W)

decent evening and got the early one in africa.

Amad, have few mins tonight. about Faroe, exactly. wasnt trying to "spin" this or whatever; theyre still an 'automatic 3' vs all the bigger countries, but as you said, theyve gone from a bunch of 'locals within the community' to a pretty organized side. heard futbol is big up there, in these small countries, i think one of the things which contributes to success/improvement is that/when many see futbol as a means of "providing", an employment chance (not sure if explaining this properly) everything goes up. off topic, have you ever seen their pitch? as far as scenery goes, probably one of the top 5 in europe (club or natl for that matter)

Ganda, as you might imagine, we're just happy for the 'w'. when Cirro banged in that one right before the half ya just knew that play was hosed. would have been better had it stayed 1-0. ehhh.... will make it up for ya this wknd (if ur interested with U21s) a couple of really nice spots coming up.
by the way, is Martinez keeping everyone home for tomorrow do you know? aside from the Azzurri, i honestly havent been keeping tabs on the Qualifiers (apologies if it sounds dumb question)

Whisk , thats what i thought the line should have been when opened. ehhh.

will toss up what sent for U21s and add a few tmrw if time permits.  pretty much basically going to avoid the Qualifiers save the few already placed. 

WCQ: just going to most likely stick with the few plays already made. not in mood to check the lineups/missings, etc etc.  bigger countries most likely rotating, so you have bunch of guys out there whom havent spent much time together, on other end of it those smaller teams have to deal with fatigue on short turnarounds.  makes for a difficult situation.  and then theres the travel.   anyways:

3/28: (small for now)
Israel to win @+210, -1 @+460
Armenia +1/2 @-120
Austria/Faroe over 1.5 @+104 (1st half)

U21s: just posting what sent.  

U21s: (Round 2) the 'kids' are a little different from the 'adults'. Im not saying this WILL happen over the wknd & not entirely sure WHAT exactly happened, but when they changed the format of this thing 5 years ago by expanding to 12 teams and adding a 3rd Group, these 2nd rounders have been blowing waaaaay over the totals. normally, youd keep things tight to give yourself a fighting chance to advance for the last match. maybe its due to having one game under their belts, or coaches wanting to secure advancement and make the 3rd game meaningless, have no clue. but things had gone upside down the past two Euros.

thoughts/commentary: agreed, along with the coaching. this is the thing with the 'kids'. that LEARNING process. you see Tonali sitting there in the tunnel watching after his red? had that "what-the-****-did-i-just-do?" look on his face. their minds are going 200km per hour out there. Slov played nice & compact holding Spain scoreless at the half, but right after finally finding the net, without any sense of exaggeration, Spainish side could have easily banged in 7 instead of 3 as Slovenians simply all over the place. and with 3 of the more technically skilled/gifted squads dropping points (Lions, Netherlands, France - they all had 70% posession but couldnt put the ball in net) if these teams concede just once.... all h*ll will break loose. I wouldnt dare touch an under for any of the games, its too risky with these kids heads. besides, since that format change, theres only been 5 draws in last 36 Group matches the past 2 euros. and likewise, im just as suprised... NONE in the 2nd round - which is extremely strange. but i guess thats the kiddies for us.
so make some room for me ill join the party and celebrate our 'w' last night, congrats to those whom took the 2-0 scoreline, i should have listened to self: 8-match over 1.5 @+583

Hungary/Romania - Romanians are the better side in this one, backed them as they got a massive point vs Holland and hopefully can grab the 'w' before playing Germans in final game. Romania to win @-105, Hun/Rom O2.5 @-115

might add a few tomorrow.

GL to all 

Israel to win @+210, -1 @+460 (L, L)
Armenia +1/2 @-120 (W)
Austria/Faroe over 1.5 @+104 (1st half) (W)

Africa:
Ivory Coast to win @-133 (W)

busy wknd.  just tossing what discussed and plays.  kind of thought israelis unforunate there. but nonetheless a massive wknd and swept the U21s). and like clockwork, as mentioned from onset, Lions youth yet again. individually one of the most talented teams, yet once again just cant get it together. technically, they arent out of it yet (need to beat Croats by a few + Switz lose to Portugal) but cazzo!! they were completely dominated by Portugal, ZERO shots on target? for a team whom was supposed to be a contender? nothing new to see this year I guess.
Our chances a little more 'simpler', win & advance. two games, two get redcarded. as discussed, Spain disgusting to watch. would make Flopper PROUD with all that acting going on. missed the 8 teamer from that one but happy nonetheless. but have mentioned this time & time again, whats going on within the Youth nowadays?.... being taught to "sell" fouls and get those PK's in the box, seeing this a LOT over the wknd. its sickening.
bunch of  drama-queens out there. 

