Jetnoyz

For a team to be competitive , they must average 

>25 pts and keep their opponents < 20. 
 
KC got exposed at the  Super Bowl because many of their were one score wins were lucky.         Philly won because they were well balanced …….  I didn’t see Barkley to go low on yardage, I guess the well went dry after cracking 2000 yds .   

@Jetnoyz

Let me add 3 More games I like:

Cubs - pitcher @ 2.4 with 110 k’s, 

Oakland A’s,  by the way, I’m not drunk (yet) ! they are playing AZ (last 10 games. 1-9). 
Dodgers : young pitcher 

key injuries : Pena (Hou), Buxton(Minn), judge (yankee) 

Top 3 ……

1.  SD - pitcher @ 3.6 era, bullpen 3.5 & in a 6 game win  streak.

2. Mil- pitcher @2.0 era, bullpen @ 3.6 era, 

3.  Pitt- pitcher @ 1.8 era, bullpen @3.7, 

hot teams(last 10) PITT 8-2, KC 7-3 , OAK 7-3 , MIA 7-3, SD has won last 6 

COLD: TB 2-8, ATL 2-8, Minn 3-7, AZ 1-9 ouch !

I can’t pick my best over/ under but I do see ….. 2 “exceptional” pitchers go toe 2 toe. 

Detroit (64 wins) , pitcher is 10-3, era 2.0, 171k Philly (62 wins) pitcher 9-4, era 2.5, 172 k          I was leaning for the “under” but it’s 6.5 

crazy scores yesterday: just random scores that doesn’t mean nothing today, just more analysis paralysis , I second guess my brain/heart/gut.   Mil 16 runs, Yankees 12, MIA 13, Pitt 16, Colo 17 

@Digitalkarma

As for the AFC North, 2024 stats …. 

- Detroit 15w  564pts off/342 pts defense

- Minn 14w  432pts off/ 332 pts defense

- GB 11W  460 pts off/ 338 defense 

- Detroit must know that GB is coming ,

- If GB can add 5-8 points to their offense , then it’s ON for that division. 
- Minn is in an awkward position, Their QB doesn’t have NFL numbers so they will not avg the previous 25 pts per game. 
…… god bless Chicago , they need help from some “ divine” powers !!!! 

If you think about preparation …..

that’s head coach vs head coach. 

Harbaugh is playing chess and 2 moves ahead of you .  

Last year, head coach for Detroit did some unorthodox plays on 4th down . I understand playing aggressive the first half of the game but one must punt it deep and not take the risk on the opponents 25 yard line. It backfired a couple of times but it goes goes with   “high risk / high reward”

Wow…. Didn’t see QB for Chargers balling out ….he did very well for riding the bench last year. 
He threw for two TD, throws were on the mark. 

Detroit looked “dysfunctional” , opening return was a fumble , their QB THREW 2 interceptions and team end up with FIVE turnovers .   
I called for an under …. I was wrong on that but Chargers were looking good and feeling good . 

Reds- slight edge, poor pitching in Atlanta 6.2 era

Mil - pitcher @ 3.5, bullpen 3.6 …. 64 w vs 44 w. 

Mets- 2 good pitchers, SF is in a 5 loss streak.          

Pitt - ok pitcher 4.7 vs 6.6 (Colo), Pitt has a 3.6 bullpen,  Pittt is riding 5 wins in a row. 

SD- 2.8 pitcher, 3.5 bullpen, playing at home. They also in a 5 game win streak. 

HOT teams: Pitt (8-2), KC- 7-3, Tx 7-3, Mets 7-3 but loss last 3, SD 6-4 but WON last 4. 

Cold Teams: TB 2-8, Atl 3-7, SF 2-8 lost last 5,      AZ 2-8 loss last 5. 

Best Over ……… Mil vs Wash

Best under: SF vs Mets 

Good luck in this crazy betting circus !!!!!!

last week the Ov/indet was @ 32.
The over / under is now 34. 
It takes a lot if money(across the sports books) to move it a point. It takes tons of money to move it two points.  I must be crazy but I still LOVE the under !!!!!!

@Eprince

Let’s wait -  you will see under throws and over throws from QB.  Some receivers will drop perfect throws to the chest and some ugly tackling. 

