YTD (SOCCER): 23-22-3 (BIG PLAY!!!: 7-6-2)
Brutal day of nothing yesterday, dropping some coin and some big plays. The games today are much more attractive, at least for me, so tread carefully, if at all. I do usually back a bad day up with a sublime one but take it for what it's worth, I've already had 3 not great days and don't want to put too much emphasis on it since the season just kicked off. But I also dont' want to ignore a downturn in the way I view the games:
BTTS YES FEYENOORD/BARCELONA (-125)...BIG PLAY!!!:. There is little to no value in the Barcelona game other than the expectation that goals are coming. Feyenoord have been great but in the Dutch league which is still competitive. But they have talent and Barcelona haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 15 UCL games while Feyenoord have scored in 13 of their last 15 UCL group stage/league phase games and eight of Feyenoord’s last ten competitive matches saw both teams score.
STUTTGART TT OVER 2.5 (-183) & LIVERPOOL (-135) = +165: Stuttgart AVERAGE close to 4 goals a game on their home ground and they are playing Viking, the Norwegian side that is widely considered the bottom team here. We have seen surprises by teams like Bodo last year, but I dont' think that Viking are on the same level. I expect Stuttgart to score here and 3 is very doable given the competition. Liverpool know the UCL home games very well and have built such a strong home field advantage in this tournament. Atletico Madrid are in a bit of a funk given their results and the issues with Julian Alvarez. Add to that Atlético Madrid have never beaten an English side in the UCL group/league phase (D4, L6), losing their last three games against Liverpool and Liverpool are on a six-game winning streak against Spanish clubs at this stage of the UCL and I am a big believer. Oh, and Liverpool have never lost their opening game of a European Cup/UCL campaign when playing at home (W10, D2) which is super compelling. Sure, a draw could happen but Liverpool will have a home crowd energized and I think a victory coming their way. I couldn't just back the Stuttgart TT on their own.
Those are it for the early games. I will be back in a bit with the later ones. I'm a bit wary of Arsenal but we shall see what type of defense Napoli will be putting on the field to thwart them. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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