11/21 Write-up and Plays

 

1. Croatia/Armenia 1H over 1 (will take live at -130 or better): Croatia's at home w/ an opportunity to secure automatic qualification w/ a win. Last game in Latvia, Croatia came out guns blazing, banged in 2 goals in the first 15 min, and saw out the win. Think we see a similar approach today against Armenia, who have nothing to play for. 5/7 of Croatia's qualification games have gone under 2.5 goals and the last 4 qualification matches for Armenia have been under 2.5 so unless Armenia scores, I can't see the FG over hitting but I do think Croatia will want to have this done and dusted by halftime. Not a fan of drinking the pregame juice on over 1 so will wait for an opportunity to jump in live.

 

2 and 3. Uruguay/Bolivia 1H over 1 (will take live at -130 or better), Uruguay 1H over 1.5 (+147): The hx between these two screams goals (since 2010, 5/7 matches have seen 3+ goals including 6 goals 3x). Bolivia's road results in competition games since 2022? 1-0 loss to Paraguay, 5-1 loss to Brazil, 3-0 loss to Colombia, 4-1 loss to Venezuela, 3-0 loss to Peru. Books think hx continues w/ the total set at 3 (-133) and Uruguay's team total at 2.5 (-147). Bielsa has transformed Uruguay's attack and the early returns already look good having scored 2+ goals in every qualification game thus far except 1. At home and against a far inferior squad, the plus odds for Uruguay to score 2+ makes sense from a value standpoint. Interesting note that the last 3 games between these two in Uruguay has ended 4-2 and Uruguay hasn't given up a goal in their last 2 games against Argentina and Brazil so of course they'll give one up to Bolivia right? Will look to take Bolivia to score live in the 2H if they haven't by halftime. 

 

 

4. Canada/Jamaica 1H over 1 (-125): Canada is just a different beast at home. They have arguably the second most lethal attack in CONCACAF and can score goals in bunches (in competition games in Toronto since 2022, 2 vs US, 4 vs Jamaica, 4 vs Curacao, 4 vs Honduras, 2 vs Guadeloupe), and some of these games didn't feature their top stars like Alphonso Davis and Jonathan David. Last time these two played in Canada, Canada outshot Jamaica 20-2 (although Davies was missing for Canada and Jamaica's preferred attacking front was missing). Now w/ Jamaica down a goal w/ a chance to advance to the Nations League semifinal on the line, I think this game will feature goals similar to the Panama/Costa Rica game last night. Canada's team goal totals look enticing, but Canada's 1H over 0.5 (-156) and FG over 1.5 (-159) is too much juice. I'll take the 1H over expecting an open game (1^st leg featured 24 shots between the two teams w/ Canada dominating 18-6) and look for an in-game opportunity to take Canada's team goal totals.