Ih8coldweather

Other futures:

My favorite future is...

MIKE VRAVEL COACH OF THE YEAR - 10/1 ODDS

I love this bet. The patriots have the second easiest schedule. They upgraded and had a great draft, drafting Will Campbell at tackle and added Milton Williams and Carlton Davis in FA. I think they had one of the better draft and free agencies this offseason. COY classically goes to teams that were notoriously bad the year before that had a large jump the following year (see Kevin O'Connell last year). I think that the Pats will finish second in the division behind the Bills, and I see them winning 10 games and getting a wild card spot in the AFC. I think this sets up Vrabel nicely to win coach of the year.

Other futures:

Sean Payton COY 25/1

Mykel Williams Defensive ROY 14/1

DPOY:

Derrick Stingley 55/1

Fred Warner 90/1

Maxx Crosby 13/1

@insatiable

@Macwestie1

Good luck this season guys!!

@keven vanlith

Futures bets:

Steelers 40/1 to win SB - small

Baltimore Ravens to win SB 7/1 

Buffalo Bills to win SB 7/1 

I think the winner of the SB is going to be an AFC team. The top teams are Baltimore > Bills > Chiefs. I think that the Bills have issues on defense. They lack depth at CB, their rookie CB is injured at T. White is a shell of himself. Josh Allen can overcome all of this but it would really help if they could help him on defense. I think the AFC championship game will be the Ravens with either the Bills or Chiefs/Steelers. I think that the Bengals, despite their potent offense, will not have enough on defense to help the offense win games against playoff caliber teams. 

The Chiefs....I think they will be back with a vengeance. They have real issues on the O-line, with the loss of Joe Thuney, but the Rookie LT looks promising. I think Kelce will probably have a better year than most expect, and I think that Pat Mahomes will be a front runner for MVP with Lamar when the season ends.

I did Round Robin the exacta matchups at Circa with the Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs with the Eagles and 49ers and Packers. This creates ample hedging opportunities at the end of the year come playoff time. 

Added:

Cleveland Browns +5

Carolina Panthers +4

Patriots -2.5

@C-70Blues

 Oh look, its the loser again. I am more interested in your SB prediction.

Baltimore Ravens. 

Broncos at Mile High vs a Rookie QB who is sure to be an upgrade from Will Levis. Still, I cant think of a worse spot for a rookie than going up against this top 3 defensive unit for the Broncos. Broncos just signed Nick Bonitto, and for good reason. I think he is going to be bringing pressure all game long to Cam Ward. I don't see how this Tennessee offense is going to be able to manufacture sustainable drives against this defense at altitude. I am excited to see Greenlaw and Huffanga both back from injury, I anticipate they will be flying around to the ball and making plays. Both are pro-bowl caliber plays and Huffanga was an all-pro before he got injured. I also give the major coaching advantage to Sean Payton at home

What is going on fam! New year of Football, thank god the NFL is back. Just got back from Vegas to register for the Circa Millions, first time doing this. I hope everyone had an excellent summer and is ready to get back in on the action. I have a lot of futures action that will try to recap, but for now I am going to post my week 1 plays. I did get these lines early because, well, if you wait until 2 days before the games start you wont get CLV or the best of the number. After all, these lines have been posted all summer and have been beat into place.

NYG +7 (-120) - 5 unit play

Steelers -2.5 (-130) - 4 unit play

Broncos -7 (-120) - 5 unit play

Yes, I realize these lines have all moved, except for the Steelers -2.5. I would still play the Giants at +6 and the Steelers at -2.5, I would not put Denver in -120 teasers if you can still find a Denver -8.5 (some books have 9?)

NYG - I think the Giants can be sneaky good. Russel Wilson or Jaxon Dart at QB is an upgrade from Daniel Jones, and their O-line, when healthy, has the capability of being a solid unit. The defense is what is the most impressive, however. They have, probably, three best edge rushers in Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibideaux, and Abdul Carter. They also have Dexter Lawrence in the middle. Who is getting double teamed and who is going to have a free edge rush? Just too many points for a divisional game against a Commanders squad that should regress back to the mean. Their O-line is no match for this front 7. I love Jayden McDaniels but could he have a Sophomore slump like CJ Stroud?

