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Liverpool FC must have been assembled by Boeing, because their wheels are coming off. -Lost the FA Cup Qtr final 3 weeks ago to bitter rivals Man U - OUT. Many predicted the announcement by Klopp leaving Liverpool was specifically orchestrated to give them an emotional boost, but while that might have worked initially, I think it actually set them up for an almighty emotional letdown. It's hard to keep feeding off that for half a season and I think their players have checked out. It makes Fulham's price at home extremely attractive for several reasons. Last time they met in the league, Marco Silva's men were leading at Anfield 3-2, before 2 late wonder goals stopped them from winning that game. What it shows us is they are not a good matchup for this Liverpool side and can cause them all kinds of problems. Fulham are no pushovers at home either having taken the scalps of both Tottenham and Arsenal this season...not bad...not bad at all. Their home record reads 9 wins - 1 draw - 6 defeats and have scored 3 or more goals on 7 different occasions. That should be respected and in Liverpool's case feared. The odds on Liverpool winning this game are simply crazy and fail to accurately reflect the current form of each side and the clear drop off in Liverpool's goal numbers. That can happen, oddsmakers use seasonal averages to smooth out their volatility, but astute punters that pick up on drops in form can get ahead of the handicapper and take advantage. Fulham to win @ 5.55 |
matt-e-matticle | 2 |
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Nice when a game plays out exactly as you expect. |
matt-e-matticle | 4 |
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There's a growing narrative that all these quarter final legs are going to continue to be full of goals. Perhaps, but if there were a game to potentially poke that narrative in the eye, then this is it. Why? 1. The game is delicately poised with neither side holding an advantage. That also means neither side comes in with any urgency to score ASAP, unlike a team that goes in a goal or more down. 2. Arsenal's defense in away games is rock solid and will be hard for Bayern to penetrate. Bayern also won't be afforded the kind of space they were given in the 1st leg. On the other side Bayern's defensive numbers at home have been quite good, so it won't be easy for Arsenal to break through IMO. 3. Both coaches are on the conservative side when it comes to tactics and planning. Tuchel especially which is why his record in cups is superior to his record in leagues, while Arteta showed his conservative approach when he chose to play for the 0-0 away to City when perhaps 3 pts was available to a coach a little more daring. Ultimately what it boils down to for me is a scenario where as long as the score remains goalless, both sides will remain patient and focused on scoring a single goal. If either side does that you can imagine they'll quickly adopt a shut-up shop tactic and start wasting time. I think in both instances each side would be capable of hanging on to a 1-0 lead late or perhaps we see a 1-1 scoreline and extra time. Under 2.5 @2.32 (Take the 3 at near evens if you are nervous and need some extra insurance)
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matt-e-matticle | 4 |
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2-2 FFS Liverpool didn't bring their shooting boots and were never scoring until a gift of a penalty at the end. Grrrrrrrrrrr... |
matt-e-matticle | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Martylee:
You really think United is going to hold up like that ? I’d love to play the under but I don’t think I can after that Chelsea performance I see what you are saying and it's a fair point, Utd have no business winning this game on current form, but history shows they can get up for this game because it's a hated rival that they call a "derby". I know long term if I play this bet at those odds I make more than I lose. I bet the value, Liverpool should not be this when Klopp has only won 10% of the time as manager. Incidentally the season they won the title they even drew this game and that was probably their best team in 30+ years. |
matt-e-matticle | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vaas187:
So city wins title? No idea. Arsenal aren't without a chance and Liverpool can still draw here and stay 1 pt ahead of Man City. I don't think this ends anyone's title challenge. |
matt-e-matticle | 7 |
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The market is pricing this game as though it's a mere formality. All and sundry are piling into Liverpool and anyone you ask or watch on TV is predicting a comfortable Liverpool win. Except, history shows that Klopp always travels to Old Trafford as the favourite and he rarely returns with all 3 pts. In the 7 seasons that Klopp has been in charge of Liverpool he has won once at Old Trafford when there are fans in the stadium. He also won there during COVID but without fans it is as good as a friendly/exhibition match. IMO Man Utd should not be priced at such high odds, even if they are without some key defenders and are in bad form. For whatever reason this game is just a terrible matchup for Klopp teams and his players who seem to melt under the pressure. Therefore taking Man U to win and backing the 1-1 would have paid out 4 out of 6 times against Klopp's Liverpool - and we are getting well above plus money here. Man U win @ 4.69 GL |
matt-e-matticle | 7 |
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Some times you can analyze a game perfectly and still get beaten. Brutal loss. |
matt-e-matticle | 10 |
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Massive drift in the last 24 hours, with market finally catching wind of all these absences. Someone clearly asleep at the wheel at the big syndicates. Odds drifted from 1.54 to 1.66 now. I think it should be closer to $2 personally. Hopefully someone grabbed the better prices when I first posted this. |
matt-e-matticle | 10 |
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Update Salah is officially out
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matt-e-matticle | 10 |
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Liverpool have a major injury crisis on their hands with practically their entire 1st team out at the moment and some how the bookies have put them up at $1.54 to win this away game. Yuk! Liverpool's last 10 league games at the Forest ground reads...
