Kenrock333

Record: 38-32-2

Phillies -1 1/2 (+106)

Ranger Suarez has been lights out with a 0.83 ERA over his last five starts and owns the Marlins historically (3-0, 2.00 ERA L3 vs MIA). Philly's won by 2+ runs in 11 of his last 15 wins, and now draws a rookie making his first 2025 start. Miami's bullpen is taxed (14 IP L3), and their defense ranks bottom 3 in runs allowed. +106 is value. 

Good Luck!

Record: 38-31-2

A's +100

Good Luck!

Record: 38-30-2

Marlins -103

Good Luck!

Record: 72-73-2

Thunder -9

Good Luck!

Record: 38-29-2

Astros -1 1/2 (+145)

Maybe I'm just thick, but I'm going back to the runline one more time. The Astros lefty Brandon Walter has looked great since returning to the major and the Twins are scoring a half run less versus southpaws. Take the 'Stros and hopefully their superior bullpen can help them extend the margin. 

Good Luck!

Record: 38-28-2

Phillies -1 1/2 (+130)

We've seen this movie before. Same pitchers, similar setup, and Philly rolled in that spot. Sanchez has the Jays' number, and Francis simply doesn't belong in a high-leverage starting role. Expect early runs from the Phils, and unless their bullpen collapses late, they should win this one by margin again. Lay the -1 1/2. 

Good Luck!

Record: 38-27-2

Red Sox -1 1/2 (+145)

This is a fade of Ryan Yarbrough, plain and simple. He's coughed up 13 earned runs in his last two vs Boston and now heads into Fenway where contact pitchers go to die. The Sox have scored 35 runs over their last five at home and have torched the Yankees for 21 runs the past two matches (back in NY). Crochet also got roughed up the last time he faced the Yanks but he gives us a decided edge on the mound based on his body of work this season. Value at +145 is too good to pass. 

Good Luck!

Record: 71-73-2

Thunder -6

Good Luck!

Record: 37-27-2

Cubs -209

Good Luck!

Record: 37-27-1

Yankees/Royals UNDER 9 -121

Good Luck!

Record: 71-72-2

Thunder -5 1/2

Good Luck!

Padres -124

Good Luck!

Record: 36-26-1

Phillies -115

Mick Abel has completely shut down opposing lineups  through his first two MLB starts, posting a microscopic 0.79 ERA while allowing just four earned runs across 11.1 innings of work. The Cubs are getting torched on the road lately, going just 2-4 SU in their last six away games while averaging only 3.8 runs per contest. Philadelphia is absolutely cooking at Citizens Bank Park with a 20-12 home record and 5-1 SU mark in their last six games against Chicago at home. Colin Rea has surrendered 12 earned runs over his last three starts (15.1 IP) for a bloated 7.04 ERA in that span. The sharp money moved this line from a pick'em to Phillies -115. 

Record: 35-26-1

Rays ML (-105)

Shane Baz has completely dominated the current Red Sox roster, holding them to a pathetic .116 batting average with a microscopic .179 wOBA across 47 plate appearances. Boston hitters are managing just an 87.9 MPH exit velocity against Baz -well below league average - while he's striking out 36.2% of their batters. The Rays are 11-1 versus the runline in their last 12 games at Fenway Park and 10-2 straight up in that span. Boston limps in at 1-4 SU in their last 5 home games while Tampa Bay brings superior pitching and bullpen depth. This is a road team getting a bankroll friendly line. 

Good Luck!

Record: 70-72-2

Pacers/Thunder OVER 227 1/2 (-110)

Game 1 stayed Under, but OKC shot just 39.8% and still scored 110. Both teams rank top 7 in scoring and pace. Expect better shooting and a faster tempo to clear this number. 

Good Luck!

Record: 34-26-1

Blue Jays/Twins OVER 8 (-110)

Toronto has scored 5+ in 7 of its last 9 and faces Joe Ryan, who's been hittable against this lineup. Minnesota has plated 4+ in 5 of 6, and the wind is forecast to blow out at 15 MPH. Bowden Francis leads MLB in HRs allowed (17 in just 57 IP) and is coming off a 6 ER meltdown in 1.2 innings. This park, weather, and matchup all lean toward fireworks. 

Good Luck!

Record: 34-25-1

Blue Jays/Twins UNDER 8 (-113)

This total feels half a run too high given the matchup. Minnesota is 23-35-4 O/U on the year (57.4% to the Under) and allows just 3.04 runs/game at home, ranking 3rd in MLB in home defense. Toronto has gone Under in 5 of its last 7 road games and averages only 3.04 runs/game on the road against top-tier pitching. Gausman and Paddack can each pitch deep, and both bullpens are rested. Two of the strongest AL Under trends collide in a pitcher-friendly park during a daytime start. 

Good Luck!

Record: 34-24-1

Royals -1 1/2 (+118)

Kansas City's covered in 14 of the last 19 against Chicago and is riding a 5-game streak over the Sox. Lugo's 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA in his last three vs. CHW, and Martin got shelled the last time these teams met. Better starter, hotter bats, better bullpen - Royals should roll. 

Good Luck!

Record: 70-71-2

Thunder -9 1/2

Good Luck!

Record: 33-24-1

Orioles/Mariners UNDER 7 1/2 (-109)

Woo has been a wall at home (2.56 ERA), and Eflin's coming off a 7-inning shutout. Four of the last five between these clubs have stayed under, and both pens are rested. Day game, pitcher's park, trending under. 

Good Luck!