Sep 4-6 soccer: price before pick

I am changing one thing after last weekend: no more calling the most likely winner a bet unless the price clears fair value.

 Sat — Lens/Lorient X2: 46.7%, 2.14 fair, 2.25 minimum. Current range 2.60–2.70, 0.25u.

Sun — Marseille/Paris FC draw: 27.9%, 3.58 fair, 3.75 minimum. Around 4.00, 0.25u.

Passing on PSG at 1.36–1.42 and Arsenal around 1.67: both are likely winners in the model, but both prices are below my fair line. Provisional estimates only, and I will recheck the prices before kickoff. Nothing is guaranteed. 18+.