LDDLDLLDLL So a ground that absolutely hate visiting. $1.54 is way too short and I suspect it will drift as we get closer to game time. Safer play would be to just back Forest Win @ $5.65 But I'm going to be greedy here and try and hit the bullseye with correct score plays on Gives you dutched odds of around ~ $4.50 |
matt-e-matticle | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Lewis1218:
@matt-e-matticle Damn Lukaku! What a miss! Just like the clear misses with Belgium in the World Cup! Wow! Like he was aiming for Ederson. Not to mention that Lukaku had earlier played GK on Demarco's on target header, get his body in the way to save it. Man City will ever be in the debt of Agent Lukaku. |
matt-e-matticle | 15 |
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Wow some big players made off with a lot of money here. I think they'd been hitting it all week and then finally the dam broke and the bookies couldn't hold the price back any longer and whoosh!!!
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matt-e-matticle | 5 |
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Lukaku how? Man City win, but it was less than convincing, but doesn't matter now. |
matt-e-matticle | 15 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jdukes0004:
@matt-e-matticle Excellent write-up!!! Thanks for sharing your insight. I can tell you really follow futbol. This game smells like 1-1 and Man City wins in extra time 2-1 or 3-1. Thanks mate! |
matt-e-matticle | 15 |
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The under in the UCL final is getting absolutely smashed late. In the last 10 minutes a lone the under has tightened 5 pts. That's a significant move. |
matt-e-matticle | 5 |
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Good advice. Just another game in the broader context of anyones betting bank roll. |
matt-e-matticle | 15 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Beanerweaner:
Nice write up. I respect the +1.25 but won’t play it. my lean so far is haaland anytime and city win. I don’t see how haaland is denied here. I just don’t. Whether it’s a 1-1 score line @ 90mins is to be seen. I jus think this game as a whole lines up drastically different than years past. Throw all the other shit from previous years out the window here. I've always felt this game could produce a few goals and 0-0 was an unlikely scoreline. I think in that scenario Haaland is scoring. My biggest concern with City and was with the -1.25 handicap is when they have control even with just a 1 goal lead in a game and the final whistle approaches they can play keepings and not go for more goals. It's one of the most infuriating things about them as a team from a punting perspective and has to be factored into this game. |
matt-e-matticle | 15 |
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I guess the obvious negative for Man City which I didn't really touch on was the psychological baggage they take into this game from all their past failings in this competition. Pep seems confident they shrug it off every year, but when it keeps happening repeatedly it does raise questions. |
matt-e-matticle | 15 |
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As a side note, a crazy thought that occurred to me looking through Inter's results in the Champions League this season is that they drawn 3-3 twice against opponents who have had 60%+ possession. Anyone recall what happened last time a team from England played a team from Milan at the Ataturk Stadium in the Champions League final??? Nah surely not. But I'll definitely be putting a coin or 2 on it just in case. I'm keen to here other people's thoughts on why they think Inter can win this or perhaps reason why they can confidently refute some of my concerns about City's chances. |
matt-e-matticle | 15 |
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