U21's: tiebreaker scenarios will dictate how these game will be played. after sweeping the wknd, two plays, immediately, it know its not for a few days but....

Germany/Romania over 2.5 @-110 - Romanians been waiting 2 years; rematch of semis where it was level heading into injury time and then get a red card and end up losing 4-2. all I keep thinking about is Holland, theyre scr*wed if this ends 2-2. in any case, even a 1-1 draw wont help both these clubs here, especaially if Holland blows Hungary away as expected. Holland would get thru on goal difference, no matter what.

Holland -2.5 @+185, over 3.5 @+134

Azzurrini -1 @-102 - hammer this one. h*ll hath no fury. push at worst but we arent losing this one. (taking off tinted glasses), we are the far superior team with advancement at stake. (but then again, so was England & Holland). im still uncorking it for this one.

Spain -1 @+105, Spain TT over 1.5 @-130, - only way Czech can advance is if the other one (Ital/Slov) ends up a draw. either they fall behind or someone takes lead in other match and theyll have to open it up. they are in deep trouble once either of those scenarios takes place.

Wednesday:
England TT over 1.5 @+114 - its been a long time, almost a generation, since anyone has been held scoreless through Group stages. and I'll be d*mned if its going to be THIS squad next. should hammer this one - h*ll, they need 3 just to start thinking of advancing - but ehhhh,

lets try this one more time:
8 match over 1.5 @+461

UEFA WCQ:

**** slovenia latvia malta france iceland azzurri faroe hungary portugal **** ALL in that nasty consecutive roadie on short rest spot next week (possibly even toss in norway too as from what I can tell, looks like their home game is going to be played in Spain this wknd - thats actually 3 straight for them, nice catch)

Luxembourg/Portugal - hit a nice one over the wknd as the rested home side beat a spiralling Irish team about set to sack their manager by blowing their lead in Belgrade. Lux the past 5 years have made probably the biggest climb of any UEFA country in FIFA bull-***** rankings (something like 60 places). now they get to face a Portugal side minus CR7 (*** im assuming this days in advance because he was in there the previous two matches***). these two were paired in Groups during Euro Qualifiers recently and Port won both fairly easily dominating posession. but -yet again - Lux gets to play an opponent whom just blew a lead in Belgrade & you guys know how physically draining it can be to play the Serbs. juice on a '2' with a team playing a consecutive roadie on short rest & their 3rd in less than a week? wont always win these but ill take it everytime. Luxembourg +2 @+116

Liech/Iceland - on one side, dont ever ask a bad team to cover a spread. on the other? Iceland playing their THIRD consecutive roadie in under a week, 8000+km criss-crossing europe, with now a very thin roster.
already has this circled last week anyways small play tho, these guys are bad.. Liech +2.5 @-120

Cyprus/Slovenia - PASS. Slovenians just played Russia, but was in Sochi, not Moscow; cuts the travel in half practically.

Turkey/Latvia - tho theyll get the '3', not sure if I want to be backing the Turks full game, spent a lot of energy beating Holland/Norway to take control of the group in the early stages. Turkey -1.5 @+150 (1st half), Turkey/Latvia O1.5 @+110 (1st half)

Croatia/Malta - Croats, even w/out possibly Luka and a few others getting rested, are still going to thump one of the weakest in the UEFA. Croatia/Malta over 1.5 @+114 (1st half)

Wednesday: lets do this one more time.
correct score Italy 2-0 @+500

***EDIT***
Mont/Norway - why is this line moving other way? home side rested most regulars for that cakewalk vs Gibraltar; norwegians had a biggie vs Turks & were blown away in process. they have literally 7-8 whom played the full 90 and then have this long trip to Montenegro. got to wonder how much left in their tank vs a fairly rested opponent. especially Haaland whom started all 3 games, Dort cant be too happy about this, head straight into a huge domestic match on wknd then ManC in Qtrs?? anyways, still kicking self for not taking Armenians on the outrights last sat so toss some on Montenegro @+320 tomorrow tho im smelling a draw. you guys know what a pain in the butt it is to play any of those countries up there, the whole lot of them (serbs, croats, bosnians, kosovo) toss some on the btts @-110 to protect self.

GL to all