Steelers - Have arguably one of the best defensive units. The Jets start Justin Fields at QB. Can the guy throw? How is he going to move the ball against this defense. One could say the same about Rodgers but I like the Steelers in this revenge spot for AR. The deciding factor in this game is the fact that the Jets O-line will not be able to block the Steelers pass rush. Alija-Vera Tucker, their first round pick, is hurt once again with another season ending injury. Safe to say this guy probably isn't going to be playing much longer in the NFL. They move Joe Tippman, their starting C to Guard and Josh Meyers, who actually played center for the Packers moves to C. A lot of shifting for the line before the game. I think Fields will be under duress all game and I see him good for a couple of sacks and an INT to set the Steelers up in good field position. 

Yankees are fucking PATHETIC.

Thunder -5 FIRST HALF.....NEVER A DOUBT 

What up covers family, I am in Vegas for WSOP and placing some action on the the NBA finals....

After going to Game 7 of the Nuggets/Thunder Game in Oklahoma City, one thing that became very clear to me was the home court advantage that the Thunder possess. It truly is unlike any other stadium. The only time I have every been to a louder stadium was in KC at Arrowhead. The crowd was so loud, they were standing the entire time, and they truly added the extra "juice" to the Thunder after they went down in the first quarter to Denver.

The betting public favors Indiana in this matchup. It appears that almost 60% of the wagers have come on Indiana and despite this the line moved from 9 to 9.5. 

What gives in this matchup....

Well, the key is going to be the OKC Defense. They have players and the perimeter defenders to shut down this Pacers team, and specifically Tyrese Halliburton. If he pulls of some magic again like he did against the Knicks in game 1, I will be shocked. I expect Lou Dort and Alex Caruso to completely harass him and pick him up full court. The Indiana offense runs through Haliburton and if he is being harassed from the back court, and things are made difficult on him with good on ball defense, I could see this Pacers pace slowing down and it becoming difficult for them to find buckets, especially if Siakam or Nembhard have bad shooting nights. I would also look for under 18 points for Haliburton..

OKC is the better rebounding team. OKC has the better defense. Both teams like to push pace and both have depth and a deep bench.

It is going to be really loud and the energy will be electric in OKC. Thunder will pull away in the second and third quarter. Public on the Pacers...even better.

Thunder -5 First Half

Thunder -9 FG

This is the game script. 

They don't need Foster. The Knicks are tough at home. The Garden will be loud. Thibs will have his guys ready and the refs will let them play and rough up Haliburton and Co. I imagine the pace will be slower and Knicks start out hot throwing the first big punch. BUT....Pacers have been known to sneak back in to games which is why I really like the first half line much better than the FG, in case New York implodes. Don't see it happening though...

Hey team, really like Boston and home in this spot. Crochet has been playing really well. I give the edge in pitching to Boston, seems like a good situational spot. The ML was -125 now it is -106, assuming some big money came in on the Braves. What gives? What information does someone know that we are missing. This was probably my favorite play and now I have questions about the position…

Let’s goooo BC

Wednesday, May 14th....Heavy MLB Day today..

GAMES

Mets F5 -0.5 (-160) - 5 units 

Rangers F5 -0.5 (-140) - 5 units 

Dodgers FG -1.5 (-125) - 5 units 

Yankees ML (-120) - 2.5 units 

OVER/UNDERS

Yankees TT OVER 4.5(+112) - 2 units

Red Sox/Tigers OVER 7 (-115) - 1 unit

TEAM TOTAL

Pirates F5 TT UNDER 1.5 (-140) - 1 unit

Rangers TT OVER 5.5 (+108) -  1 unit

TEAM TO SCORE FIRST

METS SCORE FIRST ML (-125) - 2 units

RANGERS SCORE FIRST ML (-115) - 2 units

@CJL1989

 I did the same

@magicmike45

 I’m on the same. Add first five to it too.

You bet the Celtics when they lose as a favorite when they’re a favored again.

Since 2020, in that spot, when losing as a favorite when they are favored again, they’re 15-3 ATS, which is 83%.

@crafty_plug

 @Tomdog1977

 
Hey you fools? How you guys doing? Guess you don’t cap at 100%. Looks like we didn’t even need the points. 

Square bettors.