 I want to see good football and I’m really waiting for week 1 to show up.  There is a big difference from colllege ball to the NFL.  You will have 1-2% of the guys put up good numbers . 
I want to win $$$$$ ….. not throw it away . 

Only 3 games - travel day for next series.

1. Reds- pitcher is 8-1, era 2.0, 95 k’s. , 

2. Seattle- slight edge with home run power (152), playing at home . 

3. Tampa Bay- Yankees have a pitcher at 6.0 era (weak) , 4 starts with 2-2 and only 38 k’s. Yankees are stlll fighting for a win especially if their best player Is out - Judge(elbow). 

baseball is really tough to figure out. 
Good Luck !!!!

1. Cleveland won 5-0. (Win)

2. Mil LOST to Cubs, I thought the pitching was good enough but I failed to realize that Cubs has plenty of home run power (156).

3 Tx Rangers - win , evenly matched but Tx had a better pitcher.    

I didn’t see Boston crushing it with 13 runs . A nice win for them …. Time to see Thursday games 

I believe these two young but rusty QB are going to lay some low scoring points.   The over / under is set at 32.   The first two weeks are going to be “ugly” and hard to watch .   Better chance to hit some overs on week 3.   The only team that put up good numbers for all 3 weeks in the 2024 pre season was Denver…… 

Bad teams try harder in preseason . 
Good teams don’t break a sweat for the first 2 weeks.   There will be 90 guys on the team and in 3 weeks , about 38 guys will go home because they can’t throw , catch or even tackle . 

Atlanta - 5.7 Era

Hou- 5.1 era

SD- 9.1 era

Colo: 5.2 era

Mia- 5.0 

Top 3 pics :

1. Cleveland - better pitcher than Colo, Colo’s pitcher is pulling 2w-10loss,5.6 era

2. Mil- strong pitcher 12 wins/2.8era/131 k’s/,riding 3wins. 
3. Tx Ranger: pitcher 8-3, 1.5 era,101k’s ‘s , Angels are not backing down - 3wins row. 

hot teams: Mil 7-3 -won last 3, Tx Ranger7-3 but loss last 2, Mets 7-3 but loss last 2/ Balt has won last 5. 
Cold teams: TB 3-7, ATL 2-8, SF 2-5 loss last 5

key injuries : Hou - Pena, Yankee -Judge,      Mets- Soto

quote of the day: If you fail to plan, plan to fail. 
Good luck out there !!!!!!

Tor & Balt was Early game.  The over / under set at 10. I noticed both pitchers allowing over 5.0 era . I was a little nervous but they pulled the over with 20 runs .

Double header was going to have much better pitchers ,I leaned for the under. Didn’t pick winner.

After scrubbing the games : I posted my two teams for the day. Detroit & KC . 

I stay away from 50/50. Unless they have their best hitter out for injuries. 

good luck, cheers and good night !!!!! $$$$$

As for me, I just crunch the numbers . 
look for small patterns and go with a hot team. 
Baseball is so “unpredictable” .  Good luck with your bets ….. I’m just a small time better.

there is a dude in Houston, they call him mattress Mack , a couple of years ago , he put 1 million on the Astros , it paid him back 40-1z.

that’s right …… he put 40 million is a wheelbarrow , google it ….. it’s crazy ,

As stated , two bad pitchers usually produce the OVER while 2 good pitchers produce the Unders !

After yesterday’s beat down ….

I need to be careful, 2 best picks are going to be:

-Detroit overall , slight edge with pitching.     (2 wins)

- KC  better pitching 2.9 & 3.5 in the bullpen. Atlanta’s pitcher is throwing a stinky 5.2 , below average bullpen 4.1 

fighting teams in last 10 games:

Toronto 7-3,  Tx 8-2, Mets 7-3, Mil 7-3 

struggling teams (stinky) : Det 3-7, Atl 3-7,      SF 2-8 

Be careful , they are the over/under to 10 ,

I thought it was 8.5  !!!!!!

Tor vs Balt - both pitchers over 5rra , they scored 14 runs yesterday !!!!

I like the over ….  
If they partied last night , Dragging ass in the morning Ang they can’t hit the ball.  

I still like the over, these guys are playing a double header , 2nd game , better pitchers .