Sweem's Monday 'bigger' play

Monday preparation here..
One funny main play where I find the odds completely wrong, and I would not be surprised if we find these very much cut by game time. Lower division but much value to grab.

Sweden, Division 1 Norra
Umea - Lulea: Pick: Lulea Dnb @ 2.10 (5 u)

Home team are dead last in the league, this is a derby of two northern based clubs, but Umea state officially that they only have 8 healthy players out of the entire squad at 20 players. This means several key figures are out due to various reasons. H2h Umea have always had an edge, but Lulea are doing better this season, and moreover have a national player of Sierra Leone, which isn't that fancy but..considering the low division we are in, that is quite an achievement. I see Lulea winning this by 2-3 goals if everything goes according to circumstances and if they do not let up. Therefore, I have also placed 1 unit on -1 EH (win by two or more) @ 7.00

1. IFK Lulea DnB @ 2.10 (5 u)
2. IFK Lulea -1 EH @ 7.00 (1 u)

Long shot with the handicap but in this game it seems possible when the hosts need to fill out their field with some reserves and youths to be able to field a team. Imagine yourself, the worst team in the league having only 8 players to their disposal healthy enough to be fielded, and not all of these are even regulars. The price should logically be DnB about 1.50 with these circumstances in mind.

Hope this can be the bomb of the year for me so far, risking a couple of units here for a potentially massive profit. I like to be covered by the Draw No Bet, so at least the 5 units are returned if for some reason the visitors would struggle or get an early sending off to ruin it.

BOL!

BOL

good luck with this one bro..

Cheers guys, very interested in following this line movement now as the info has just been "official" for a couple of hours and still no major adjustment in the price.

Liosha - yep, it's just asia that are doing something (all odds in the world are moving thanks to action in asia) It took a raise, now going down again, here the downfall should start.

Something is going on. Leads me to believe the fix is in

sweem, I ride with you 

Now at -115 @bet365. Any further thoughts? Do you think it might be better to take them at +0.25 or +0.5? Or do you stick to your DnB?

Umeå have managed to compile a team using some "sick" players that should not be playing, but they got some back who were on the verge of being out, thereof the odds have not dropped on Luleå, but increased.

Umeå with a squad of some harm, playing with some ill players, doesn't feel like they will be able to give a 100% performance. Liking Luleå in this spot still, they miss one midfielder but get's another one back. Two teams in seek of form,

Slightly more uncertainty now, If I could I would narrow it down to a 3 unit play instead of 5, but looks like a solid shot at DnB still

Okay, im in the boat with 50€ 

Great start by Luleå, odds dropped from 4.00 - 2.75 after 10 minutes already, good pressure by the visitors as expected. Note that Umea's best player begins on the bench, as he is sick, he will likely play 30 minutes at most

ugh.. down 1-0 still have faith come on LULEA!

The goal came after a corner, by debutant player.. right after Luleå hit the crossbar, very unlogical goal but if the match picture keeps going - we will be rewarded sooner or later

1-1  19 mins to go

One more come on Lulela ( before today I didn't know a team or town like this existed)  lol

YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!  thank you Sir

BOOM

 

Wow wtf just happened !?

2-3 VICTORY!

we won, don't care how  we won!!!

I was watching the score on soccer24 and saw they tied it 2-2 and then lost the lead 3-2 goal was waved off and then we scored last second...just need st Patricks over 2.5 to finish off the last leg of a parlay to win 2k!!